TJW014

I like where this is at so far. Not far off from giving a significant snowfall for much of the region, though I'm excited being at the coast. Still plenty of time for shifts. I wouldn't focus completely on low placement until tomorrow/Thursday. I'm feeling January 2018 (especially with the cold week prior) and January 2022 vibes.

I think the biggest uncertainty we're going to have with this system is the energy coming from northern Canada. That has a lot to interact with over the next few days as it does a 360 degree loop over James Bay.

The signal is there, and there’s lots of model agreement on a potential Miller A. That's all I really care about until we get to Wednesday. Then we can start ironing out the smaller details (placement, strength, etc)

Times like these are when owning a 4WD vehicle is worth the 13 mpg I get year round. My winch and tow strap were busy yanking plowed in cars throughout the neighborhood. Also had to winch my brother's car out of the driveway at 4:30 this morning so he could make it to the police academy. Currently out on the gas golf cart "plowing" (I strapped a shovel to the front) the sidewalks open.

7 days out and looks almost perfect. That means this will either be a cutter to the Great Lakes, or snow doesn't make it north of Richmond

I feel like some of these snowfall reports, especially public ones may be too high and too low. A lot of drifting took place. I have spots in my yard with drifts knee deep, and spots with bare ground.

Got more from December 14. 8" vs 6.5". That was all snow, easy to clear the roads, cars, driveways. Not a fan of these snow to mix events.

Right along the bayfont. Not as powdery this way.

Transitioning to freezing rain. 6" OTG.

5.5". Sleet beginning to mix in.

3.5" as of 9:45. Temp up to 30.

Incredible not even half that on the other side of town.

1". So far not impressed with rates here. Temp up to 24.

Last call. Zero changes to the map from yesterday afternoon. Let's see how it goes...

Updated map. Will this pan out? No clue, but that's why I'm not a met. Some minor tweaks from the last one, and unless we see major trends within the next 24 hours, I don't think I'll make any adjustments. I guess you could call it a near worse-case scenario but I'm sticking to a lower/conservative side. I think the mixing line makes it up to CT, then following just north/west of the Fall Line. ENE winds will bring a period of rain to coastal NJ, keeping totals lower. Freezing rain up to 0.25" possible for inland NJ, south of Raritan Bay. However, if the mixing line quickly retreats, or doesn't even make it that far north/east, totals here will be higher, possibly add 50% to what's projected on the map (not in pink). Areas north/west of Easton, PA - Mahwah, NJ should remain all snow, 12-18" likely, possibly higher amounts in higher elevations.

WSW issued. Mt Holly still going with 10-15" here.

GFS yet again remains best case scenario.

Closing in on 48 hours until go time for some of us. Here's my initial dartboard throw. Never underestimate the jacuzzi that is the Atlantic, even if the buoys are only reading 40. 12 hours of ENE wind, it's going to bring some rain to the coast. Feel free to throw some Oscar Meyers.

Looks like GFS is still going to be our best bet for big totals. Building an initial snow map.

True. Could be a reason why many are throwing out maps so early in the game.

Yup. This was the project a group of us were given for the spring semester. I primarily would like to be focusing on barrier island ecology in the future.

Less salt, the better. Been running around doing water parameter checks in a bunch of tributaries in Ocean County for a term project. The conductivity and refractometer readings we've been seeing after salt gets laid down is disturbingly high.

I doubt down here even reaches warning criteria

Never underestimate the warm nose. It'll rear its ugly head.

GFS would be perfect here for all of us. Otherwise just let it rain. Don't care if I get 6" from a front thump. If it ends as 3" of slush, what's the fun in that?