SnowDreamer

CMC looks like a really big hit on WxBell with the kuchera! Snows for ~48 hours. pretty euro-esque... close to HECS territory 

Where is @North Balti Zen with the 00Z scorecard? 

@psuhoffman can I snag a link to those cmc images? 

Just now, osfan24 said:

Maybe it's just been so long since we tracked a potential MECS/HECS, but I just remember 2016 seeming so locked in from basically a week out and just insane snowfall totals and qpf amounts really far out. You would just think such a long duration coastal, as this is depicted, would be showing at least equally obscene totals, if not more.

I think 2016 was perhaps more anomalous in its modeling consensus than even its snowfall. It was unusual to say the least. I don't think we get that often, even in MECS/HECS

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

18Z EPS Probs 3, 6, 12

 

That's not the end of the run. You're slacking man! 

The 10:1 map is pretty and all, but this right here is a tear-jerker...

Sorry it's low quality, I had to shrink it a bit since it snows for 48 hours

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s gonna be an incredibly long 4 days around here.

I'm going to sleep a lot better if this holds just one more day. The last 48 hours should be EASY compared to the 48 we're in now. 

5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

 

Umm, so which is it? 72-80 hours out seems right?

I guess it depends on whose flakes you're talking about, but my math and DC's flakes looks like this:

12Z Euro onset was around hour 100 for DC

00Z Euro should be around 90

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

At 00z tonight, are we only 72 hours out from the first flakes?

That's tomorrow. 

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

on the 12z GFS or EURO?  And I am guessing that member is going to have a BECS end solution lol

It's some frontal passage on the 12Z GEFS Valid Feb 7 LOL. No member has anything close to that this weekend. 

9 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Do you have the 18z Monday map.  Was curious at how the clusters tracked.....Looks near ideal.....

this work?

This is a 6 hour plot...

30 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I count 32 EPS members that give DC 6"+ of snow.  And 50/50 gets at least 2" into DC.  Sweet.

GEFS also has 27/30 with 2"+. Most in the last 7 runs, maybe all season for all I know. 

@imnotarobotI know that your post won't make you popular here, but FWIW I don't think you just delete your account and quit. It's great that you get emotional and like seeing other people being so invested in our snowstorms. It's really what makes this hobby so fun; the investment. Also, it's nice to see another full-time teacher on the boards!

As a LONG time lurker and relatively recently active poster, I enjoy AmWx way more now that I participate, even if only a little. It adds to the aforementioned investment. If you're really into weather like I'm sure you are, consider lurking a little less. 

As for the point you were making and the things that upset you, everybody on this forum is occasionally pissed off by something. Some more than others . Best advice I have seen from the (much) more experienced members is to ignore/block what you don't want to see so that you can enjoy the reason you're here. 

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Dumb question...does weatherbell have the individual eps members 6hr precip like it has for the GEFS? 

As others have said, it does. But I haven't been able to find p-type members like the GEFS sadly. I know they used to be a thing.

At what point do you all start to worry about your plans? I'm supposed to get the poke to end the panic (COVID) on Sunday afternoon. That's an appointment I REALLY don't want to miss. Euro and EPS look fine until at least 18Z Sunday, but GFS starts significantly earlier. I don't want to be white-knuckling it at 1pm Sunday if it's really hammering. Hoping I can scoot in just before the snow really hits. 

Just now, nj2va said:

It doesn’t seem like suppression is even on the table given we’re now under 100 hours out.  

There's a special place in my nightmares for tempting the reaper like that

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

switching topics... anyone been gambling in the stock market recently? caved and got $150 worth of BlackBerry a few days ago and I'm not unhappy with how its going. Not frisky enough to move my serious index fund money in Gamestop/Blackberry/AMC but I've been enjoying mostly spectating.

I've stayed away and I'm rather proud of myself for that. Vast majority is in mutuals and sector ETFs. I do have some individual biotech stocks that are very boom-bust, though. 

Anybody have Ukie graphics? Didn't see much about it earlier...

2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Guys.. soundings.

Wish WxBell had them!

WxBell thermals showing D.C. stays under 0C right down to 925mb except for a little blip at hour 129. Risk it for the biscuit, folks! 

850s knocking on DC doorstep @ 126. Really solid hit

D.C. loses 850s at 120, remarkably consistent with 18Z this run for the GFS so far. 

Just now, yoda said:

HP is 1mb stronger at 72 lol

abscond!

12 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

I think we all know, if this storm has an historic potential, now is the time for it to be modeled that way across the board. 2016 was at least 6+days out with unusual model agreement.

BUT if not even historic, 4-8 even 6-10 inches is a win In my book.

I saw your profile picture and thought that @Ji was willing to settle. Should have known better!