SnowDreamer

No big changes on the graph so far in 12Z suite, it's nice to see 12k on the board. GFS remains entrenched above CMC/EURO/NAM. 

GFS/Ukie vs. CMC/EURO vs. NAM/SREF

Pick your team before the 36 hour rug pull!

Just now, ravensrule said:

Gentlemen can we please get a snow map so i can go to sleep. Much appreciated. 

11 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Wow.. Missed this a bit ago 

 

Yikes that hook is gnarly! Looks like maybe a debris ball too. 

UKIE still a BIG fan of this storm

2 minutes ago, KAOS said:

FFS... it is raining its ass off here (official observation). It seems whenever there is cold air in place we get 48-72 hours of pixie dust. Hate to sound like deb... but looking out the window is a disaster. Make it stop!!!

 

.5" QPF at 34F since 10pm... what a waste of a winter shellacking 

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Tbh despite the fact that you’re right, it barely makes a tangible difference. The fall line has to cut RIGHT across DC for it to make a real difference.

IDK, if I'm not mistaken, I believe DCA tends to report really low snow totals at or near local minimums. This is especially true in marginal events like this one. Also the fall line and R/S line aren't the same thing. 

NAM is an iceberg big enough to sink the titanic for NOVA/MD. 2-3" of sleet and then 1/4"-1/2" ZR to freeze it all together. 

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

I have.

See you guys are playing checkers and I'm playing chess.  If it busts and snows 1", I get to brag.  If it snows 6", I get to enjoy the snow.  Win-win over here.

If it busts and snows 1", you'll brag and 95% of the board will put you on ignore. If it snows 6", everyone will put you on ignore the next time you cry wolf. Doesn't seem like a win-win to me. 

Hard not to like the graph at the moment...

para showing broad 2"/hr rates in the thump 

Friend of mine in Alexandria had ice accrete on her jacket while walking the dog! 

16 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

I'm still confused ... so It doesn't like the ice storm idea but thinks today's snow is better than anticipated?

The GFS has a discombobulated nonsense system that gives nobody in NOVA/MD significant anything. It does, however, support snow this evening for parts of NOVA. Spoiler alert: it’s probably wrong about this evening based on the EURO/NAM/PARA/HRRR

15 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

how much qpf total?

4 pm Temp on Monday, 2/15

DCA: 34

DFW: 19

DEN: 9

Low temperature for Tuesday, 2/16

DCA: 26

DFW: 9

DEN: 3

12 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

So what is this?

Coating - Look at all that white! 

Here's a trace - It's actually lightly snowing in this pic

Anybody else seeing the GFS PARA on WxBell? It's greyed-out, but looks like they may be adding it soon!

Coating = can't measure it but the ground was white-ish. 

Trace = White rain = MBY for the last 16 hours 

28 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said:

lol He rarely has Richmond in play..  I feel hes pretty decent with his maps.  better than average at least

 

I find his maps extremely bullish in most instances. They bust a lot. I think he gave DC 8" last week...

Not sure if anybody has mentioned, but SREF has been trending up for DCA all day. Last 4 runs below:

Euro also moving closer to big event on the 16th. Best panel 00Z vs 12Z shows shift South and East in snow accumulations. 

GEFS is a nice improvement for most

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I find this graphic best for showing the "monster" potential. DC-south (really I-81) has the best shot right now if you believe the ens.

19% chance for me!! 

Just now, Cobalt said:

Surprised nobody posted this. Looks pretty good to me

 

That’s a bullseye! 

Overall QPF distribution very similar to 06Z through hour 77.