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SnowDreamer

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    January Banter 2022

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Taking this to banter, but can anyone explain or justify this man’s maps? Why are they habitually very bullish and (perhaps more importantly) why does his constituency not skewer him for constantly busting? Maybe it’s just MBY, but I usually see 2” less than is on these things. I just don’t get it. 

    540A60F1-A9CC-4AB8-B1BF-FDA0ECE95BF3.jpeg

    • Haha 1

    Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, understudyhero said:

    Pwc called it for Thursday citing widespread power outages for where the staff lives as a primary reason. 

    FCPS said this: Across Fairfax County, we continue to receive reports of roadways, sidewalks and pathways that remain unsafe for our students.

    January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

    BTW... the SREF's are mostly useless due to the crazy output of some of the members...but if I was going to use anything at all from them it would be the probabilities.   

    I personally find the precip type probabilities plume to be useful in looking for transition times in coastals!

    • Thanks 1

    January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

    Are you guys saying Tom is wrong around Baltimore or because of his totals further south? Because I feel 1-3 is very much in the cards around Baltimore, especially northern/western areas of Baltimore. 

    IMO if he’s riding the NAM hard (which isn’t his explanation), then the 1-3 is fine but a max of 5” anywhere in VA is a standout low against other Mets (and the guidance). 
     

    The bigger issue some of these guys are taking is that his explanation of low totals due to poor snow:liquid ratio seems unlikely given forecast temps in many areas. 

    • Like 1

    January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

    Not a weenie post, genuine intrigue: wonder what, if any impact the warmer than usual ocean water might have on the storm (death band, more juice to work with, etc.).

    A lot of this is known, but here's a CWG article that supports the idea.

    "Ken Kunkel, a senior scientist with the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, has been studying shifting extreme-precipitation trends in the United States for more than 20 years. A study he led in 2009 found an increasing trend of high snowfall seasons along the East Coast, as well as the emergence of a feast or famine pattern, where winters either over-deliver snow or underperform relative to the seasonal average.

    He said the physics involved in generating heavy snow suggest that climate change could be a factor in recent heavy snowstorms, given that the biggest snowfalls tend to occur when the air is near freezing, which enables the air to hold more moisture. A complicating factor, though, is that increasing air temperatures may be making what would’ve been a snowstorm 20 years ago into a cold rainstorm.

    Increasing sea-surface temperatures, Kunkel said, are boosting the snow potential of East Coast storms.

    “The oceans have been warming overall,” he said. “These storms are deriving their moisture from the Atlantic and more moisture is being brought into these storms. That certainly is a big component of it.”"

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/05/snowfall-records-climate-change-northeast/

     

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