cptcatz

150 knots about 200 meters high...

The radar loop looks like the eye is moving north of northwest and is on track to make a beeline for downtown New Orleans. 

Is it me or in the last hour did a new tiny eye just come in from the east and replace the old tiny eye?  

1 minute ago, Tezeta said:

No plane is amazing for the board. Without in situ obs to ground our posts we can project our own fantasies more effectively. 

Gonna be last year's Eta hilarious fantasy chaos as the next plane approaches the center.  

7 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

NOAA plane is departing and with the USAF aircraft OOS mechanical, we won't have recon back into Ida until 3 AM CT Sunday. What a wonderful time to have no recon in a system. 

 

Reminds me of last year when the plane was half way to Eta and then turned around during the most impressive satellite presentation of the storm and probably a cat 5.  

3 minutes ago, user13 said:

AF plane looks like it is having issues and returning

Oh man that's a bummer at this point. Also looks like the NOAA plane is finished after only two center fixes. That's strange as the storm isn't far at all from Lakeland so they should have plenty of fuel. 

18 minutes ago, IMADreamer said:

I understand the sentiment but it's important to be accurate with your reporting.  Unfortunately we live in a country where science is already not trusted by many, fudging numbers to reach the next cat does not help that cause any.  I am sure the people who are going to get out are already doing so. 6mph isn't going to change many minds. 

Seriously. Imagine the outrage if it came to light that "the authorities" faked numbers in order to encourage people to do something which the authorities believed was best for the people but the people may not have agreed.

17 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

On a regional basis this could be higher impact than Katrina, where all storm surge came in from the east and affected mostly areas southeast of New Orleans rather than west. This one is about 50 miles further west, and storm surge will come into regions on the west side of the Mississippi but could also repeat Katrina's surge into the southeast. Also it looks like it could be stronger in terms of wind gusts. 

I don't mean to downplay the potential surge from Ida, but at this point in the gulf Katrina was an enormous 902 mb cat 5 monster which was pushing much more water than Ida is now or probably will ever. We'll probably never see anything match Katrina's surge.

11 minutes ago, Cloudyday said:

How do you know that Ida compares to Katrina? what evidence do you base that on?

"Biggest storm since Katrina" is saying that Ida will not be as big as Katrina but will be bigger than every storm that has come between Katrina and now. Would you disagree that this will be the biggest storm since Katrina that New Orleans has faced?

CMC's forecast for Labor Day...

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It meant you were unpure and being punished

Lol. I've always been interested in how ancient people experienced natural disasters for the first time. Imagine being a European colonist just settling in some tropical paradise in the Caribbean, and then you get hit by an eye of a major hurricane. Like that's gotta be a real "wtf is happening?!" moment.

I remember in the early 1500s when us colonists didn't even know what a hurricane was. Man that first one that hit us was sure a surprise!

Nice thing from here on out is the NOAA and AF planes will have a short trip to get to the storm.  Nothing worse than a plane taking off and thinking ok it will be in the storm in 3 hours from now.

Since it's 2021 maybe we should just ask Ida what it/she/he/zhe/they identify as instead of us just assuming?

50 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

For the love of god is it east or west? Can we stop over analyzing every wobble.

 

Also the hurricane is an it….not a he or she.

No sorry, the National Hurricane Center names hurricanes with definitive male or female name. Male named hurricanes are "he" and female named hurricanes are "she". Ida is a she.

First eye dropsonde launched at 9:44 measured 987 mb with 8 kts wind. Second eye dropsonde launched at 11:01 measured 986 mb with 11 kts wind. Seems like it's intensifying. 

22 minutes ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said:

Having lived through it, I 100% agree. its insane how much it is brought up.

Having lived through it as well, it was the worst natural disaster in NYC history. Why would you expect it to not be talked about on a tropical weather forum?

Looks like there's one slim strip of mountains it will go over. From what I can tell the highest peaks are under 2,000 feet with most of the range being less than 1,000 feet. Compare that to the 14,000 foot peaks of Hispaniola, this shouldn't do much. 

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All the reduced time frame does is limit chances to complete an ERC. This is why the majority of the most intense US landfalls are not long tracking CV storms....wild card being the degree of interaction with higher terrain over Cuba.

The reduced time frame will also limit storm surge. 

2 hours ago, Prospero said:

@turtlehurricane

Yea we in Florida always want that close by pass of the biggest storm. We live for that sometimes!

When we posted our predictions I think I said Ida would "the" historic one for this season. But it is earlier than I expected and just don't feel it much. Too fast, still not much to look at, etc. The models show a storm with potential, I see that. Maybe it will ease east and north, or not. I enjoy the anticipation, but not holding my breath for a wild storm-chasing live event.

I do suspect I was wrong about Ida being the historic storm of the season though. (But being wrong is something I am used to!)

 

With the center being so far north in the Caribbean and all the convection to the north and east of the center, it may very well brush you in Tampa Bay. GFS shows this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it get even closer. 

Any chance it does a Charley/Wilma turn and slam Florida?

5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

How does New Orleans come back from this (if they do at all?)

Zeta's eye went right over New Orleans last year after making landfall with winds of 115 mph. Seemed like New Orleans was barely affected by Zeta though. Why were the effects minimal in Zeta but expected to be catastrophic with this?

52 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

You ever been w/o electricity more than a day or two?  My biggest and 'badest' was 60 miles inland from a Cat 2, not even a major, and houses in my neighborhood had roof damage (not my roof, although I had tiles and boards from somebody's roof in my yard).  I was lucky, only 5 days no power.  I get hyped about big weather events, I suspect most people on the board do, but imagine someone hoping your home town is ground zero for an EF-5 tornado.  Those are intriguing and historical as well.

The way I see it is you can hope and wish for the biggest destructive storm or you can hope and wish for sunshine all year, but at the end of the day your hoping and wishing has absolutely zero impact on what will actually happen.  As long as you're not making light of someone else's actual misery, I say hope and wish for whatever you want.  

Euro going all in on this MDR storm.  Would be a massive ACE maker regardless where it goes.

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Looks  like the real season is about to begin.

Wait, I thought you said earlier in this thread that the season was a bust and September was going to be nothing-ville?  You also said Grace was gonna fall apart.  

Anyways, after 99L impacts the Gulf Coast, we will turn our attention to the MDR.  GFS finally got on board along with CMC and Euro for a strong developing system.  GFS has it approaching the Bahamas at the end of the run.