SnowDreamer

Heavy line just hit me east of IAD. Absolutely POURING rain... weather station says .28” in the last 10 minutes. 

4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Anyone know how to create this on tidbits?  Pulled this image from tweeter...

 

18 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Right where we want it at this range. 

I’m one away from bingo! 

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

 I cant see us getting shutout going into our prime climo with that much blocking. Maybe just some small overrun events. But no way we are shut out with that pattern. 

Knock on wood!!! 

CMC, GFS, EURO all push that first low after Christmas farther south at 12Z compared to last night. 

Is this where someone says "Right where we want it for right now"...? Is that on the weenie bingo sheet?

Trying to learn to read more than clown maps and skew-t charts here... can someone explain to me why this doesn’t pan out? 00z euro has a big block in the North Atlantic, closed ULL, and surface low tracking to our south. There’s tons of HP around that I feel like should force cold air down into the storm, and something kinda 50/50 ish(maybe a bit too far out to sea)? Looks not bad to me but verbatim we rain/zr. 
 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not bad for late next week.

Anybody want to chase to that tiny 2” jackpot on Delmarva?

I’m no expert, but we like the trend in tilt on the GFS for Christmas Eve, no? 

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

can't even get any hot pink cloud love

It's over for us. Rooting for the NW crew now. 

Just switched over to mostly sleet S of Springfield. 

10 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Isn't that 3:15?

Nope, GMT-5 right now. 1915 Z -> 1415 EST -> 2:15 PM

Daylight savings makes it confusing sometimes.

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

What is projected location of precip mass development? Nothing out there right now

Should start to form tonight in northern MS, then move pretty much straight Northeast and strengthen in TN before it comes our way. 

Anybody else love the serenity of the ~20 minutes or so as a model run is coming out and nobody says anything? Everybody who's around is too busy looking at the outputs and all is calm on here. 

BWI: 20"
DCA: 14"
IAD: 20"
RIC: 10"

Tiebreaker SBY: 10"

FWIW EURO Kuchera map looks much better for central VA. 

00Z 

12Z

BWI: 5.1"

DCA: 3.0"

IAD: 4.2"

RIC: 1.1"

Tiebreaker: 1.21"

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m all in on the euro

18Z? Haven't seen it.

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Step away from the ledge. Fv3 agrees with the euro but colder on the 10-11th

Where can I find this output for FV3? It looks like NCEP MAG, but I don't see FV3 listed there. Thanks!

1 hour ago, T. August said:

Anybody wanna chime in on ratios?? What are we talkin’ here.

Pivotal Weather has Kuchera ratios on some models. 3k NAM has DC at 19:1 at 7AM. 

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Per LWX as of noon:

IAD 7.1"

BWI 4.6"

 

No word from DCA

Where can I find this info? I only see IAD 5.9" at 7:00 AM.

1" just east of IAD, light but constant snow. 

SREF bumps precipitation again at 21Z... DCA Mean up to .81" QPF. Zero members below .25"

Just now, GATECH said:

That’s not good, that’s less than an inch of snow.  Unless that is total qpf?

That's liquid QPF falling as snow... 20mm= ~8 inches of snow 

Haven't seen this mentioned, but a really good look at the positive trend here in the SREF.