Weather Will

Good for the highest elevations....WB 18Z 3K NAM

NWS Sterling ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northern, southern and western Maryland, The District of Columbia, northern, northwest and western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 2 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. &&

WB 12Z EURO, dreaming of a white Christmas Eve?

We can move this to banter but I do post a lot of ensemble runs beyond 5 days. WB 12Z GEFS is colder this run at day 10.

I don't know why anyone cares what the GFS depicts beyond 5 days....

WB 12Z 3K NAM

On latest WB GEFS extended it takes us into the second week of January before the continent really starts to get cold. Hopefully before then we stay just cold enough with some moderate storms that slide to our south as already discussed. in terms of can kicking, the can keeps kicking on bringing sustained below normal temps. Let's see if this timeframe holds just in time for peak winter climo.

NWS Sterling: I like these graphics. They should incorporate into their bulletins (watches and warnings)

WB 0Z 3K NAM

WB 18Z GEFS, looks good...

Flood watch east of Frederick county MD.... Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- Spotsylvania-King George-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Greenbelt, Germantown, Bethesda, Sterling, Lexington Park, Annapolis, Laurel, Arlington, Fredericksburg, Cockeysville, Eldersburg, Gaithersburg, Herndon, Huntingtown, Manassas, Dale City, Leesburg, Severna Park, Falmouth, North Beach, Franconia, Elkton, Ellicott City, Arnold, Camp Springs, Falls Church, Dahlgren, Montclair, Reston, Damascus, Ashburn, Washington, Alexandria, Lake Ridge, College Park, Glen Burnie, St. Charles, Jarrettsville, Clinton, Chantilly, Silver Spring, California, Odenton, Westminster, Reisterstown, Dunkirk, Prince Frederick, Chesapeake Beach, Lusby, Severn, South Gate, Rockville, Bowie, Aberdeen, Centreville, Haymarket, Woodbridge, Annandale, Columbia, Lisbon, McLean, Suitland-Silver Hill, Waldorf, and Baltimore 132 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys, and Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Northwest Prince William, Spotsylvania and Stafford. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through early Monday morning * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - One to three inches of rain are mostly likely Sunday evening through early Monday morning. This amount of rain could cause flooding of small streams, creeks and urban areas. Localized amounts up to four inches are possible along and east of I-95.

People hate the snow maps but they tell me that we are in the game for the end of the month...couple of big hits to our south....WB 12Z GEFS.

There is snow cover N of the border (WB)

Next milestone for me is whether there is a distinct threat on our radar by the end of next weekend.

MJO progression supports colder temps as we enter 2024.

WB latest GEFS for first week of January everything still looks on track for a transition to a favorable pattern as we head into January. Nice to see that we ARE progressing into a more favorable pattern by the end of '23 as modeling/forecasters/ subject matter experts in this forum have predicted since at least Thanksgiving. Will it deliver big snow as we enter the heart of winter/ peak snow climo?! Hope so!!!

WB 18Z NAM, winds are crazy Sunday night....

Maybe a little snow too!

Another drought denting rain and wind storm on the way...

WB 6Z GFS, late weekend storm did tick east this run with heaviest rain and wind.

WB 0Z EPS has it too....

That will be our January 20 version!!!

WB 18Z GFS rain blizzard incoming....

WB 12Z EURO. Big story this run is a big drought denting storm and wind....