cptcatz

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Y'all keep trying to deflect or move the goalposts.

Let me ask a question.  If you are in your home (whatever type of home it may be... well built, not well built, mobile home, whatever), are you in more danger if you're watching a snowstorm or a hurricane out of your window?

Honestly I would say it's equal with basically the same risks for both: tree falling on the house or power going out causing either extreme cold in a snowstorm or extreme heat in a hurricane. There really aren't any other risks if you ride out the storm in a house. 

19 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

As opposed to tornados, especially  severe  tornados. that  many people  want to form to watch them or chase them. Blizzards? Rain? Rain has ruined  many lives. Ever  hear  of  floods? Sunny weather? You want people to get skin cancer?

Don't forget that sunny weather is also commonly associated with heat waves.  Heat kills more people than any other weather phemonena.  This summer's European heat wave has killed over 23,000 people.

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How many deaths from caved in roofs bc of snow have we had lately?

How many deaths from wind or surge while people are inside their homes have we had lately?  I'd go out on a limb and say zero or at the very least very close to zero.  Hurricane deaths are basically all from electrocutions from downed power lines, people getting swept away by stupidly driving into flood waters, surfers drowning, or people again stupidly being outside and having tree limbs fall on them.

58 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That's adding another element though -- being out on the roads.  If you're at home, you have like zero chance of dying from snow.  Meanwhile if you're at home during a hurricane, you could still die from the associated surge or even the wind damage.

And if you're home during a blizzard and the power goes out you can literally freeze to death. I'd say that's more likely than dying from the wind or surge in a first world properly constructed house. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah ok.  When's the last time a snowflake destroyed somebody's house?

One snowflake? Never. But one raindrop never caused flooding either. A lot of snow can cause significant property damage though. 

Pretty amazing how boring the 336 hour GEFS happy hour run of September 8 is.  The only little interesting thing I see are the handful of members rising up from the western Caribbean heading towards Cuba/Florida.  Could be a sign of what's to come?

And the 12z Euro just went completely poof on the current lemon.  It's still developing the wave behind that one but I'm sure it'll go poof on that one too in a few days.

16 minutes ago, Normandy said:

If the hurricanes don't hit they do NOT EXIST!

As I mentioned in the other thread, are hurricanes that don't hit any different than the great red spot on Jupiter?  I would say not really...

What a borefest so far

15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

lol it should be more like "Cat 5 mid atlantic hurricane" on the right and "60mph tropical storm landfalling on the east coast" on the left.

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Would you rather have 5 middling tropical storms with two threatening the US or two hurricanes that churn OTS? You get to the same place objectively but it’s different subjectively. 

I'll speak for myself here but I would much rather see the two middling tropical storms threatening the US.  I mean, hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic are only useful as pretty colors on a satellite image.  I mean, have you guys seen that impressive storm on Jupiter?  According to wikipedia it's been active for at least 357 years and produces winds up to 268 mph.  What an impressive ACE score that produces!

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Are you looking at the models?

I am, and they're showing basically nothing going out to late September. GFS has zero cyclogenesis through 384 hours, and all Euro has is fantasy storms way out east which it continues to gradually drop as time moves up which it's been doing all year. Euro's fantasy eastern-MDR storms are worse than GFS's Caribbean fantasy storms. Outside of the Caribbean the GFS has been pretty spot on this year and it's showing a dead rest of September. 

Gotta say the number of recon flights is impressive. I guess they're making up for all the missed flights in August? 96 knot flight level wind just recorded.

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

About as dead as  it  can get. Dani had to get to greenland to form, early  is still on the struggle  bus until it  can get away from the  tropics, the  one  behind  it  looks  like a dried  up prune.. Looks like a  zero storm season. Still hoping for a  1 storm season but thats quickly fading. Other than a  6hr Bonnie there  has  been no tropical development whatsoever this season.

Yeah September is looking pretty dead but you still can't rule out one or two October western Caribbean monsters ala Michael/Wilma/Matthew/Sandy.

12z GFS has zero tropical cyclogenesis and CMC dropped this leading wave as well along with the 00z Euro.  This season is getting pretty laughable.  

1 hour ago, floridapirate said:

That's strange.  Its one thing to like the chase, its another to want landfall and damage for the area

I didn't say I wanted damage, actually I specifically said I didn't want damage...

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Regarding the newest lemon for the AEW modeled to emerge from Africa 9/7-8, at 240 hours the 12Z GFS/CMC have only a very weak surface reflection whereas the 12Z Euro has an organized though weak low moving westward. They are all in the general vicinity of the Leeward Islands suggesting that this may have to be dealt with somewhere in the western basin in ~10-15 days.

Edit: The 12Z EPS is very active with this. What's worrisome is that a good number of members after moving WNW change headings to W near 45W (similar to the operational) ~9/13 and then head W with the accompanying steering high to the north from there through 9/16 to 55-60W in a potentially dangerous position.

 

Not sure if it matters much at this point but it looks like almost all of the members end up curving out to sea. 

I'm a homeowner in Palm Beach County, Florida and I am rooting for a solid cat 1 strike in my area.  I'd take anything that doesn't cause financial damage to my house (or my collection of fruit trees in my backyard).  But a good 70-80 mph storm causing some power outages I'd take (my in-laws live down the street with a whole-house generator so not worried about power outages).  Of course if a Dorian-style major hurricane does strike my area and kill my fruit trees and cause damage to my house, I would be pissed but I wouldn't regret my wishcasting for a storm since that wishcasting had zero impact on the MH strike.  So yeah, I'll be the first to say I hope for some good landfalling hurricanes.

Quite a look on the 12z EPS. Got Earl going all over the place... while unlikely, a loop back to the US is on the table. Then a red hot wave coming off Africa at the end of the run quickly turning into a MH.

49 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I really would not say a storm in the high latitudes and a storm struggling to form at all with nothing else in sight in the deep tropics is 'the switch has already flipped'. We're almost at peak season, you will always get at least a storm or two at this point regardless of overall conditions. The fact that everything is falling apart and struggling to develop in the tropics doesn't make me believe the switch flipped yet. Earl won't even find good conditions to get stronger until it's farther away from the tropics...

Agreed. A flip of the switch implies that bad conditions have switched to good conditions, even close to hyperactive conditions as the forecasts called for. We're not seeing that. We're seeing terrible tropical conditions in the very height of peak conditions which had produced two sloppy marginal storms. And looking at the models into mid September shows nothing changing as well. Of course mid September through October could be active but I don't see any switches flipped currently or in the next week or two on the models. 

Maybe the most interesting thing that happens in the Atlantic this season will be Earl's impact on Europe...

56 knot wind and 998 mb on this pass. Really outperforming what every model has been showing. 

Just a little note: recon found the center south of 18N while the NHC and all the models had at north of 18N. Wonder if that will change anything. 

Euro coming in still further to the south.  Will be interesting to see where it ends up on this run.

25 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Cmc with a 3000 mile shift. What a crap model.

CMC is getting on board with Euro/EPS and UKMET.  Maybe it's just my wishcasting but if this thing stays a mess until the Bahamas, it could come close to CONUS.  This could actually be a very similar origin story as Katrina.