cptcatz

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

It was, wish the modeling would have held. I think some people got a sense of security when the track supposedly shifted north into the big bend area. Unfortately thats just how it goes with forecasting.

If they would have just thrown the GFS in the garbage where it belongs and went with king euro the entire time, it would have been perfect.

Looking ahead, models are in agreement that another AEW will be emerging in a couple days which will develop in the eastern Atlantic. Kinda surprised the NHC hasn't lemoned it yet since all models show it developing in less than 5 days. Euro and icon have it riding low, GFS and CMC have it quickly curving out. 

Longer range, GFS is hinting at another Caribbean storm, bombing it out on the 06z run to 922 mb...

40 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Unfortunately once over land recon can't fly into Ian so they use satellite estimates and models that estimate weakening so is it perfect? No. Could Ian be weaker than this? Yes. But is it still a powerful and dangerous hurricane? Definitely. That nw eyewall is still pounding many cities with high end winds and extreme flooding rain. 

I think what he's trying to say is that right now (as of 10pm), the NHC is saying that this storm is producing surface level sustained winds of 100 mph somewhere.  You don't need recon planes or satellites or models to tell us that.  The storm is well inland in a populated area.  If the storm is actually producing 100 mph sustained winds, we would know.  But it's not.  So what is the NHC telling us?  That if this same storm were over open water then it would be producing 100 mph winds?  What good is that?  Why not just use actual surface wind measurements to tell us what the storm is currently doing?

On 9/18/2022 at 6:54 PM, GaWx said:

 There are a significant number (nearly 25%) of 12Z EPS members landfalling on the CONUS 9/29-10/2 as hurricanes or as a strong TS from TX through NC with also a couple of still offshore threats. At least half of these hit the FL Gulf coast, which is my #1 risk area this season based on third year cold ENSO analogs. Being that this was a more active EPS run than prior ones, I wouldn't be surprised if most of the next ones over the next few days aren't as active. Regardless, this will more than likely be the next potential threat period on the CONUS.

Good call

Pretty disappointing how dry and boring the eastern side of the storm system is. I was hoping to see a little more action here in Palm Beach County. 

With this plane headed for the storm, can we do the intensity guessing game like we did for Eta back in 2020? That was the lolziest thing I've ever seen here. I'll start:

928 mb, 165 mph

933.1 mb in this pass

162 knot wind picked up on this dropsonde 

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Lots of tornadic action from the outer bands crossing into South Florida. I don’t recall hearing of this high level of tornado activity either when Ian approached Caymans or Cuba.   Does anyone know what seems to be more favorable in S FL that gives rise to tornado genesis? 

This is just a total amateur guess but could be simply because of land area which allows us to know they are there. The islands are tiny compared to Florida so the odds of a tornado hitting one is very low. Maybe there were just as many tornadoes out in the water but we never knew since we had no radar or people to see them. If a tornado forms in the middle of the ocean and no one was around to see it, did it make a noise?

6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Pressure is quite a bit higher now as per recon, likely the EWRC doing a number on Ian (for the time being). 

Recon just recorded 946 mb. Winds not impressive on this NW-SE fix but but should be higher in the NE.

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. 

Landfalling south of Naples would bring devestating impacts to the east coast, exactly like Wilma did.  Dade-Broward-Palm Beach is the most populated part of the state and the eye going through there would be nearly worst case scenario.

That's an amazing structure for having just crossed over Cuba. Do you think cat 5 is on the table?

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Someone from Tampa would know this but wouldn't a landfall just south be a problem for places like eastern coastal St Pete and Pinellas point be vulnerable as a E-NE fetch of 50 plus knots pushes water across the bay...obviously you would not be piling water in advance from the Gulf but I imagine a nasty 3-4 foot surge could still happen

Tampa Bay has an average depth of only 12 feet so there is relatively very little water to pile up compared to all the water that can be pushed the other way from the GOM. 

Northern eyewall back over water. 

Recon just did fix the center to be moving east of north although very slightly.

06z Euro making landfall at Sarasota/Bradenton and 24 hours later only getting to Lakeland which is only 50 miles away.  Although this run initializes at 989 mb over Cuba so not sure if the wrong intensity would affect the track.

Did that plane fly through the eye over land? I thought they don't do that. 

The southeast trends continue...

12z Icon correcting way west. That was always the eastern outlier so it looks like everything is starting to come together. Tampa could dodge a huge bullet. 

8 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I will have to disagree. Its going to be crawling into a  very  very  cool stable airmass. The weakening  is going to be dramatic. If  it does  landfall in the  pnahandle this seems reasonable. Most  likely a high end tropical storm but as we know when a storm is falling apart it  has a  very  hard time transporting wind to the  surface. Very  likely devoid  of  convection with a winterlike rain shield to its  north.

 

It will still have huge surge though. Surge isn't correlated with the intensity at landfall but is a function of the size, intensity, and time over water of the entire history of the storm. All the water that the storm was pushing out in front of it will still be there. Similar situation as Sandy which was a massive storm over water for a very long time and even though it made landfall with only cat 1 winds, those other factors caused 14 foot storm surges.

71 knots in the NE quad. Special advisory coming with upgrade to hurricane?

2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Are you all comparing the same frame? 72 hours on the 18Z Euro is 18Z on Wednesday. Compared to 18Z Wednesday on the 12Z run, it’s a bit further north, not west. 

It's a bit north and west. 

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

Mission inbound from Florida now. Should hopefully give us some better insight as to how this system has faired throughout the course of the day. 

Yep Andy Hazelton tweeted that he was on it. 

2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Better a Major coming at you and weakening into a TS than a TS suddenly becoming a Major at landfall.

 

Not necessarily. Surge would be worse in the first scenario. Look at the difference between Katrina and Ida.

Not sure if I'm being a weenie but it kind of looks like the low level swirl is moving due north on visible. A little hard to tell through the taller clouds but that's what my eyes see.