SnowDreamer

P22 looks pretty sweet...

A bit better for everyone, a lot better for some says Kuchera.

Thermals are better for 18Z GFS...

12Z GEPS looks like a hold-serve vs 00Z. 

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

UKMET is the second highest scoring model. the GFS is the worst major model lmao still

I know I've seen them before, but where can I find various lead-time verification score graphs?

12Z GFS looks a whole heck of a lot like the 00Z EURO. Double SLP on either side of the mountains eventually consolidates into a coastal. Thermals are trashed for a lot of the sub and new england is crushed with snow. 

The SLP jumps to the mouth of the Chesapeake at 174 before riding up the coast and crushing interior New England.

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

The top row is all fails. Any insight?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

There are several ways to fail LOL. 2 are too warm, 3 miss south, and P11 is pretty good but lacks the QPF of the bigger hits. 

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

This is going to be this seasons shit the blinds 

This is either the season of udder disappointment OR the season of geese omniscience... time will tell.

Just now, nj2va said:

Cue the Debs “you don’t want to see this 6 days out“

Just need to hold this look for 28 more runs! 

Weatherbell is a little pricey, so as a general rule, I don't start my typical monthly subscription until there's a decent shot at a solid storm. I just restarted my subscription for the first time since March '22. We're back!!!

Someone who knows more than me... What the heck is the GFS doing here? It looks like the ULL gets split into two pieces and then the piece from the midwest nearly stalls the piece trying to ride up the coast as they get close to phasing back together?

I was bored and thinking about how it's been a warm December IMBY. Linear regressions imply an increase of about .1F per year. The coefficient for both lines is significant at greater than 95% confidence level. 

56 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Yesterday's WB GEFS extended control....

DCA gets the least snow within a 500 mile radius. Seems about right! These models really have gotten more accurate. 

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

40/38. Down 7 degrees in 2 hours. Pretty easy to see where the rain snow line is on this correlation coefficient capture:

CC line has spread out and advanced pretty rapidly in the last hour

NAMs are much better than 12Z, especially for the western crew out in Loudoun/Shenandoah Valley. 

3k NAM spreads the wealth well East of 95 on this run

12k NAM is a solid improvement. Verbatim jackpot along 81 vice West Virginia. 

HRRRRRRRRR’d

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

SREFS are wetter and …. wait for it  ….  farther …… wait …… NW!!

Love the dramatic reading here. This is what I came to see!!

I’m waiting for an EPIC NAM’ing at 00Z, then I’m going to feed my Ethernet chord to the dog before anything else comes out and wait for it to come true. 

Still misses to the SE…

H5 looks a lot more like GFS @ hr 102 than 00Z did.