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TJW014
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Everything posted by TJW014
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49 years ago, February 1977. Somebody in my family (I believe my grandfather) was drunk enough and decided to drive the station wagon from Island Heights to Sedge Island to check on the old summer shack (not in this picture) Ice was measured at 26" thick at the time. As of Saturday, I measured ice 8.5" thick just off Ocean Gate Yacht Club. Could be pushing 12" by this weekend.
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Change "February" to Thanksgiving, then to Christmas, then to January. Cold's going nowhere. February may very well be below average too.
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I'll take this sunny/frigid weather any day over 35 and overcast. If you can stay out of the wind, the sun feels great. Feels like a true winter.
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Radiational cooling did its job last night. Starting the day at -7 this morning. Off to get the DN and Skeeter ice boats ready for this afternoon
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The NWS website could use a user friendliness improvement. I mean, it's plenty user-friendly us on here, but for the smooth-brained folks who believe everything they see on Facebook or the news outlets, ease of access isn't great. They really should develop their own app. Not just a mobile link to their mobile-friendly site, a real app. All we have now are 3rd party apps using NWS data. That needs to change
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Fairly confident in at least a 2-4" event down here. Makes up for the 6-8" we lost from last weekend due to sleet/ice.
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Need to consolidate these lows.
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Favoring the northern and western lows
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Trof looking better on the GFS too
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RGEM with stronger ridging over the West Coast. Trof has a bit more negative tilt to it also.
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Recon are sampling the upper-level shortwave off PNW that will kick off our storm. IDK if dropsonde data is being ingested by this model run, but definitely 06z.
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Trof has more positive tilt than 18z
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NAM pops a low 300 miles east of the Bahamas lol
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Jersey Shore Special.
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Goes to show that the models have no handle on this system yet.
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GFS doing GFS things... H5 got squashed
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EPS would still be a 6-8" snowfall for LI and NJ coast
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Maybe we don't see a NW trend. But something else to note is that the precipitation shield can often be modeled too far south. Look at Jan 2016. IIRC that low passed SE of the benchmark, yet still flung significant precip well inland. Two different storms, but if this winds up being a sub-970 low, there's going to be a large precip shield.
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Look at all those west members.
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That's still almost a foot for coastal NJ and LI. Ratios will be high.
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These things always tick NW last second. The NW trend has been the theme this winter too. I really don't think we're going to get a good idea until we get within reliable mesoscale range (<60h)
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GGEM with a 951mb nuke
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NJ beaches would be taking a major beating if GFS verified
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Correct.
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