cptcatz

On 7/4/2022 at 7:57 PM, ldub23 said:

This  is the  pattern i expect for the hurricane season. While  its always  possible  1 odd storm can make it thru the coast should  be safe with another early ending season

 

 

Quoting this to come back to it to make you look like a fool in October...

46 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Well, I'm gonna have to disagree with you on the Falcon9 thing. We see every launch from here in the Miami area, as long as clouds aren't in the way.  Here's an example of one I filmed

 

As far as this Astra rocket, I won't claim to know for sure. However what I filmed is not a plane. It appeared at exactly when the Astra rocket launched. It disappeared at exactly when Astra separated stages and turned off thrust. Maybe it's an optical trick where it's really going east but looks like it's going west. Either way doesn't really matter, was just a cool thing to document.

That video isn't in daylight.  That was the January 31 launch which launched at 6:11pm, about 10 minutes after sunset, I watched it from my backyard and it was fantastic (although the best view still goes to the Inspiration4 launch).  Space/rockets interests me just as much as weather and I watch every single rocket launch from here in South Florida.  After numerous tries of trying to see daylight launches in cloudless skies, I eventually gave up as they are simply not visible from here.  And since the Astra rocket is 1/4 the size of a Falcon 9 and today's launch being at 1:40pm, there was a 0% chance of seeing it from Miami with the naked eye.  

9 minutes ago, marsman said:

It went west? The livestream said "a nominal first stage flight". If it did go west that's pretty bad. The brief shot of Florida after first stage separation looked like it did go east.

It did go east. The Astra rocket was not visible from Miami. 

1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said:

And here's my video showing it going the wrong way. Big WTF all around

Hate to break it to you but that's an airplane. You can't see Falcon 9 rockets during the day from Miami, let alone this Astra rocket which is a quarter of the size. 

It freaking failed 10 km before reaching orbit.  Payload lost. 

First launch is scheduled for tomorrow at noon. Hopefully it's a successful launch!

https://spaceflightnow.com/2022/06/10/astra-poised-to-begin-three-launch-campaign-with-nasa-hurricane-research-satellites/

GFS had really been consistent showing a storm moving north out of the Caribbean this time next week. Talking about 7 days from now, it's not really long range fantasy. If this doesn't verify something really needs to be done with the GFS.

27 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

DT just went bonkers for hurricane season based on Euro seasonal forecast. Actually said get vacation insurance late July-September rentals. It’s all on his Facebook page.

Who is DT?

Models are being pretty consistent with another gulf storm in about 1-2 weeks

Just picked up my first sub-1,000 pressure reading

Rain since midnight now at 8.21 inches. Total for storm is 10.35 inches. 

Pressure now down to 1,001.32 mb.

Highest rain and lowest pressure I've seen here since I moved the week after Irma hit (September 2017).

We've been getting really impressive torrential rain for the past hour. Now up to 6.52" for today and continuing to rise fast, which means nearly 2 inches in the last 1.5 hour. Pressure down to 1,001.07 mb.

From my backyard Ambient station in Boca Raton:

Yesterday: 2.14"

As of 8:26am today: 4.71"

Current pressure: 1,003.12 hPa

Radar looks like there's still another couple inches to come.

Looks like it's not going to even be designated a cyclone before hitting Florida. 

Almost looks like there's a new area of rotation forming due west of Key West

23 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Being a transplant from MA. I've always wanted to experience the fury of Mother Nature. The snowstorms, Noreasters, lived through them all. They're all docile compared to a tropical entity. Since being in FL I've had second thoughts, not worth risking life, property and living conditions. Go a week without electric in the Summer heat, most would agree it suxs.
91L is weak sauce I'll be lucky to see winds in the 20-25mph range. Right sided storms just don't cut it. Still fascinating watching the LL swirls getting shredded with the "fixed' open position N of the Yucatan.
NEXT...       

I wouldn't let your guard down when some of the squalls closer to the center come through. We could get some nice gusts. 

And there it is

Gotta think we'll get a PTC, TD, or TS at 5pm along with warnings/watches as impacts in South Florida will likely be starting within 24 hours of then. 

4 minutes ago, CampergirlFL said:

Well, I’m supposed to be towing a camper from east Tampa to west of Jax on Saturday, heading to Savannah but the timeline may have to be flexible.


.

Based on the current trends, I-4 from Tampa to Jacksonville seems to be the cutoff of the impacts. You'd probably miss the bad stuff. 

12z GFS coming in hot with a legit tropical storm hitting Florida and visible satellite is showing some nice spinnage.  Maybe time to make a new 91L thread?

It'll be interesting to see how far east this gets before making landfall and if it can bypass the part of Southern Oaxaca that sticks out. If it gets east of that, it could cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec which is only 124 miles wide with a max elevation under 1,000 feet. That could be a big factor in how disrupted it gets before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. 12z Icon has it getting pretty close, although it still dissipates it.

8 hours ago, Prospero said:

Hermine was one of the three most impressive storms here in Tampa Bay over the past ten years or so. Barely scraped us, but trees and power went down. I still remember it like yesterday. What a mess!

Overnight euro has a strong TS/cat1 heading right to Tampa...

The big three are all in agreement of a sub-1000 storm passing near/over the Florida peninsula.  Probably looking like something like Eta's impacts for us here.

24/13/6

got a feeling about this season

First time this season the bearish Euro has shown a solid TC in the Atlantic.  Seems like over the past few years the Euro showing a TC is not something to brush off...