cptcatz

Xiomara? Is that even a name?

Did anyone else use to watch Barney? I keep singing the Sally the Camel song...

3 minutes ago, Prospero said:

There was a Major landfall in LA this season?

Oh yea, seems like a distant memory. There were some power outages, a surge, some wind. Yea, was it...Laura?

Don't you remember the "unsurvivable storm surge"? 

25 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Repeating my post from the other thread from yesterday afternoon which I received six hot dogs for:

Something seems off about the forecast. Motion looks almost south right now and is still getting better organized. If it makes the move west at this southern position it would go right through the Florida Straits. Then with conditions looking good in the Gulf, I see no reason why this doesn't bomb out similar to Laura. I'm calling for another cat 4+.

Actually now that I see it's supposed to be a slow mover, I'm upping my prediction to a solid cat 5. This will have the time that Hanna and Laura didn't. Calling for hurricane at 11am tomorrow and a major by Monday morning. 

Repeating my post from the other thread from yesterday afternoon which I received six hot dogs for:

Something seems off about the forecast. Motion looks almost south right now and is still getting better organized. If it makes the move west at this southern position it would go right through the Florida Straits. Then with conditions looking good in the Gulf, I see no reason why this doesn't bomb out similar to Laura. I'm calling for another cat 4+.

Euro showing another low rider heading into the Caribbean, I assume would be Vicky. 

It looks like there's an area of convection out ahead of 95L around 50W. Any chance this can spin up?

25 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

ECMWF ensemble consensus is still the best for tracking, period. Sure, they still miss. But there is a reason we still chew nails awaiting their rums.

What good is it when half the ensembles show a recurve in the middle of the Atlantic and half show a monster storm in the Caribbean heading to Florida?

6z GFS taking an Irma route across the Keys and up the west coast of Florida

Happy peak of hurricane season day to all!

6 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Which of those do you think will be equivalent to or better than a category 2 land hurricane like the Iowa derecho? 

Probably this one? Looks like a bad surge event for Tampa Bay...

18 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Uh oh.  18Z GFS hours 300 on takes Sally or Teddie to Miami 960mb then north to Cape Hatteras and over NYC.  Is it a lock?

Where are you seeing this? The GFS is loading super slow for me. 

12z GFS with the dirty side of 959 mb Sally going into Tampa Bay...

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd. 

This has been mentioned many times already but the problem was the crazy high pre- and mid-season forecasts hyping everyone up.  

Euro goes crazy in the 12z run

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s been on the ensembles for weeks.

Right, hence the "seeing a lot of signs", yet haven't seen much discussion about it here so I brought it up.

Still a long way away but I'm seeing a lot of signs for the next wave (would be Sally) to be a low rider and possibly make it across the Atlantic. 

That wave south of Hispanola is the one that the GFS Para was calling to become a hurricane to slam into the northeast earlier this week but then backed off.  It's got some spin to it already....

11am update now has it maxing out at 70 mph.

Interesting how NHC still has it intensifying to cat 1 even with the models showing this.  I wonder what it's like in the NHC office with basically zero trust in model guidance these days.

Euro shows two cyclones in the Atlantic

Models are finally agreeing on a big uptick of MDR activity in about 8-10 days from now. 

34 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Yes, and no cheeky, "well, we'll see!" from you either. We're going to have a hyperactive season. Get it into your head

Well... the group of us will watch 

56 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

13 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane by August 26th...

But with CSU's forecast of 24/12/5, we have a LONG way to go if that's gonna verify. Do you think we will still see 11/8/4 over the rest of the season?

Yeah that's quite a monster