We are about seven days out and still in the game. Have not said that for 2 months. However I agree with the assessment that this first storm looks like a North or NW zone storm.
WB 12Z EPS…so if it reforms just in the right spot off the coast (far enough south and not inland) we can get wrap around and avoid being dry slotted.
Note: we don’t do complicated well in the DMV. Will need more luck than we have the last two years put together to pull this off.
Does anyone know how well the globals incorporate forecasted MJO values? Or do they just use the initial values. We are just pulling out of the null into 7 which is still warm, how well does the modeling “see” that we are heading into 8/1?