cptcatz

Overnight Euro, ICON and CMC are all back with developing the second wave leaving Africa on 8/24.  Now the GFS is alone not developing that one...

GFS operational may have eased up but the ensembles still rock Florida and the Gulf Coast in this mornings 06z run. 

^GEFS goes ham on south Florida.  August 25 will mark the 17 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina making landfall, the last time a hurricane has made landfall on the east coast of Florida...

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Lets see what  it  looks  like at  06Z. Just need the wheel to be a  bit stronger.

 

 

 

06z goes just as nuts

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

12Z the  major  hurricane turned into a  1010mb  nothing. 2 other weak lows. For  peak season this  is rather  pathetic. There  is also a potent TUTT which is  no doubt why the  monster cane turned into a tame teletubby.

The 12Z GFS ensembles are still blasting the east coast...

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

0Z not all that thrilling for phase 2 and season peak. Hints and signs though!!

Aaaand 06Z back to showing 3-1-1 in the MDR by end of August. 

Looks like Euro/EPS and GFS/GFES are both in agreement that potentially three waves could develop by the end of August. Waves come off around Aug 20, 24, and another around the 29th that both models are seeing. I suppose we're gonna be sone quietness from ldub...

Here we go, the MDR is waking up

12z euro sticking with that wave...

Euro/EPS and CMC both seeing a solid wave emerging Africa in 10 days. Gotta see if they stick with it and if GFS gets on board, maybe this will finally be the start of the season. 

Now this might be the most interesting thing a model has shown this season, even if it may be 384 hours out...

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

This is the  peak of the season? Nothing?

No, August 8 is not the peak of the season.  It's not even a month away from the peak of the season.  Try again.

10 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Rooting for hyperactive seasons is weird considering the increased risks for death if the storm hits land.

Why are any of us on this website if we don't enjoy watching the extremes of weather?  The way I see it, it makes no difference what you root for since it has zero impact on what will happen.

Can't wait til ldub eats his/her words. I'm just gonna leave this post here from August 10, 2017

7 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

Funny thing about this forum. I can always tell what the latest turn of events is with regard to the Atlantic Hurricane Season by who has the last post

 

If the last post is from IDUB then the latest thinking is bearish.

If the last post is from Cptcatz thanthe latest thinking is bullish 

lol I didn't think I come across too bullish.  But...

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

The  good  news and the  bad  news.

 

 

The  good  news  is  both the GFS and  Euro develop a  very  weak low that  might  be  a short lived TD/TS. But then they run into very  unfavorable  conditions  in the west atl and  poof. This  overall pattern remains horrific  for  anything worth  following. Gigantic  low  in the  central ATL plunging  more dry air  into the tropics. Mega trof  remains  entrenched along and  off the east  coast. Nothing  fast and  furious about this  pattern. If that  low locks  in then there  is  no hurricane season. Looks  like the  MJO and  the  moisture  is  still locked and  loaded  in the east  pac. Not  sure  i have seen a worse  looking  map in mid AUG for tropical development. For whats  its worth  that super  central atlantic  low should  cause additional warming  in the tropical sst's.

I'll do my part with a bullish response here.  Models are starting to come into agreement that cyclogenesis will occur in about 4-5 days.  Then you're talking about what conditions might look like in 10+ days.  Models have zero idea what conditions look like 10 days down the road.  Whenever I think of that, I always go back to Dorian.  Here were the EPS 10 day ensembles:

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

This  is  1954 like if it  happens. JB-o-meter hasnt  mentioned  it  yet and will need to see  it  on the Euro as well.

 

Euro ensembles are picking up on it:

GFS/CMC/Euro are all starting to pick up on the MDR wave as well.  Could be tracking two systems next week.  So much for your 0-0-0 August prediction. 

With the tropics quiet for now, it's fun to look back at the older thread posts...

August 10, 2017:

August 11, 2017:

Here we go! Major into Mexico and another little something into Florida...

What would (or did) ldub say at this point during the 1999 season?

GEFS is starting to hint at some Caribbean/Gulf action in mid August for a few runs now.  How soon before ldub changes his 0-0-0 August predicition?  

I'm not making any prediction here, but for those writing off the season on July 27 needs to remember there are three months of peak season ahead of us and it only takes two months of hurricanes to make a 226.9 ACE season:

5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

My point would  be  1975 and  2000 werent what was advertised  by most  if  not all the seasonal forecasters. If we do have another  1975 or  2000 then i will feel vindicated  im my ideas.

I wasn't following hurricanes back then but just taking a look at the wikipedia page, the 2000 season lived up to or outdid the forecasts. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Pre-season_outlooks

11 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Right  now  the  MJO is supposedly  favorable yet  nothing  is  happening. The  MJO isnt going to stay favorable and  if  it  goes  negative  in mid aug the season might  not start till mid sept.

Logic not even once.

Statement #1 implies that MJO doesn't have as much bearing as people may think.

Statement #2 implies that the MJO going negative will have a large bearing on the season.

For those responding to ldub, just remember he posted these posts in July/August 2020:

Yep, those Falcon9 launches at twilight are amazing.  This was the view from my backyard.