cptcatz

The best looking eye of the 2020 season is the 27th tropical cyclone on October 21 in the northern Atlantic.

GEFS ensembles are still showing a solid signal of something coming out of the Caribbean later this week.

What a bust.  On to the next one!  Long range GFS/GFS-P showing another Caribbean possibility around November 1...

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And Euro also

Well Euro never had it in the first place. It was the last week of GFS runs that got anticipation pumping. 

Looks like GFS wants to drop the Caribbean storm. Oof what a bust. 

GEFS is also showing another Caribbean storm around November 1.  This one next week may not be the last...

Looking more at the 18z GFS, if that were actually to verify, that would be three straight days of hurricane or tropical storm conditions for me here in Boca Raton. From 06z Sunday to 06z Wednesday. 

18z GFS is drunk, go home.

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

Its the GFS.. rhetorical question?

I mean from a meteorological standpoint. These two runs might be the craziest path I've ever seen a model show a hurricane take.  Is it actually possible?

The last two GFS-P runs are quite interesting.  Both runs take a strong hurricane into the Florida straits and does a zigzag/loop near Cuba/Florida keys with multiple impacts in the same areas.  Any chance this can actually happen?

Euro showing a storm coming out of the central Atlantic but not the Caribbean storm?

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gotta hand it to the GFS if this system develops in the western Caribbean, it’s been showing it in long range, now medium range for endless runs now

And at the same time if it doesn't develop that would be a massive fail for the GFS.

The 12z GFS run is almost exactly the same as Wilma.  This could be setting up for quite a season finale.

2020 may still have a run at seeing a cat 5...

Alright guys let's get back to discussing our possible mega storm 10-15 days out.  06Z GFS-P still showing this monster skirting the east coast.  I think a takeaway from these models is the size of this storm.  A small shift in track can mean impacts to large areas.

Another GFS run with a Florida impact.  Looks like the western Caribbean starts spinning up around hour 200 so let's see if Euro catches on or not.

8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Anyone else see the 06Z GEFS and GFS op?

(at work so can't post it, but suffice to say it was...eyebrow raising)

The GFS 06z run was just posted above by Prospero.  Could be a Wilma part 2 exactly 15 years later to the day.  (Wilma struck Florida on October 24)

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A track often modeled, only verified what...3-4 times in history? Lol But this is 2020!

2020 going out with a bang laughing at all those people who say Florida has force field?

18z GFS continues with the gigantic storm, this run a bad scenario for Miami metro

GFS/GFS-P sure like something forming but they're all over the place with exactly what. The 00z GFS- P shows what may be the largest tropical circulation I think I've ever seen. 

^it actually looks like the wave that a number of the models have developing near the Bahamas is the current wave that NHC has at 20%

10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

19 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Well that's interesting. I wonder if NHC will mark it at 8pm. It's got a clear tight circulation going on. 

 

That's a mid-upper low. It's evolving into a stronger ULL due to backside outflow / TUTT off of Delta. Actually, I think you were being facetious here. Anyway... yeah.

I wasn't being facetious. I'm still new to weather stuff and didn't know all that you just explained. 

40 minutes ago, salbers said:

The feature spinning south of Cuba looks interesting - on satellite right now.

Well that's interesting. I wonder if NHC will mark it at 8pm. It's got a clear tight circulation going on. 

Definitely the best looking "eye" of its life so far

6z GEFS continues to show the signal around October 19