cptcatz

The 12z Euro and CMC are still hinting at MDR development in 10 days.

No other models showing this but the CMC is on to storm entering the Caribbean next weekend...

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

Imagine, for example, 5 hurricanes develop off the CV islands... if they all travel over the same path over and over, the water heat content won't be as high as if they all went over water that had not yet been disturbed by prior tropical systems.

Perhaps I am overthinking... but I think that's what would happen

Yeah that was talked about a lot during the Irma-Jose-Maria trio in 2017 that all went over the same area in a short amount of time. It's upwelling. 

I don't mean to get too ahead of ourselves but there's ANOTHER massive wave about to move off of Africa...

Looks like maybe Irma v2?

Euro has a strong cat 2 barreling towards the SE coast.  10 days out, but still...

Interesting last frame of the 12z CMC.  Gonzalo intact heading into Texas and the next wave intact heading towards the Bahamas/Florida.  GFS still not developing that next wave at all.  But CMC was the only model spot on developing Gonzalo so...

Many Euro ensembles bring that next wave to major hurricane status.  And strangely the GFS isn't even showing it.

The Euro has been getting more aggressive with the wave behind 99L.  That might be more interesting to watch.

Convection has picked up on 99L over the last few hours...

From what I understand, dry air is the main limiting factor right now in the MDR.  Looks like it stays dry for the next couple weeks with a final blast of dry air around August 1 but behind that it looks like mostly moist air moving off of Africa.  Am I reading this right?

So the GFS is now out to August 3 with no signs of development. When does that proverbial switch get turned on?

Not sure how reliable it is but the CMC gets pretty aggressive with that wave. 

Today's 12z GFS finally shows some development at the latest hour near Florida.  It's obviously a long way away but it looks like the same wave that the Euro hints at developing in MDR less than 10 days out.

The 00z GFS shows a depression forming 100 hours out and then intensifying to 974 mb at hour 174.  Wonder when the NHC will pick up on it.

Looks like the next system could be the little end of the front hanging and developing off the coast of Georgia this weekend. Probably minor impacts for the Florida/Georgia coast then the bigger stuff stays out to sea. GFS shows maybe a hurricane OTS.

So is the rain that has already fallen in Africa going to impact peak season?  In other words, if it totally stops raining right now, are the pieces already in place for an active MDR during peak season?

The GFS backed off the June 17 storm for a few days but is back with it on today's 12z run. This run has it going right into the northern Gulf coast so it's definitely something to keep an eye on.

I know it's way down the line but the GFS has consistently shown on multiple runs another storm forming in the western Caribbean around June 17.  The GFS did a great job forecasting Cristobal from about the same time out, so it could be another one to watch.

I know this is hour 384 of the GFS (which means nothing), but this is quite a screenshot!

We now have four straight GFS runs (yesterday 18Z, today 00Z, 06Z, and 12Z) showing a big tropical storm in the Gulf on June 7.

Euro getting on board with a Gulf storm first week of June...

Looks like Arthur should be here in the next couple days...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 

1. A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a 
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
are expected to become conducive for development, and this system 
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday 
or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The 
system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the 
western Atlantic early next week. 

Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to 
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast 
Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind 
gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and 
the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions 
are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas 
where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local 
weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical 
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or 
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown

The GFS has consistiently been showing a pretty strong hurricane forming in the Pacific and making landfall in Central America.  Now the last two runs (May 8 00z and 06z) have it reforming in the Caribbean.  It'll be interesting to see if the models keep that up.

Now the Euro is on board with possible development next weekend?