TJW014

I think all this flip flopping we're seeing with the models is them trying to simulate where the heaviest banding sets up, rather than how far the warm nose edges in. Given all the trends today so far, there's little change in temps aloft. For nearly all of us that we stay below freezing up to 700mb until the wee hours of the storm when precip is winding down. All these jumps north/south are figuring out the heaviest bands. Lift vs subsidence. Someone's gonna be sitting under a weenie band, and someone 10 miles north or south is going to be screwed.

WS Watch to a WWA here. 1-3 snow/sleet + glaze of ice. Kinda expected. Hard to fight both WAA and the east wind.

Wind not too bad with the squall line. Winds offshore. Waves cleaning up 6-8’. Going surfing.

And run it off right into our wetlands, creeks, rivers and back bays that can’t tolerate salt.

KDIX radar showing 100 mph velocities 2000 feet up. Noticeable uptick in wind over the last half hour.

A hair over 8" as of 11:30 AM here. Starting to wind down. Wind picking up.

6" here as of 9 am

3.5" SE Toms River along the river.

Moderate/Heavy band setting up over me. Sticking to all surfaces.

Imagine if this thing had some blocking. Easy 12"+ storm for all of us.

Flurries+ here along Barnegat Bay.

Sleds are out, and the go kart and ATV are prepped for some fun overnight

BS. It's a max of 41 per the Weatherflow stations along the Barnegat and LBI barrier islands. Car thermometers are terrible. They'll be reading 105 when it's in the low 99s

According to this sub, it has sucked since the moment I joined this AmWx

Beautiful sunrise. Red sky in the morning, a sailor's warning. Definitely has that "it's gonna snow" feeling in the air

Freehold, NJ will be the jackpot spot.

Why are we posting mesoscale models when they're useless more than 48 hours out?

"finally" Anybody who posts a snowfall map over 3 days in advance is dumb.

Perfect wintry event to really drive in the Christmas season. We'll be getting our tree Sunday morning. 1-3" makes everything look great, easy to keep the roads clear, and minimal shoveling.

Moderate rain. Very few wet flakes/white rain mixing in.

Any snowfall is "plowable" if it means overtime pay.

Mount Pocono hit a record low of -4 this morning. Starting the day off at 25. Light snow to the south, might see some flakes work their way up here.

Sitting above freezing here with the slightest onshore breeze. Just inland is in the low 20s and still dropping. Wouldn't be surprised if inland South Jersey starts off as wintry precip tomorrow

Couldn't be better timing. Just finished undercoating all the vehicles over the weekend.

Some sleet mixed in with the showers passing through