I tend to follow certain markers. If it's snowing hard in Evansville it's not snowing much here. If the SLP track is taking the little Egypt route I'm in business. Chicago seems more in play with these southern systems since you'll get this LES signal to show up fluffing up totals. Sometimes comes to fruition; a lot of times doesn't. I always figure qpf is overdone on the margins and will erode away as event nears provided there's no consensual shift of the models NW