SnowDreamer

Kuchera 12Z vs 6Z shows a big jump south for the 1", 2" lines! Slightly less  than 10:1, as expected. 

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I can’t see Weather Will’s pics for some reason

You have a 9% chance of 12”+

On a separate note, does anybody have any guesses why the CWG map is oriented like this? Most models I have seen show a gradient nothing like this angle. 

5 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

Hopefully things change for the  better.  However,  right now, the return on investment of this 2300 plus response thread reminds me of my Blockbuster Video stock. 

Maybe we can set up a VIX for regional snow sentiment. I’d love to see that. We’ve certainly had an up day in the last 24 hours. 

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Even less with the Kuchera.  Sadly, with the current trends, I fear that by Thursday most of us would take this map.

I would give up a limb of the reaper’s choice for that map right now. 

6 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

How does the GFS compare to the PARA GFS?   PARA GFS superior?  thoughts?

Para GFS has marginally higher scores @500mb. Like .01 better. 
 

eta: 

I really thought one of the two would fold tonight... Guess not.

I've officially hit weenie stock-market-bubble-like elation. I'm now torn between being thrilled by the 00Z runs and being terrified of the EURO later. 

Para GFS takes a step south from 18Z. Parts of WV/MD fringed.

6"+ for VA and DC though. 

Just now, nj2va said:

Get your decoders out for the GGEM!  978 well offshore VA beach.  I’d think its a hit though.

 

Do you have a link to this source? Also anyone have a link to the 500mb verification charts from NCEP?

Just now, Amped said:

The  deepening rates models have been consistently showing with this storm are insane. 

994-976mb in 6 hrs.

1005 to 967mb in 18hrs.

Handily crushes the bombogenesis standard! Too bad there's no explosion emoji. 

Nice bump on QPF vs. 00Z. Still not in the same ballpark as GFS, though. 

EURO 12Z:

EURO 00Z: 

GFS 12Z:

45 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

GFS gives us 50x more snow than the euro.  I like the optimism, but toss the GFS.

I agree GFS run is too good to be true. I just like seeing some (small) progress in the Euro. 

North tick, slightly more QPF up close to DC. I’ll take the progress. Still a long way to go. 

Verbatim, GFS makes it up to hurricane force sustained winds as it pulls away. 70 knot surface winds @ hr 144. 

Just give me this one storm. That’s all I want. One good score and I’ll go back into hibernation for summer. 

14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

The euro and ukie are all by themselves. I don't buy their solutions. Maybe if those models were more reliable but they have lost some of their reliability.

I don't understand this sentiment of lost reliability. Euro still crushes all in anomaly correlation extremely consistently. 

5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Probability maps lol... why the cutoff from west to east?

A couple members don’t quite have the thermals at lower elevations. 

Just now, nj2va said:

Typical response when in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, too bad we know it won't hold for 7 days.

Typical response when not in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, you know that's exactly how it'll play out.

The blatant pessimism helps me not be so surprised when we get fringed, blowtorched, and suppressed all at the same time. 

That one hurt.  I may need to take a break for the 00Z runs tonight. I don't know if I can handle the next 7 days straight of this pain.

GEFS has a more consolidated wave for Feb. 1 than the EPS, but pretty sparse on snowy members...

GEFS:

EPS: 

850s look really solid throughout. This is close to a very big hit, already not bad at all.

19 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 8 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3

Good to see that spread narrow a bit

Pretty  tonight from the GooFuS... no less than 3 storms in the next 2 weeks.

GFS trying to make something happen on Feb. 1 as well, 991mb in the Chesapeake at hour 276.