cptcatz

5 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down.

According to the last few Euro runs, it has Karen forming off the coast of Africa and getting huge in the mid-Atlantic and Lorenzo forming in the southeast Caribbean, both within the next week or so.

Looks like the big kicker is how far north it gets before getting to the islands.  

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My apologies...It seemed that some thought it the setup favored more activity getting closer to the coast. Could've misread that, though...sorry for derailing the thread.

I'm still kind of new to tropical weather tracking, but is it even possible to predict activity getting closer to the coast? I thought actual tracks of the storms were more luck as the storm played out rather than being able to predict well weeks or months in advance. 

Today's 12z Euro ends with 97L getting blocked just northeast of the Bahamas, even moving back south in the last frame.  And then it has the next wave getting pretty strong way out in the Atlantic.  Not sure what you people are saying about questioning the activity... it looks like wave after wave is developing now.

Is it me or does 95L look like it's getting better organized with every frame on satellite?

12z brings it right through the Bahamas including the islands that just got the eye of Dorian...

The 18z GFS decimates the entire state of Florida

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro had to play catch-up with the initial formation of Dorian.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1165274788564209664

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1164956582926405632

 

 

Very interesting.  This soon-to-be-95L could be another big one then.

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb

Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands

It's almost the exact same route that Dorian took through the Caribbean.  Does anyone know how the GFS and Euro looked at this point for Dorian?  Tropical Tidbits only goes back to September 2.  I'd love to see the models from mid-August.

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about

He's just a late bloomer but eventually joins the party

The last two GFS runs now show the wave behind 94L becoming Dorian 2.0...

Now the 12z's Euro and GFS are in general agreement with a storm developing just north of Puerto Rico.

5 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

The GFS doesn't know what to do with this thing. Keeps stalling it/slowing it down north of the Turks though.  Dangerous area if it did end up there.

Whats the Euro have?

It looks like it stalls 94L but then kinda merges it with the wave behind it which then develops it into a nice storm but keeps it out to sea. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

NHC gave it a 70% chance of development within 5 days. Spaghetti models are pretty locked into the idea of slow development and a West track.

If it can stick together and make its way into the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, it could have the potential to really ramp up.  I don't think Dorian caused any upwelling in those areas so the water should be prime for intensification.  

Last two GFS runs (6z and 12z) now show it fizzling.

18 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Why would this be the worst possible track and not one slamming into the Jersey sure say ? 

Because it would bring catastrophic storm surge flooding into Chesapeake Bay, NYC Harbor, and Boston Harbor, while bringing flooding rains and torrential winds to Washington, Baltimore, NJ, NYC, and Boston.   

The worst possible track a hurricane can take?

^Boston getting wrecked in 2.5 weeks

But the tropics have really come alive!  From right to left we have Tropical Depression 8, Invest 91L, Hurricane Dorian, Tropical Storm Fernand, and Hurricane Juliette:

Just something to keep in mind... these were the model tracks for Irma 2-3 days before it made the turn:

Looks like we have two more waves coming off Africa that the Euro really likes developing over the past few runs...

Looks like a bunch of the recent GFS runs are all showing a significant system developing around the Yucatan/Caribbean around October 1. Still a ways out, should be interesting to see if the Euro picks up on it. 

I don't get why there's so much hate against the media for overplaying the storm and not against the models. Up until a couple days before landfall all the models had this forecasted to hit as a strong cat 4. All the media was doing was warning the public. The models ended up being wrong. 

20 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

wrong

Wow 1-2 feet of snow in the interior mountains of West Virginia and Kentucky.  Must have been traumatizing for the tens of people who live there to deal with snow amounts which they are perfectly accustomed to.  

2 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Look, will the storm likely weaken as it slows down just off the coast?  Sure , most likely, but that doesn't diminish the effects, it just changes them.  When have you last seen a Cat 3 hurricane slow to a crawl and even stall just off the coast as some of the models are depicting (with several placing the eyewall on the the coast for multiple hours)?  This storm has the "potential" to be far more devastating then even a full on landfalling Cat 4 hurricane simply due to the shear amount of time the effects may be felt along such a large portion of the coastline.  Its going to be interesting regardless and certainly should not be downplayed.

It's funny how he's from NYC and yet forgets about the impact of post-tropical-cyclone, former extratropical storm, former category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, Sandy, a storm which made landfall 90 miles away from Manhattan, and yet caused the most destruction that NYC has ever seen from a weather event. 

29 minutes ago, jburns said:

We better hope that the two possible systems trailing Florence don't develop and follow a similar path. One of my earliest weather memories was in 1955 when hurricane Connie went through and was quickly followed by hurricane Dianne. The flooding was horrendous

Obviously this is 2 weeks away so it really means nothing, but the GFS has the remnants of 92L going right over the same area.