SnowDreamer

I don't hate the GFS 28th trend for the last several runs...It's come a LONG way

CMC looks south-er so far at 96. ULL centered about 300 miles SW of 12Z... closer to 00Z last night. 

Good snow 132, 135! 

12 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Scheisse!

A true classic, the North trend only when it screws us. 

6 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 6 runs (College Park) through Feb 2

 

Just for fun... I assume based on your post time that these init times are correct. 

12Z vs 00Z EPS best 48-hour snow mean... significantly less snow for PA + North; a little less for MD, VA, WV. 

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think they do it randomly?

This should probably move to banter, but I feel obligated to respond as I'm studying data science. 

The most often-cited resource on this is:  Walsh, John E.; David Allen (October 1981). "Testing the Farmer's Almanac". Weatherwise.

The findings of the above study (University of Illinois) were that monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts were 52% and 51% accurate over a 5-year study period, respectively. Given an anticipated random accuracy of 50%, this suggests that their method (if any) does not significantly increase the forecast accuracy above simple guessing. 

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Here's the Eps mean . I think that's the control^

 

It is. To anybody who doesn’t know (me a few weeks ago), there’s a helpful little identifier after the ECMWF Ens tag. 
 

[M]=Mean

[C]=Control

I'm plenty happy with that for now. At least it finally brings some colder air down so those HP give us a legit chance. 

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

It used to be part of the Gefs ensemble package 

Yeah it used to be on the member panels along with all the members, but now it doesn't seem to be anywhere.

38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control with a 999 low off OC early Sat morning . -850s... check ...surface... a couple degrees colder we in bidness .

 

Does anybody know if WxBell allows access to the GEFS control like the EPS? I can't find it...

promising signs out of 12Z ensembles for the 18-20 threat window. GEFS control has a solid storm on the 19th and EPS shows some support (centered on the 20th). 

18 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

An ignorant question I know, but when actually are the approximate times that the 00Z/12Z ensembles tend to become available?

Depends a lot on the forecast range you're waiting for, but WxBell lists the following: 

GEFS: 10:30-1:20

EPS: 1:45-2:50

Since we tend to favor ensembles in the LR, my personal rule of thumb is to wait an hour until after the OP starts. 

Just now, stormtracker said:

Where yall getting the Para?

Pivotal

9 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Has the CMC started the 12z run???

Only just

GFS looks much closer on the 9th & 12th. Looking forward to the ensembles 

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not super cold, but its in the right place, and at the right time of the winter.

Nice little coastal precip signature too! 

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS has a signal for coastal storms again around the 11/12th and then again around the 14th.

I'm loving those SLP means from the 8th-14th. Looks like lots of action! 

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

On pivotal which is the gfs para?

V16

00Z GEFS p10 has a pretty amazing Southeast Snowstorm... even Baton Rouge gets a foot! 

Those two energies do phase off the coast on the 5th... if they phase sooner, we get closer?

GFS moves closer. Gets frozen into VA/NC. 

I have nightmares about WARs like that... Not again.

The HH GFS shoots the would-be post-NYE coastal out to sea. Then nothing until epic cold front part III on day 13. Sigh

GFS looks like it’s trying hard to build a coastal after NYE but it’s too late. Still a really different look.