Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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WB 0Z Euro compared to 12Z at Day 7
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If I were awake I would not post it.
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I am being sincere. When you compare the GFS ensemble hour 144 to EPS 144, please explain why you think they are that different. I just don’t see it, I would like to understand.
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I am no expert. I just don’t see an appreciable difference at Day 6 between the 2 models at 18Z. When I compare the 12Z EPS to the 18Z EPS it is a tick different with more trough in the west….is it noise or a trend? We will know at 0Z.
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Unfortunately I agree…
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Correct; 144 is Day 6. Do those maps look much different?
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How are they much different at Day 6?
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WB 18Z EPS v. GEFS
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Hopefully it will be the GFS’s turn to cave over the next few days.
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WB 18Z GFS and EURO at 90 about the same.
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My point is if it can flip in 6 hours at Day 15, it can do the same at Day 10. We will know soon enough.
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The WB GFS is flipping around at range. Look at the end of its run now v 12Z. Patience is needed. We just don’t know…
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GFS v EURO
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WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z EURO at Day 10…
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I get the fact that we finally have a favorable pattern that supports a big storm. But one global model at range that is extrapolated has caused an hysteria I don’t get. Lucy is salivating on the sidelines….
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WB 12Z EPS at Day 10… probabilities seem low to me. What am I missing?
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My only point is beyond 5 days, unless there is strong model consensus, keep expectations in check or prepare to be disappointed again… (I need to heed my own advice..). It is cool that there is some potential in the second to third week of March but it is going to be another 5 days at least before anyone can forecast a big storm with any confidence.
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Keep expectations in check….Lucy is waiting on the sidelines. Hopefully a consensus by early next week but GFS/ GEFS is King until dethroned.
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JB is touting the potential for back to back storms between the 10th-15th so
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Cumulative. Nothing to show through Day 10.
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WB 0Z GEFS….ignoring the EURO for now, still mad at it!
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2030
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At this point happy to see that it looks like the advertised cold period is still on schedule for later next week. I’m not paying any attention to storm tracks until after the end of week storm clears out. Let’s see where we are with any discreet threats on March 5. Too many false hopes this year to get too engaged with a Hail Mary storm.
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WB 18Z GFS, our cumulative snow the next 2 weeks….
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Serious for a moment why do we think the EPS is right and the GEFS is wrong? It does not look nearly as good to my non expert eye….
