cptcatz

27 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just thinking, I remember a decade ago Dr. Neil Frank said when he was head of the NHC, they were less likely to name destined to name short lived mid latitude barely tropical systems like Odette or Teresa.  (10 plus years ago, obviously he didn't mention Odette or Teresa by name)  1933, with satellites, might have exceeded 2005.  But even knocking a few ugly storms off the last few years, it is getting more active.

 

3 of the 4 most active seasons of the last 100 years since 2005, something is happening.  Probably linked to climate warming, but the polar regions should be warming faster than the tropics, from everything I read, and it can't all be warmer SSTs.  And why is the Pacific not responding the same way?

It's cyclical and the quiet pacific shows that. The early 2010s were quiet, 2017 to present is active. In a few years it will get quiet again. The number of cat 5's and strong cat 4's is interesting though and seems to be increasing. 

Why are the 12z runs initializing such a weak storm? Euro is at 993, CMC is at 999, and GFS is at 971. We have recon data from last night proving the pressure is in the 940s and it obviously hasn't weakened. What gives? And could that affect the rest of the model run?

I have a feeling south Florida's luck is going to quickly run out...

Looks like over the past few hours it's been moving due west with even a possible wobble to the south. Wonder how long it will keep that up. 

Impressive 151 knot winds 447 meters up

5pm: 140 mph, 943 mb

It'll be interesting to see how good the NHC is at estimating wind and pressure based on satellite data as recon will give us the real numbers within an hour.

After Sam, it looks like there will be two areas to watch over the next couple weeks.  Most models show the next wave (currently at 50% by NHC) curving OTS but a number of ensemble members have it continuing west maybe into the Caribbean/Antilles.  Then the GFS/GEFS has been hinting at a CAG type system forming in the Caribbean, maybe something similar to a Wilma/Matthew/Michael track which climo would favor.  Looks like we will likely hit the next list of names...

Anyone know when recon plans to fly in?

Looks like the only land at risk is Bermuda. I'd watch that next wave to see if it can sneak into the Caribbean. 

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

500mb is just all wrong for a US landfall. Theres a trough where you'd want a ridge and a ridge where'd you want a trough. So much has to change for it to happen. I'd put it at less than 10 percent...and that might be generous. 

Exactly. Like a landfall is definitely gonna happen as long as everything that every model plays out in the exact opposite way they are forecasting. I've only been tracking weather for a handful of years. Has there been another time recently when the models would be this wrong?

I don't think enough wishcasting will get this to the east coast.  Only the weakest tracks get it close and seeing how it's already strengthening and with the NHC forecasting a major, seems to be a pretty sure thing it will curve out.

Majority of the 06z EPS members still keeping it quite low...

The last three GFS runs all show this system that looks like it breaks off of Sam as it passes the Bahamas, which then moves west over Florida, intensifies in the gulf, then moves back east over Florida again. The 00z run drops it down to 978 mb. 

Looks like that's that for this one.  Models showing yet another wave developing behind this one though...

18z GFS is trending significantly south and west...

Getting some Irma vibes here...

GEFS 06z compared to 12z...

The bulk of the 06z Euro ensembles are still keeping it southward on a track into the islands.  Euro still seems to be the outlier on the southern track though.  Euro also seems to not have been doing well with these MDR storms prior to development.

CMC is still showing 95L developing near the Bahamas. If it can somehow find low shear in that area then it's still on the table. Still over a week out so lots could change. 

18 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm surprised at the lack of Cape Verde hurricanes. We get one a year, but I recall many over and over back in the 1990s. 

I think it's time to strip the central Atlantic of the MDR name and give it to the western Caribbean/southern Gulf.  That's the new Main Development Region.

GEFS now showing a lot of members bringing into the Caribbean or just north of the islands. WAY too early to call this a fish storm. 

I think the worst case scenario would be for it to stay weak through the Atlantic which means it treks due west and then gets to the Bahamas/Florida Straits area where it then rapidly intensifies.  Something along the lines of Dorian, Andrew, or 1935 Labor Day...

48 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Well this season may not be playing out exactly like us weenies had anticipated, but just like last season, just about everything is making landfall, most of it in the CONUS.

It'll be interesting to see how the back half compares to last season.  Last season had FIVE major hurricanes form AFTER October 1, three of them making landfall as a major, and a fourth making landfall just shy of a major.  That would be crazy active for an entire season, let alone just October and November.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing really interesting at all on the models going forward. We all know that can change in a heartbeat.

Yeah I wouldn't give up on 95L. The models showing a weak storm now may be bad in the long term. Instead of intensifying in the eastern Atlantic and turning out to sea, the weak wave may now move towards the Caribbean or Bahamas. The Bahamas/Florida Straits area has a long history of blowing up storms very quickly...

21 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I’ve been lurking here since 2017 and I remember him doing this even then, 3 years before I even made an account…

He’s obviously a weather enthusiast because you wouldn’t be on this site otherwise, but it became pretty obvious he is a troll after a while and to be honest, I really don’t get why someone would troll a bunch of like minded people. Especially in smaller community like this one

Yeah go back and look at the 2017 thread. He said Harvey was a bust after it degenerated into an open wave and then said the rest of the season was going to be inactive...