cptcatz

Yeah that's quite a monster

This Euro storm appears to be the same one the GFS has in the above post.  Definitely now one to watch.  Looks like it should be coming off Africa sometime this weekend.

Laura really makes a great case showing why we can't trust the models 5+ days out.  These were the GFS and Euro runs from this past Friday, exactly 5 days ago, valid today:

Last two GFS runs show a long tracking MDR storm reaching the western Atlantic as a huge storm.

51 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Backed way off  of that. Sal isnt backing  off though. 12Z gfs shows basically  nothing thru peak while euro is showing  "vigourous waves". Lets see  if the  afternoon euro actually shows a well developed storm in the MDR.

Last night's 00z Euro shows a 1003 mb system in the Caribbean, today's 12z CMC shows a 1006 mb system near the Bahamas, the 12z ICON shows a 999 mb system near the Caribbean, and the 12z GFS shows an open wave.  The global models have been terrible this year with cyclongenesis in the MDR, especially the GFS, so all of these models showing some sort of development of this wave seems like a pretty good indicator that it will develop.  The 12z GFS and the past few Euro runs also show another wave developing behind this next one.  Looks like this one should be pretty hefty coming off Africa.

Don't forget the Euro showed run after run Laura falling apart in the Gulf...

1 hour ago, bigtenfan said:

Still a long way off but it looks like the substantial majority  of the ensembls look to be north of Florida 

 

But Florida is obviously still in play. Who would have thought Texas would be in play with Laura based on this run only 6 days ago?

I'd say Florida is well in play

Euro showing possible Nana approaching the first week of September. 

21 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Great point. Fortunately, Hispaniola will certainly prevent Laura from organizing to the point where it will become as problematic as CXB

I don't know, I've seen some weenies here saying that it could be close...

3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Yeah but the  Iowa derecho wasn’t as damaging as the Indian Ocean tsunami

Yeah but the Indian Ocean tsunami wasn't as damaging as the Chicxulub asteroid (you know, the one that killed the dinosaurs and 3/4 of the rest of the world's plant and animal life)

Frances and Jeanne: "we made landfall in the same spot only three weeks apart!"

Laura and Marco: "hold our beer"

1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

Yup. Nothing really imminent either after these two messes either. The Atlantic doesn't appear to be close to as favorable as some were hyping it up to be. 

Euro and CMC have been showing two waves getting across the Atlantic first week of September and staying pretty low in latitude. Definitely something to watch. 

We got a lemon

Finally some action on the CMC

14 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Why in the world are so many disparaging this season!? "It's not as intense as 2005 or not a lot of intense systems so far." It hasn't reached the seasonal peak yet! Still ten more days until things actually become favorable for more intense storms. So what if it isn't like 2005? 2017 had fewer hurricanes and lower ACE but was costlier and had a comparable death toll. 2005 should never be the bar minimum for an active season or even hyperactive season. After the largest dust plume in 50 years, sinking air masses, considerable shear, and after factoring out some of the less impressive systems,THE SEASON IS STILL IMPRESSIVE. The models aren't infallible especially this far out and this season's model performance have not been impressive.  Sure it's possible that the shear doesn't go down and the dry air continues for the rest of the year but nothing has come to suggest that.

I think it's a combination of:

- The forecasts calling for a hyperactive season

- People are stuck at home bored because of this whole pandemic thing so we are trying to find any kind of excitement we can find

- We are expecting big things because it's 2020

Speaking for myself, this has been the most boring summer of my life. My only excitement every day is waiting for the next model run. 

3 minutes ago, Hc7 said:

That seem unlikely with the MJO shifting and conditions becoming near perfect in a week or so, no? I think we’d be verrrry lucky if the favorable conditions coming up only increase an already extremely active season, but Not the intensity. 

Just seems for the past two months they've been saying "just wait, in two weeks it's really gonna pick up"

What a weak storm to break Katrina's record. Watch we get to the Greek letters by mid September with nothing stronger than a cat 1...

What are the chances it can pull a Jeanne?

42 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Maybe it’s because August 10th feels like the middle of summer, and summer feels like hurricanes, while September is when school starts again, its maybe cooler (good luck with that) and it doesn’t feel like summer therefor, it feels less like peak season...

Is that how it is every year? I feel like this year is different because this summer sucked, no one traveled, no one was really able to do anything fun, everyone just stayed home doing nothing, so we're all just here waiting for some action. 

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

It's gonna pop. People on different message boards are saying "things look quiet". Trust me, just wait.

This is one of the most favorable patterns of shear, sea surface temperatures, and MJO I've ever seen for late August through September. It's gonna blow.

So are the models just that bad this year?  The GFS now goes out to August 27 and the Euro/CMC go out to August 21, all showing absolutely nothing.  Do you think it blows before those dates or after?

From what I read, shear has decreased significantly and the only limiting factor now is dry air.

06z back with the storm. 

20 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

The long-range GFS has now consistently shown a significant hurricane in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the 300+ hrs range for several runs now. 

9 consecutive runs now, all at the same time period.  That would be quite a fail if it doesn't verify.  

If that forecast verifies it's gonna be a LONG next three months!

There's nothing more fantasyland than GFS at 384 hours, however...

1) It's been showing Gulf action now for four runs in a row at this timeframe

2) The GFS has been pretty quiet this year with fantasy storms. and most importantly...

3) It's 2020