cptcatz

The 12z Euro run has it intensifying from 976 to 955 between hours 24 and 48...

The eastern outflow is looking much healthier now than it did a few hours ago.  Also does look like a tiny eye is forming in the last few frames.

Man if this reaches cat 5 in the next ~12 hours that would make 5 straight years of a cat 5, and even more scary/impressive/sad would be 4 straight years of a hurricane making landfall at cat 5 intensity. 

On 9/30/2020 at 2:15 PM, Amped said:

 

GFS Para is the new 3km NAM, it's done this all season. 

Yeah I know the whole a broken clock is still right twice a day thing but the GFS-P was the only model that was consistently showing Delta developing into a significant hurricane in the long range.  

35 minutes ago, Prospero said:

OK, let's say I am in Michigan, on my way to Cancun. I do not even know about AmericaMX, never ever look at NHC website, I'll think I'll be arriving for a vacation with a breezy day and have some tropical drinks. Because I check the Weather Channel website like most people do. UGH

Might end up at the airport all packed up ready to fly down and be cancelled (if lucky).

 

I'd assume most people would click the day to see a slightly more detailed description. Then they would see tropical storm conditions likely, and at that point they should look further into it. 

9 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I decided to look up "Gamma" on the internet, to see what I could learn.

Now I think forever to me, "Gamma" was the tropical storm that was in early October 2020.

First thing I think of is the robot from the video game Sonic Adventure for Dreamcast. 

What's up with 92L losing all its convection?

NHC now has the second wave up, first wave is up to 70%

And yet the Euro continues to show zero tropical development...

GFS-Para.  A major storm taking this western route into Miami would be catastrophic in terms of storm surge.  That right front quadrant would pile up the water into Biscayne Bay.

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

GFS now showing  nothing. Looks  like we  have  indeed ended the season very  early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season.

Lol. I'm predicting two more majors coming out of the Caribbean. 

1. A broad area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean 
Sea in a few days.  Some slow development is possible late this week 
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

When's the last real decent October Western Caribbean major? 

Michael? Didn't peak in the Caribbean but still an October Caribbean hurricane that became a major. 

06z GFS-Para shows back to back storms out of the Caribbean, first one looks like to make landfall around Tampa then stalls and fizzles, then a couple days later the next storm plows through south Florida at 942 mb...

Models are not showing it hitting SE Florida 5-10 days out.  I guess that means SE Florida is getting a landfall.

12 hours ago, Prospero said:

Watching here in Gulfport Florida. We never get too relaxed this time of year. Granted, it is quiet now and absolutely gorgeous as far as weather. But as the Grateful Dead say, "When life looks like Easy Street, there is danger at your door".

Even so, it does feel like things are over here for us. Kind of hoping, we were very lucky so far for 2020. It has been interesting season (ok maybe trolling Ghost of Leroy), and we felt several storms with gusts in the TS range, a lot of rain at times, mild surges, etc., but all in all very easy season for the central west coast of Florida. We were in five day cones, so we did have moments of excitement. LOL

Same here on the east coast of Florida (Palm Beach County). We were in the cones of Isaias and Laura and actually got a hurricane warning from Isaias, but our worst impacts were from when tropical depression pre-Sally moved through. 

I have a feeling Florida's force field may come down in the next couple weeks...

9 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

It really has been an odd but solid year for tracking. I hate so many were impacted though. We will see how October materializes and whether the FL peninsula can keep the force field going. It's the only place that hasn't really been impacted. Isaias had warnings but very minimal impact to FL. 

 

Our worst weather of the season in SE Florida was probably when tropical depression "Sally" moved through which gave steady squalls all day.  Didn't get much more than a breeze during Isaias.

On another note, Euro is showing an African wave developing in about 9 days and staying well south under a huge Bermuda high...

21 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

B+ is about right but this is like when the valedictorian just mails it in. If it were the dumb kid studying hard we could root for it. But here we shame. 

What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory?

Probably the only thing that actually would do it across the board would be a CONUS cat 5 landfall in a mid-sized city or bigger.  Or maybe a cat 3-4 with an Irma-like track that affects the entire Florida peninsula. 

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Well we got a CONUS intense landfall out of the way. There are inactive years here and there that have these (Andrew '92) albeit rare. But we've seemingly had everything this year except an Atlantic Cat 5. Those used to be rare, but since 2016, Octobers alone have given us three (Matthew, Maria and Michael). Wild all were 'M' storms. Mu anyone?

Kind of a stretch to call Maria an October storm.  NHC wasn't even issuing advisories to post-tropical storm Maria in October...

Although way out in fantasy land, the GFS and the Para are showing consistent signs of a Caribbean storm forming first week of October. 

How about they just retire the greek letter and not use it anymore?  What are the chances that enough greek letters are retired that they eventually run out of letters?  I'd say zero.

Any chance this ends up heading east towards Florida?

The GFS and Para have been hinting at a Caribbean storm at the end of the month. The 06z Para shows it crossing Florida and riding up the east coast. 

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone!

Except when we had three years in a row with a cat 5 at landfall, anything not being a cat 5 at landfall will be a bust.

I don't envy the NHC if/when they have to come up with a cone for this one...