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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    I don't know something seems fishy to me about these model runs. Looking at how it looks on satellite right now, are we really supposed to believe it will look like this on Monday morning?
  2. cptcatz
    Best looking invest I've seen in a while. This thing could already be a tropical cyclone.
  3. cptcatz
    Yep, modeling totally blew the initial intensity forecast...
  4. cptcatz
    Michael?
  5. cptcatz
    Ian had the biggest lead up since Irma. Go check out the Ian thread again... we were discussing a major hurricane in the Gulf while it was still an invest over a week before landfall.
  6. cptcatz
    The convection is quite impressive and much further east than models had been showing. Watching these trends closely here in south Florida.
  7. cptcatz
    Recon and visual satellite both showing the center is a full 2 degrees west of where NHC has it...
  8. cptcatz
    Interesting little shift west on the 18z EPS...
  9. cptcatz
    90L is looking nice this morning. Will be interesting to see how far west it tracks. I feel like models don't have a good handle on it.
  10. cptcatz
    Quite a few of the GFS runs have been showing a CAG like storm forming in the western Caribbean. CMC has been showing it a lot too and now EPS is hinting it at. Where it goes from there is a toss up but the fact that it forms on many models is what's important.
  11. cptcatz
    Anyone know if recon will be flying into it?
  12. cptcatz
    12z GFS, CMC, and Euro are basically telling us we have no idea what's gonna happen. Jeez can we get some model consistency here please?
  13. cptcatz
    18z EPS still showing four distinct clusters within 144 hours
  14. cptcatz
    Nice post as right after that the 12z EPS blew up. We'll see if it sticks https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1687931125040070656
  15. cptcatz
    Structure looks nice but all models have it go poof as soon as it enters the Caribbean. If the NHC is right and it maintains at a 75-80 mph hurricane through the Caribbean, they would get mad respect.
  16. cptcatz
    This system in the western Caribbean is what the GFS has been saying hits Florida as a hurricane for the last 2 weeks. It certainly looks impressive right now. It'll be interesting to watch in real time.
  17. cptcatz
    That's quite a look for June 11. This is gonna be an interesting season...
  18. cptcatz
    1) Sandy made landfall at 945 mb 2) Sandy was 1,100 miles wide 3) Sandy pushed the surge into New York Bay which is one of the largest bays in the world and naturally incredibly surge prone. There is nothing like that around where Nicole is going. To sum it up, this is nothing like Sandy.
  19. cptcatz
    Looks like it's trying to pop some convection on the western eyewall. Needs it to stick if it's gonna intensify some more.
  20. cptcatz
    Wow that recon pass really just ramped things up quick. On the verge of being a hurricane now.
  21. cptcatz
    Anyone know when the next low level recon is?
  22. cptcatz
    Someone tell me if I'm crazy but I'm seeing the LLC now moving just EAST of due south...
  23. cptcatz
    The last few frames of satellite looks like the center is moving due south and convection is trying to pop right there.
  24. cptcatz
    It's going to be a top heavy storm with all the bad weather to the north. Regardless of what happens Orlando is gonna get some nasty weather. Canceling your trip depends on what you plan on doing there.
  25. cptcatz
    06Z GFS shows landfall in Boca Raton (where I live) at 984mb vs Euro shows landfall in West Palm Beach at 998mb. If you split the difference you get landfall in Boynton Beach at 991mb.
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