SnowDreamer

RGEM is pretty similar overall, narrows the jackpot zone on this map

ICON is an improvement for all

ICON still running but definitely going to have a NW tick to totals. A bit more than the NAMs it looks like through hr19

62/58 here in ffx and making a drink before the ICON starts...

8” as the “low end confident number” in South DC and DCA? That’s ballsy! 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Looks like the Nam so far...

Yeah, it does a bit, but here's the 00Z for comparison on the big progress. 

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Haven’t looked myself that it allegedly inched north relative to its 0z but it ain’t no GFS

A LOT better than 00Z but not there yet. 

12 minutes ago, H2O said:

LWX should change the watches to flood ones

FWIW, 12ZGFS and 06ZEURO get DC up to ~65F today before the crash. So at least there's that.

8 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Just got a WAA for Fairfax for 2-4”. It seems to be too conservative based on the latest information.  Is that because they depend on the NAM?

It's conservative, but not an unfair play if you're willing to upgrade to warnings in 4 hours. 

CMC takes another solid step NW, looks pretty close to GFS now with lower totals.

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

My first snowfall map I’ve ever attempted. Don’t be too harsh…

 

The most accurate map posted yet!

I love the RGEM as a weenie, but I think (based pretty much only on anecdotal evidence) it’s usually more bullish than warranted. Thoughts?

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks reasonable to me considering the antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the pattern. You really buy those pretty WB clown maps?

I agree, I’m not as optimistic about the 7-10” region but the rest looks exactly like mine. Hoping to lock in that look at 18Z

7 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

HRRR pretty good I'd say

 

Suggests NW trend is probably not over. A good bit juicier as well!

Kuchera vs. 18Z 

Precip shield takes another solid jog NW. I'll happily take the progress. 

Those of you with a spiritual side, now would be the time.

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 18z Euro will shift the precip a bit further SE, with snow tv for my yard and an inch or 2 for the DE/MD beaches. Just a guess, or call it intuition. 

18z euro will shift NW enough to get .5” into DC, and keep us all on the hook before it and all others fold to NAM by 06z tomorrow. (Reverse logic!)

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS comes thru for happy hour.  Not 0z good but better than last 2 runs. 

A bit North-er and stronger low than 12Z

Also lethally slippery down here near Springfield. I had a tiny coating of sleet post-shovel which has turned into solid ice on my sidewalk. 

15 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Totally unrelated to the current drama but I did a marathon yesterday.  As some of you know I lost my wife last summer and now I’m a single parent of two small kids.  Running has been the thing that keeps me sane.  There were no real races to do so I just did my own marathon at east Potomac park. I did it totally unsupported and used my car as the aid station. I’ve never done a race before but this was really fun!  I want to do a real one now!

That’s amazing! Running can be so therapeutic.
 

I’m sorry for your loss. I used to run every evening when I was struggling with my own happiness, and I still make a point of putting in laps on hard days. Exercise is just great for the brain, but I also think it feels good to know you got something concrete done. 

@The Ole BucketI just want you to know that you have my favorite username on the board by far.

29 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I disagree. First of all, very pedantic scrutiny of the word area. By area, I meant our area. Not sure how you derived otherwise, or how that's relevant.

Secondly, the 0z NAM last night was by far the most accurate solution. The pros specifically singled it out. If you took the snow maps verbatim that's on you. But the mix line and soundings were damn near right. 

I love that you clarified your diction by not contributing any new information whatsoever. Very helpful. In case it helps you, when I said area, I meant our geographic area of VA, MD, WV. If that's not what you meant, then I can't help you. If, on the other hand, you meant the geographic area like I did, then I'd hope you'd agree that a model's performance in our area is vastly more relevant than other areas where you might be able to point to relative success. 

I will direct you to the disco this morning which pointed out that although the NAM was close with the warm nose, it too underestimated it. Also, I'd like to point out that the NAMs busted in large part due to QPF overestimation, not because of the mix line. You can see that in the 00Z run which you previously called cherry-picked before you specifically lauded it. 

Just now, SnowtoRain said:

Moderate sleet with brightening skies, are sleet rainbows a thing?

Look up "sun dog"

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

So you're cherry picking data points, congrats. 

The pros at NWS specifically mentioned the NAM's temperature profiles. And many received this QPF, just not our area.

Try again. 

Uhm... This is a geographically-based sub-forum. What matters to us is how well a model performs in our area. I'm not especially interested in whether or not the NAM nailed QPF in NYC. I'm not saying the NAM is bad. It's been REALLY good this year, but 3k and 12k both busted.