cptcatz

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 There are a couple. However, even those couple are well over 100 miles E of the 12Z UKMET position at hour 144. So, UK remains a pretty extreme left outlier as of now.

Looks like there a couple that do loops ala Jeanne or Betsy.

00z Euro and CMC both with a hurricane in the central MDR at day 10.  Maybe this will be the one?  

It's not looking terrible on satellite and 18z Euro/EPS did track a bit more southward...

50 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB comes to the rescue. No commentary  from me except  i hope  he  is right and we still can salvage some  kind  of season.

 

 

Yeah we're still over a month away from the Wilma-Matthew-Michael-Sandy tracks.  No reason to think we can't get one or more of those tracked storms.

38 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

Getting out to sea vibes, but I've also seen invest models like this wind up in Veracruz.

Hurricane Grace just last year. Big miss by the early models. 

Very interesting last frame of the Euro model... intensifies from 986 to 973 while moving southwest. 

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Lots of hooks right in that suite

Most models were also showing Irma hooking right while it was in the middle of the Atlantic as well...

It looks like on visible that's it's trying to tighten up a low level spin...

21 minutes ago, yoda said:

Um, I would take the GFS before the ICON in the tropics

Sure, when it's head to head. But now 12z CMC also is showing the same thing, so the competition is Euro/CMC/Icon vs GFS. Who ya got now?

Impressive band of convection forming in the northeast side which is where the wave is merging. I could see this outperforming the models. 

40 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The GFS has a bad habit of over-developing in the SW Caribbean, but I think the Euro system is the real deal.  Look at the other models.  Look at the TPW, the now strung out system is moistening the atmosphere.  Do you really think the lead disturbance in the MDR looks like it is dying of thirst?

Yeah, I mean GFS is all alone with the Caribbean system but every single model has been showing the lead Atlantic system developing for a couple days now. I'd be really surprised if NHC doesn't bump it up to at least 50-60% at 8pm.

Euro going all in

36 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Me as well

It is hard to tell especially on the EPS which only goes out to 240hr but it looks like the projected trajectory of the vast majority of the members is suggesting recurve.

The EPS model on Tropical Tidbits go out further than 240hr and show South Florida is in play bigtime...

I'm watching this closely from Boca Raton...

Can anyone explain what this system is at 10N,35W?  It's the most impressive area of convection I've seen all season, so why don't models have it developing?

Yeah this is definitely the most interesting euro run in a while. I still don't trust anything beyond 5 days any more than I can throw them. 

I'm no meteorologist, I'm just a guy with logic, but I think a big problem with the seasonal forecasts is it seems that they pretty much only take two things into account: water temp of the Pacific, and water temp of the Atlantic, and spit out numbers based solely on that.  And yet what we're seeing is there are so many other environmental factors besides it being La Nina with a warm Atlantic.  

But I'm ready to throw my towel to ldub.  I'm getting tired of watching the models keep dropping the storms at the 5 day mark.  What a borefest.

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? Gfs still showing the tropics getting really active 

At the 5 day mark, there is zilch happening in the tropics...

The 0z EPS is pretty bullish with three waves in the next 10 days: it starts to develop the current 20% lemon just north of the Caribbean and ends the run with it on a crash course into Florida.  The next wave seems a bit messy in the central Atlantic but the third wave looks to be a vigorous one.  Looks like the main story of the models is they have no idea how to handle this monsoon trough.

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Everytime  i get  mocked the tropical Gods respond, lol. Im declaring  victory. The season isnt going to be  hyper active  or  even "active". Normal at  best at this  point. As far as the rest  of the season lets hope  we  can get  6 canes and  2 majors.

 

*Hopefully 06Z will be back to showing a few clumps of clouds at least. Even in dead seasons we used to get waves with showers. Yesterday i was skeptical because right after the  twin super canes the  models went  back to nothing and  bone dry air after the  2 canes.

 

*As far as the ensembles go the euro also shows  nothing and its  now very realistic we go 0/0/0 thru Aug.

 

*****2 important records within reach now. Tying the least active Aug and  longest  period  between named storms.

And then every time you declare victory, the GFS comes back to mock you once again, this time with the 06z bringing a major through the Lesser Antilles, direct hit onto Puerto Rico, then bringing the monster into the Gulf...

Lol at the dueling majors. Quiet season who?

Amazing agreement between GFS and Euro on today's 12z runs. 

57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I got that—and I’m not saying season cancel, or that we won’t get some CVs—it’ll still be active IMO.

But the MDR is still quite hostile as evidenced by the continued presence of stability/dry air that has caused every robust wave the last six weeks or so to fail to develop. None of the ones in the coming week have particularly high odds to develop in the tropical Atlantic due to the ongoing conditions, either. 

Recent years have focused most activity on the western Atlantic and if we don’t see greater strides in the next two weeks I think it’ll likely be the case this year as well. 

As noted in ldub's posts from late August 2017, the MDR was quite hostile then too until Irma flipped the switch.  It's only hostile until it's not, and models are in agreement that that will flip possibly next week. 

I'm not saying this storm Euro develops is going to be another Irma, but I'm getting serious vibes from ldub's posts regarding 2017's 93L only two days before it was named Irma:

10 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

As expected  in a dead season it appears to have  been dropped  by the GFS and Euro due to the  continued hideous  conditions. Not  a surprise. Euro has another  low  later  but will be dropped  within a day. GFS has some slop here and there but  basically  nothing. Dead  City.

 

As far as the  BOC, just whats expected  in a dead season.

Euro never had the leading wave doing anything, it has the second wave coming off around 8/24 and the latest euro run 0z is the most bullish with it ending with it at 997 mb. Not sure what you mean by euro dropping it.