cptcatz

29 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just like clockwork a new storm was just named with U.S impacts expected. 

Not to mention with the usually bearish NHC forecasting 65mph which means we could easily see a hurricane landfall as long as the center stays east.

4 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Yet the impression is the season is slow.

No it's not. Not sure why you have that feeling. We had a long tracking Elsa in early July, a typical lull in later July, and then pretty much non stop activity since early August including three majors and two landfalling majors. How much more could you ask for by the season midpoint?

Looks like Euro wants to recurve this wave

On 8/31/2021 at 1:18 PM, ldub23 said:

Just delayed. Sept  looks to be rather slow even with a strong recurver.

On 9/1/2021 at 9:27 AM, ldub23 said:

Cool. Except for  a recurver to nowhere sept  is quite dead  on the  models. Unless a strong high builds  into the  NW ATL and stays  locked the season is  pretty  much over.

On 9/1/2021 at 9:33 AM, ldub23 said:

Just delayed a  month. Larry  is about  it and  i dont really  care about recurvers, sort  of  like mid atlantic snow  lovers  dont care about  blizzards  in Manitoba.

On 9/2/2021 at 7:07 AM, ldub23 said:

JB jumps  on the dead sept  train. I didnt think it would  happen when the consensus was the east  coast was at risk. Just the  opposite  pattern set  up. Either a recurve  or  just too hostile for  anything. My guess is the negative  NAO will reverse  just  in time for  winter  however.

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi·1hJuly 27 made forecastfor hyper August in tropics. I think we can agree it had merit. Well now some good news!  Opposite pattern setting up so September much less active relative to averages as far impact,  Does not mean nothing at all, but relative to averages less than Aug

On 9/3/2021 at 3:39 PM, ldub23 said:

The Euro and GFS seem to disagree with you. Atlantic  barren at  peak season.

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lighting up like a Xmas tree

Meh. Not the greatest signal for peak season...

10 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Question all here:  Does a Hurricane or Tropical storm lose its name once it is downgraded to a depression and/or extra tropical cyclone?  If so, does NOAA have this documented somewhere?  This is an insurance related question.  TIA

No.  Hence the Sandy impacts in the northeast were attributed to Sandy and the Ida impacts will be attributed to Ida.

About time we get a good GFS fantasycane...

Interesting development of 91L. The eastern convection from yesterday has fizzled but new broad convection has popped up on the western side and just recently it looks like more is bubbling up right in the center. If this can tighten into a core it would have quite a bit of Gulf to work with before Florida...

48 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Interesting observation. I'll be watching much more closely...

The forecast has definitely shifted east since I last looked and Tampa Bay is right on the edge of the yellow blob.

Regardless, looking at where the convection is right now, you may get some nice storms where it ends up going. 

91L is firing off some decent convection and it looks way more south/east than where NHC is showing it.   Florida might need to watch this. 

41 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS and EURO still say i am right. Horrid  conditions.

GFS and Euro are trash in the long term. How do you still base your opinion on their 10-15 day forecast? It makes you look like an idiot after you're wrong time after time. 

4 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

What is the point of logging on to this website just to troll 

It's weird. Like Twitter politics trolling is understandable but like this guy obviously has an interest in weather but still chooses to use his time to come to a weather forum and troll a relatively small group of people. Kinda sad to me, but whatever floats his boat.

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You were right the first time. I do not have the time currently to list the all the reasons why. A quick answer would be to compare the damage costs from Floyd to those from Sandy. Floyd caused similar fresh water flooding to Ida. 

Floyd caused river/stream flooding but I don't believe it caused the kind of urban flash flooding in upland areas like that occurred last night. I lived in Essex County during Floyd in a relatively low lying house with a basement. We didn't get any water intrusion during Floyd. I still have a lot of friends in NJ and they all had flooding around their houses last night like never before. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong but we'll see when the numbers start coming out. 

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn’t as bad as Sandy but it does look catastrophic in some areas. The problem as always is flooding here. NYC is surrounded by water on 3 sides and we have so much underground infrastructure that floods in a situation like this. Tragically my thought that our death toll might end up higher than the South’s from Ida looks like will verify. 

Not sure how this doesn't match or exceed Sandy. It looks like all the coastal areas that flooded in Sandy flooded here too, as well as the widespread inland areas that flooded last night that were pretty much unscathed in Sandy. Flooding rains aren't as exciting to the media as a landfalling hurricane-equivalent superstorm, but I have a feeling when the insurance claims are all in, this will be comparable or exceed the Sandy costs. 

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not even close

I wouldn't be so sure about that. The Sandy impacts were mainly from coastal flooding with moderate wind impacts throughout the rest of the region. Inland area impacts were limited to widespread power outages from falling tree limbs and transformer blowouts. The bulk of the costly impacts were from the surge flooding along the coasts, flooding all the tunnels, basements, utility rooms, etc. in the coastal areas.

In contrast, last night's flooding looked to include all the coastal areas that Sandy flooded, IN ADDITION to incredible widespread inland flooding throughout the rest of the highly densely populated metropolitan region. Flooding insurance claims are FAR more expensive than moderate wind damage and there are going to be a ton of inland houses and office buildings waking up to feet of water in their basements this morning. Once people start assessing the damage today, this is gonna turn ugly and astronomically expensive. 

This could be a worse disaster for the NYC metro region than Sandy was. The videos of the flooding is just mind boggling. 

3 minutes ago, gmendevils8204 said:

That area just gets ravaged. So sad. 46 is shut down now in Little Falls.

I remember seeing the Willowbrook Mall completely surrounded by water after Irene. Wonder what it looks like now. 

Seeing the catastrophic flooding happening in New Jersey, NYC, and now moving into Long Island, I wouldn't be surprised if the flooding costs in the northeast exceed the wind/surge costs in Louisiana. Reminds me a lot of Floyd.

5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Just delayed. Sept  looks to be rather slow even with a strong recurver.

Saving this post to come back to it in a month from now

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

My brother lives in Lake Worth, FL and was there for Dorian. It's insane (lucky) how he had some gusty showers pretty much but 100 or so miles east over Grand Bahama Island was annihilated. The PBI to MIA stretch is incredibly overdue for a bad one and the check will come due soon. Once north of NC hurricanes completely change to much more broad impacts. The worst of Sandy was actually 100 miles N of the center. 

I live in Boca Raton which is just a handful of miles from Lake Worth. A lot of this discussion has to do with the size and structure of the storm. Dorian was very small. We got by with barely anything from dorian. However we got hammered my Irma whose eye was further away from us than Dorians. Irma's eye was over 100 miles away and we had widespread power outages and many trees and minor damage. Every storm is different. 

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Hard to boil water without  power.

Not an ideal way to boil water but anyone prepping for a hurricane strike should have a propane-fueled grill and ample propane. 

4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

They do I’ve been reading up on them, but no guarantee they work properly.

If whoever manages the pumps didn't say a couple days ago "of there's a hurricane coming, maybe we should test the generators to make sure properly", then they should be fired.

16 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I was expecting to see many leveled buildings. Instead I saw 3 roofs blown off, leaning utility poles, and not much else. Maybe it's just solid American construction ha.

Concrete buildings simply won't be leveled in a hurricane. I'm sure there will be many many wood buildings that are being leveled that we'll see in the aftermath. 1) people's whose homes/businesses that are being leveled probably don't care to share videos of it on Twitter, and 2) the chasers are generally smart enough to be in areas of concrete buildings rather than wood buildings. 

Definitely moving due north now.  Houma might dodge the eye wall.

Is it too early to start looking ahead at the models? CMC for a week from Tuesday