SnowDreamer

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

FYI - 18z Euro should be in range in about 15 minutes.  having euro 4x day here on out should clear everything up

IDK man. The best thing about the 18Z suite so far is that the UKIE held from 12Z.

Just now, notvirga! said:

Aren’t we like 24 hours away from the nams even being remotely accurate? 

We are at nearly optimal range for a completely unrealistic NAM'ing tho

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

18Z NAM even have any precip? 

3 flakes and a single sleet pellet, final offer! 

No EURO or EPS for most recent data obv, but tonight looks like a hell of a reversal so far. 

Just now, nj2va said:

Looking at the Pivotal maps, both 850 and 925 stays S/E of DC on the UKIE which is a massive improvement.

Yeah, big fold. R/S line moved like 50 miles Southeast 

UKIE is a hit

GFS at Hr87 HP to the north noticeably stronger than 18Z

GFS also moves away from the LP transfer idea. Looks pretty different from the last several runs IMO. 

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Is there anything we can do on the ground level to make it go away? Get people to point their fans to the sky? Nuke the vort? I’m open to ideas

 

I see the 12Z EURO has pushed some of us right past denial and fear...

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Damn. We no longer need a bandaid to stop the bleeding. Time for stitches. I still think this bounces the other way though.  How many times have we lost a storm just to see it bounce back. Let’s hope so anyway. I’ll hold off on my cliff diving trip until tomorrow.   

Still fully expecting a dead cat bounce tomorrow or Thursday and a NAM'ing some time on Friday.

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

That's one sharp gradient...you could almost walk from 10" to nothing...like a lake effect event

Brutal. DCA gets a dusting and Leesburg gets a foot. 

I for one am hoping to see the UKIE/CMC get back in the game today. They were both crap yesterday. Slightly less interested in the waffling of GFS/EURO. 

GEPS is basically a hold serve on the clown maps. 

GEFS very boom or bust, I'll take P23 with a side of P28

ICON is good, especially for SE of 95. LP is Miller A-esque (don't hate me).

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I see two competing influences where this storm wants to come north, but at the same time the cold high gets even stronger while bearing down on us. Will be interesting to see how these trend until we're 60-72 hours from game time. By then, the models should be pretty locked in, give or take 15-20 miles

I know you know this, but the 20 mile wide gradient between 2" and 10" makes these storms rough even at close range. 

GEFS looks a smidge warmer than 12Z, but precip field has a really nice characteristic shape. 

For some reason my media size limit is like 8 pixels...

Absolute crushing. Still snowing at 144

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

SLP track similar to 0z eps, except surface high is stronger on 12z
 

Looks like this gif is missing 12Z?

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

not done yet!

 

Main difference there is 10:1 vs Kuchera, not the timing. 

Flurries in Fairfax

1 minute ago, Shad said:

if your following trends, you may want this to stop pushing south and east....pretty substantial changes in last 3 model runs

Good general rule: If we are worried about both suppression AND over-amping, we're in a pretty good spot. 

LP tracking through the Carolinas at 144...