cptcatz

06z HMON with a landfall around West Palm Beach and 12z HMON landfall in the Keys.  

95L now at 50/60% odds and is looking nice and juicy in the Caribbean this morning.  Maybe a depression by tonight?

11 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

How many hours of good hurricane have we had this season? My guess is less than 100, with epsilon being 24 of that. 

Feels like a day of Laura, a day of Sally, a day of Delta, a few hours of Hanna, and maybe an hour of Isaias.

38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Zeta: ?  My guess this has a 30-50% chance of forming... still warm sst. Minor (marghginal TS) event somewhere e coast Fl newd to near or west of Bermuda. Here's a modeling image.  Several operational models show tight shallow warm core. Includes UK, RGEM, GGEM GFS, ICON, NAEFS implied (no JMA/EC). My guess it's a junk storm as some might call it, except if you're in it's marine path. Am monitoring models... definitely not what the GFS was calling for 10 days ago but something can yet emerge. 

Although the GFS misforcasted the development of the system while in the Caribbean, it got the track and timing pretty dead on 10 days out. 

That being said, it's still showing an outbreak in the Caribbean the first week of November. GFS-P is hinting at two storms, with yesterday's 18z run having one Wilma track through Florida and the other one dropping to 935 mb south of Cuba...

33 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

It always has a storm > 300 hrs. I had patio work done in Aug and kept a lot of things inside. I'm putting them all back outside this weekend. Door is shut IMHO for CONUS landfall. I believe I read 5 landfalls in Nov since 1850. 

The GFS had not been doing the fantasy storm thing at all this season up until last week.  In fact, it was having a really hard time picking up any storms in the long range that actually ended up forming.  I wouldn't count out the first week of November yet.

I know the GFS just punked us with the storm that should have been forming right now in the Caribbean, but it's also pointing to another strong possibility the first week of November. One last trick up its sleeve?

The best looking eye of the 2020 season is the 27th tropical cyclone on October 21 in the northern Atlantic.

GEFS ensembles are still showing a solid signal of something coming out of the Caribbean later this week.

What a bust.  On to the next one!  Long range GFS/GFS-P showing another Caribbean possibility around November 1...

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And Euro also

Well Euro never had it in the first place. It was the last week of GFS runs that got anticipation pumping. 

Looks like GFS wants to drop the Caribbean storm. Oof what a bust. 

GEFS is also showing another Caribbean storm around November 1.  This one next week may not be the last...

Looking more at the 18z GFS, if that were actually to verify, that would be three straight days of hurricane or tropical storm conditions for me here in Boca Raton. From 06z Sunday to 06z Wednesday. 

18z GFS is drunk, go home.

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

Its the GFS.. rhetorical question?

I mean from a meteorological standpoint. These two runs might be the craziest path I've ever seen a model show a hurricane take.  Is it actually possible?

The last two GFS-P runs are quite interesting.  Both runs take a strong hurricane into the Florida straits and does a zigzag/loop near Cuba/Florida keys with multiple impacts in the same areas.  Any chance this can actually happen?

Euro showing a storm coming out of the central Atlantic but not the Caribbean storm?

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gotta hand it to the GFS if this system develops in the western Caribbean, it’s been showing it in long range, now medium range for endless runs now

And at the same time if it doesn't develop that would be a massive fail for the GFS.

The 12z GFS run is almost exactly the same as Wilma.  This could be setting up for quite a season finale.

2020 may still have a run at seeing a cat 5...

Alright guys let's get back to discussing our possible mega storm 10-15 days out.  06Z GFS-P still showing this monster skirting the east coast.  I think a takeaway from these models is the size of this storm.  A small shift in track can mean impacts to large areas.

Another GFS run with a Florida impact.  Looks like the western Caribbean starts spinning up around hour 200 so let's see if Euro catches on or not.

8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Anyone else see the 06Z GEFS and GFS op?

(at work so can't post it, but suffice to say it was...eyebrow raising)

The GFS 06z run was just posted above by Prospero.  Could be a Wilma part 2 exactly 15 years later to the day.  (Wilma struck Florida on October 24)

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A track often modeled, only verified what...3-4 times in history? Lol But this is 2020!

2020 going out with a bang laughing at all those people who say Florida has force field?

18z GFS continues with the gigantic storm, this run a bad scenario for Miami metro