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Posts posted by SnowDreamer
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Just now, notvirga! said:
Aren’t we like 24 hours away from the nams even being remotely accurate?
We are at nearly optimal range for a completely unrealistic NAM'ing tho
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Just now, LeesburgWx said:
18Z NAM even have any precip?
3 flakes and a single sleet pellet, final offer!
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Just now, nj2va said:
Looking at the Pivotal maps, both 850 and 925 stays S/E of DC on the UKIE which is a massive improvement.
Yeah, big fold. R/S line moved like 50 miles Southeast
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GFS at Hr87 HP to the north noticeably stronger than 18Z
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1 minute ago, Scraff said:
Damn. We no longer need a bandaid to stop the bleeding. Time for stitches. I still think this bounces the other way though. How many times have we lost a storm just to see it bounce back. Let’s hope so anyway. I’ll hold off on my cliff diving trip until tomorrow.
Still fully expecting a dead cat bounce tomorrow or Thursday and a NAM'ing some time on Friday.
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I for one am hoping to see the UKIE/CMC get back in the game today. They were both crap yesterday. Slightly less interested in the waffling of GFS/EURO.
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GEPS is basically a hold serve on the clown maps.
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ICON is good, especially for SE of 95. LP is Miller A-esque (don't hate me).
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6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:
I see two competing influences where this storm wants to come north, but at the same time the cold high gets even stronger while bearing down on us. Will be interesting to see how these trend until we're 60-72 hours from game time. By then, the models should be pretty locked in, give or take 15-20 miles
I know you know this, but the 20 mile wide gradient between 2" and 10" makes these storms rough even at close range.
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GEFS looks a smidge warmer than 12Z, but precip field has a really nice characteristic shape.
For some reason my media size limit is like 8 pixels...
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Absolute crushing. Still snowing at 144
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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:
not done yet!
Main difference there is 10:1 vs Kuchera, not the timing.
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Flurries in Fairfax
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1 minute ago, Shad said:
if your following trends, you may want this to stop pushing south and east....pretty substantial changes in last 3 model runs
Good general rule: If we are worried about both suppression AND over-amping, we're in a pretty good spot.
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LP tracking through the Carolinas at 144...
January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
IDK man. The best thing about the 18Z suite so far is that the UKIE held from 12Z.