Hr 72… Energy north of ND looks a good tick souther on the 12Z Euro… may help it phase in?

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In the darker corner of the snow weenie brain, a fail always feels worse if others just south or east or north east got something...I think a lot of us have it, to a degree...

I have felt the dark side pull me as well… Lots of us get jealous of snow sometimes, but actively hoping for others to get screwed takes a special kind of weenie. 

8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Remember this is an IMBY sport. All us northern folks have been plenty nice and congratulatory to this point on the success to the SE, but let it be known that won’t be happening here. 
 

I too will take the CMC over everyone SE cashing in. Fortunately, as WWxLuvr, I like this storm to have the best chance of any to come NW. I personally like the trends upstairs on the GFS even though this run the jack was SE. Couple more moves in that direction please, post h84 RGEM also would make me happy. 

I agree that it’s an IMBY sport, and I don’t think anyone has a real problem with people rooting that way. I don’t love the F-your-BY attitude that sometimes happens though. If it’s not actually better for your (not DDweather, just a hypothetical your) backyard, why root against someone else’s snow? Putting aside of course that rooting doesn’t help anyway. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea of course the pattern matters. My argument was irrespective of the pattern the time since our last snow is irrelevant 

It’s the classic statistical fallacy that the coin somehow “remembers” whether it was heads or tails on the last n flips.

00Z CMC h5 much improved vs 12z… actually quite the shift. 

GFS SLP for Sunday is weaker and Souther. No bueno. 

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The middle Atlantic Rule of models: 

1) if the model shows a shit solution, it’s likely correct 

2) if the model shows a good solution, it’s incorrect 

Fixed

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, they are phasing, storm forming off the coast...BUT, looks like it'll be one of the type deals we got now..just too far east

Agree. Phase looks too late, but it’s something to track at least!

I call this piece: Three ships in the night 

medium: weenie tears on Cray supercomputer 

The problem is the label… it’s NOT a “start time” map. It just isn’t. I *think* it’s a map of where it’s snowing when. Even then it’s a disaster.

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

It’s deceptive. The center is the dot below the L. So it’s due south of OBX and based on the height lines heading NE or NNE depending on the next few frames. 

closest approach judging from the CMC website is about 50-75 miles off obx? 

It's significantly worse at sfc in hr 57... 

Out to 3 hours and I've got no fingernails left

RGEM Kuch vs. 18Z massive overhaul 

...ninja'd by CAPE

1 minute ago, frd said:

RGEM wayyyy NW

They're both a nice chunk in the right direction... abscond!

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Interesting data here that seems to support the Euro at handling 500 millibars for hours 72 and 96 slightly better ( reduced average error )  than other models.  

 

 

 

 

It’s interesting that anecdotally the GFS has been taking the EURO’s lunch money this month with these scores. 

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Snow and Ice Outlook: Haymarket

 

 

1 - 3 in

Snow

UPCOMING

START

5:00 PM

Friday, 1/28

END

7:00 AM

Saturday, 1/29

 

SNOWFALL AMOUNT PROBABILITY

Greater than 6 in2%

 

3 - 6 in35%

 

1 - 3 in46%

 

A coating to an inch13%

 

Little to no accumulation4%

 

I know it’s Accuweather but nonetheless interesting

 

 

I love it when the most likely outcome still isn’t likely. “My forecast is for 1-3”, but there’s a 54% chance I’m wrong” 

Can really see the trend to more phasing and a deeper dig here...Hoping to see the same on the GFS

SLP bombs from 1004 to 966 in 24 hours… hot damn. 

I agree that the difference is more apparent at the upper levels, but even at the surface you can see the LP is a bit stronger and holds on longer before being shot OTS vs 18Z. 

You guys are giving up on the run so soon lol. I see a pretty big shift at h5 hr 81. 

DCA probably going to break through 22F tonight… wonder if this streak is still alive? 

11 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

Quick question - at what stage do the ensemble means perform the averaging? Is it done at a low level, averaging pressures and temperatures and then generating output products? Or is it at the very end, averaging (for example) every output snowfall together? 

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure snowfall maps are made with mean at the very end. This is why you’ll sometimes see a mean of 1” snowfall when 1 member has a blizzard but the others have 45 degrees and sunny. 

29 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Getting some purple on the board. Now we're getting somewhere..

Holy crap they finally used the bottom right corner of the matrix! Day made.