SnowDreamer

Here's the final chart up through 06Z, which is the last run before snow started. I will add the verify line once DCA reports total accumulations tomorrow. Please let me know if they report anything in the mean time, because I haven't seen anything from DCA since 7am. 

2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

Taking this to banter. This is what annoyed me the most this winter. It's not like it's just been super warm or a lack of precip. Places that have way worse snow climos than the DC area have gotten crazy winter weather and we've gotten jack crap for what, like the 4th straight year?

Add Jerusalem and Istanbul to that list btw

8 minutes ago, TSG said:

I mean I understand why people are frustrated but there were signs everywhere that this was a marginal setup with big bust potential. We didn't have anything close to model consensus even 24 hrs out.. The 3k NAM was showing pretty much exactly what's happening right now yesterday morning. A little stronger/snowier on the front end thump, but it had mixed sleet/snow already spreading up to NE MD starting a little after sunrise.

People are frustrated because we look at the models in aggregate. Nobody seriously expected the para to be right, and most people didn't seriously expect the 3k to be right either. There wasn't a single model I saw at 00Z last night which showed <2" of snow+sleet at DCA. For most people, that was the last guidance they saw. It was 2"+ of sleet (NAMs), or 2"+ of snow (everything else) at DCA. Yet we seem to have gotten the combo of mostly sleet like the NAMs said, but a much faster storm leading to lower accumulations. Maybe we get lucky tonight? But right now guidance looks like it may be a bust for DC across the board. 

25% dingers, 25% pingers, 25% zingers, 25% clangers

Hi, welcome to BillyBob's Weather Mart, how can I help you? What's that? Oh... no we ain't got that. But if you go to the North, East, or South they might have some. 

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Another relative lull in Burke.

I feel your pain.

The old formula for me used to be kuchera-1”. That was pretty reliable. Now it’s more like Kuchera-2” and push the mix line 25 miles northwest 

I say we ritual sacrifice @Warm Nose to the NAM twins and see if it helps.

70% sleet, 20% graupel, 10% pixie dust 

Well, the models that gave me bupkis snow gave me 2” sleet. Let’s see if that verifies 

PARA is trending closer to the parent, but it's still a high outlier by a good couple inches. 

40/20 without a cloud in sight. 2m temps higher than forecast per usual 

NAM twins making a BIG move in the viagra-direction for DCA. 

The run isn't over, but this 4.4" jack lolli on the 3k for DCA is hilarious. 

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Not much to love on the models today... unless we trust the Para

 

trust, no. Hug, yep

Been nervous about posting these for well... a long time. But here's my best guess:

9 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said:

Between model run question inspired by the IBM model posts before. 

Are all the major models entirely government-funded models? If so, it does seem to me that there should be market incentive to push the limits on modeling. For gov't purposes it may be sufficient to give people a 24-48 hour warning of inclement weather, allow preparations to be made to protect life and property, and make sure you have the salt trucks and plows deployed in the right places (and erring on the side of caution here is no big deal). But if I've got billions invested and it's going to be affected by ice or travel disruptions, I want to know 2 weeks ago. 

Science has limits and it may just be that there isn't much more that can be done. But if I was Elon Musk ...  

I agree that there's opportunity there. In fairness though, IBM does have a model (which we laugh at) and they are a leading supercomputer manufacturer. I think part of the problem may be data acquisition for model input. NWS has a large network to gather data that would be really expensive to replicate. I'm not sure that data is all readily accessible. The old data adage "garbage in, garbage out" is very accurate. So even if IBM or Musk could build an epic supercomputer and program top-notch physics into it, the model would still be crap without good data. 

Just now, mappy said:

Thanks, friend. I wasn't being serious, but appreciate you posting it all the same. 

I thought so, but we haven't really been talking about the ICON so I wasn't sure. That's actually the first I've looked at the ICON this storm 

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If the PARA doesn't back down, I guess tomorrow will test its chops vs the GFS.  World of difference

The para has been like a bully about giving DCA 8-12"... It just won't back down. Would be an EPIC coup if it wins. 

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

How about the Icon? Better or worse than the Para? NOGAPS? 

The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para. 

The para is just an outlier, IMO. It's not like it has support from other models anymore. It was abandoned by the parent GFS and the Ukie and it's trying to hold down the weenie fort all by its lonesome. I would weight it very low right now. 

Huge discrepancies in QPF right now on EURO vs. other models... Not too sure about it tbh. Even the typically dry 3k NAM has about .2" more for the NW crew than the EURO. 

34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Do you go back and do a horizontal line with the actual once the event is over?

Yup! Just a little reference line

Para is king of weenie town, other models converging on 2-4" for DCA, plus an inch of sleet or so. The sleet has a nice effect of moving overall totals closer together. Models with 4" snow have less sleet, CMC has 2" of sleet on top of that snow. 

Just now, griteater said:

12z IBM GRAF 4KM - https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1362080627659575300

 

Short pump fringed - toss