Cary67

Needs a few more runs to bring up warm air NAM and Euro shows

Trending towards ZR and cold rain event here

As an Illini grad he's been mentally abused by his sports teams over the years to think he will always be let down. Its just being projected into his weather thoughts.lol

Actually still dont think this ever materializes into more then cold rain and a little slop on the back end. Really only have the Euro pointing to a significant snowfall. Waiting for it to cave to blah GFS and lack of cold air CMC. The wacky NAM will fall in line last minute with a poof its gone run inside 24 hrs. However recent data: UKMET and GEFS may hold out some hope.

Will send pics

At this point LOT doesnt seem to give NAM solution much weight. Low probability of heavy ice accretion due to several factors. Heavier precip rates, possible convective element producing sleet, wet bulb temps 28-30F and latent heat making it less likely. Looked for lighter ice accums far NW. Low confidence in deformation band swinging through Sat with snow but kept it as possible. Only thing that seems locked in is a lot of cold rain

That might make a difference in my area possibly. Shifting to more snow less ice maybe..or more likely dry slotted

Loving the Madison call. On bright side Euro has been overamping storms this year at longer range

Once the NAM is within 84 hrs you can pretty much lock it in

Just have the storm date with this as the header. Sorry for the copy right infringement thats sorta yours

At least some ensemble support. Not a bad look at this point

Bring out the needles,bring out the thread

I still think you will get 2-4 weeks of a wintry pattern but that may occur in February or even March/April in some diluted fashion. I am feeling more confident that this winter will grade out as average at best and possibly horrendous at worst. Grades will vary on the forum depending on if their yards got hit when we do shift to that wintry pattern. Unlike the NE that can pile up snow 40-60" in a short period of time the Lakes(outside of LES areas) and OV won't hence the great winter grades should already be off the table. Of course some may say one 20" blizzard makes a great winter. Not me..

"You can be mad as a mad dog about the way things went, you can curse the fates, but when it comes to the end, you just have to let it go," Benjamin Button

Indianapolis trying to score 2 in a row about a month apart

Granite Peak(Rib) looking good. Alpine Valley and Wilmot had their ski season but it was late October into mid November.lol

Take the small victories when you can. Just like beating NC A&T or is that AT&T

Just enjoy your 1 to 3" of wraparound.

May have been one of my favorite winters here

Not denying that. Just speculating that gradual warming could be responsible for both the recent above average snow totals and also the decline of snow averages over time as you reach a point where it gets just a bit warm on average to snow in our area. I just think that influence may come a bit quicker than some would like on this forum. At some point when you keep looking at global temp map averages that are almost completely red and yellow with just a couple blue patches it will catch up with you. But this is for another topic.

But not your kids. Anyways we shall see.

Thats just because more moisture is becoming available further north for areas like Marquette and International Falls. Chicago and MSP have benefitted in the last decade but continued warming will inevitably lead to lower snow totals over time. Beginning with southern areas first then working their way north. Chicago becomes St. Louis. MSP becomes Chicago. St. Louis becomes Little Rock. The areas that will benefit the most and the longest will be up along the Canadian border and the provinces of Canada

Most likely we will still receive that 2-3 weeks of winter sometime between now and late April. The question is when and none of the gurus know nor does anyone looking at models past 2 weeks. One of these times the EPS and the more clueless GEFS will show cold and it will verify but only after all kinds of false positives.

December snowfall prediction of not reaching double digits as a seasonal total looking good. Over/under on January finishing with 15" or less total is now on the table.

The futility comment was more in reference to posters stating that winter is done more than actually breaking record minimal snowfall records.