JustinRP37

This is definitely not true. Upton does not go model to model. These are literally people who have devoted their life to the study of meteorology. No offense but they are not just about weather enthusiasts. They get slammed when they are conservative and they get slammed when they ‘hype’. It really is a thankless job. Further when people slam models they really do not understand the complexity of the models. I have a PhD in the sciences and what these models do and the people that build them simply amaze me. There is some complex calculus that goes into these models not to mention all the programming.

Yeah that is the other part of it. With people going on about how much they hate snow, I have to remind them that many people rely on snow for either supplemental income or their whole income. Think of the ski areas in southern NY, New England, and what not. Then all the crews that do supplemental work for winter recreation. Landscapers often need the snow for increased revenue in the 'off-season'. What part of Vermont do you go to? We like to head up to Bomoseen and then ski at Killington. Killington is always insane with the snow, even on years where we get nothing. I'd even go so far as to say early April can be a strong winter month there. Combine that with their massive snow making capabilities and you never have to worry about weather.

https://www.axios.com/earths-5-warmest-years-have-occurred-since-2014-cc42f4bb-dbc6-40b7-b478-0ce942fab2d0.html The 5 warmest years have all been 2014 and we still got some amazing storms. Increased temperature = increase moisture in the atmosphere.

I'm not disagreeing about next week. If we can get some good snow in here then good. What I am pointing out is people saying well what about last year? I personally think late March and April snow is rubbing it in our faces of what could have been. That being said, October 31st, 2011, was still the craziest snowstorm I have ever lived through. And I don't think people are throwing in the towel yet on this season, but if next week does not pan out, then yes that ledge will be full.

Sure it can snow in late March and early April, but does that really do anything? Do you enjoy seeing snow for a few hours in spring? Honestly the reason people are throwing in the towel is because for most people merely having a snow storm isn’t enough. We want the snow to last. Enjoy real winter. Not 6 inches of snow fell overnight and it is gone by dinner time. Next week is the middle of February. Whether you want to believe it or not, the sun is heading towards the Tropic of Cancer. The sun will be higher and higher in the sky. We are now leaving our solar minimum for the year. Yes it can snow all the way to the beginning of May, but spring snow is never the same as January and early February true winter snow.

People do have PTSD this winter because we have “been in the game” many times this winter only for it to be rain.

No doubt cool weather is great. Nothing like the 50s and 60s with full sunshine. It's the wetness I don't like. That's why I love snow so much. You can go out in it and enjoy it without getting soaked. Go for a run in the rain and mist and it is gross.

First person I have met that enjoys mud season. What is special about wet springs? Why not enjoy the sunshine?

Exactly. I often get people asking why have we seen more substantial snowstorms if the nearby ocean is warm. I tell the the same thing, we got a lot of fuel that feeds the moisture into the system and throws it back to the coast. That is one reason I am holding out hope that we can at least approach normal snowfall levels. If we can get to above normal snowfall this year and next, then the 2010s will be the only decade on record with only 1 below average snowfall season. It is pretty spectacular actually. We just pretty much expect a lot of snow at this point.

Very cool article! Shows just what happens when you get some serious upwelling. We saw that a few times this summer too when got some upwelling and temps crashed.

No they are not. It is the sea surface temperature (2m) anomaly based on the mean from 1981 to 2005. That is the standard used in oceanic studies at the time. No clue why it is different than the time period we use for air temperature normals. I have a background in aquatic studies, so I know this stuff. The sea surface is what affects our weather, which is what these maps are showing. Gain depth in water and you rapidly cool. World-wide ocean temp below 1000 meters is right around 4C. The thermocline in a given area does not change much. The sea surface is what varies throughout the year. This is actually one of the coolest properties of water, and hence why northern lakes can upwell twice a year. Water is most dense at 4C, after which it becomes less dense as it crystallizes into ice. Warmer than 4C and it becomes less dense as well. Hence why our warm water floats on the colder water in the summer.

This is from today though. The waters east and north are normal to above normal. The only below normal sea surface temps are in the mid-Atlantic right up against the coast. However, even average water temps really can deliver those nasty BDCF days. Hopefully though they won’t last as the gloomy days really get to me.

Sea surface temps are not that below normal up and down the east coast. They have been fairly above average until the arctic blast.I

We don’t believe it yet because if we trusted LR guidance this year vertbatim we should have had tons of snow already. Once we actually see things getting closer than day 10-15, the we can start talking about it. There are still many mixed signals, so anyone claiming an end to winter or the appearance of a super snowy pattern is just showing their bias. We cannot allow our personal biases guide our analysis. You cannot discount what you don’t ‘agree’ with. The pattern will be colder but as we just saw that might not translate to snowy for our area. We’ll see. I’m hopeful but too many mixed signals still.

Permethrin is the best I'd say for tick prevention. the lone star tick is an active host seeker, unlike the blacklegged tick (aka deer tick). But yes the ticks will be out whenever we are not having typical winter weather. Normally this time of year every night should be below freezing or right around it, thus keeping the ticks down. However, the deep freeze without snow cover is really detrimental to ticks, so maybe we can get the polar vortex here!

Posted this in NYC metro but still applies to SNE right now: Be aware, if you are hiking outside and there is and has been bare ground for awhile, then ticks are a risk. Every year we get a huge thaw like this I get the question “this can’t possibly be a tick can it?”. Yes it sure can be a tick! Anytime we are above 40 degrees for a prolonged period you can see adult ticks. Luckily, these are the largest life stage so they are easy to find before they have a chance to transmit Lyme. Keep in mind many areas across the region now have the Asian longhorned tick. We are still learning more and more about these guys, so if you see any ticks that you don’t recognize, feel free to message me, especially if you are in the Yonkers area.

Be aware, if you are hiking outside and there is and has been bare ground for awhile, then ticks are a risk. Every year we get a huge thaw like this I get the question “this can’t possibly be a tick can it?”. Yes it sure can be a tick! Anytime we are above 40 degrees for a prolonged period you can see adult ticks. Luckily, these are the largest life stage so they are easy to find before they have a chance to transmit Lyme. Keep in mind many areas across the region now have the Asian longhorned tick. We are still learning more and more about these guys, so if you see any ticks that you don’t recognize, feel free to message me, especially if you are in the Yonkers area.

But what about that tweet from Jason Furtado? The thing is I do see us getting snow but anyone saying guidance will be spot on after what we have been through this winter, I say give pause and not make definitives. At this point I’m unwilling to go much beyond a 5 day. We saw how drastically even the MJO forecast has been. What’s to say that won’t be the case again in a few days. I’m not trying to play Devil’s advocate here.

So what was it when we all thought mid January would be snowy for the coast or that this week was going to be cold up until a few days ago?

Unfortunately you can't even escape inside. So many buildings still have the heat on like it is 10 degrees outside. It was brutal in my office this morning.

I'm going to hope that is deice. I mean I typically drop a deuce in the morning, but usually the frost plays no roll in my deucing ability. I have heard though that rapid pressure drops can cause pregnant women to go into lab. Where do you typically fly to or everywhere?

I mean in relation to seasonal forecasts. If you look back when real money started to be able to be generated online, it was around that time that suddenly every season became historic. "Flooding spring rains" or "historic tornadoes" etc. I just see much more hysteria on long range seasonal forecasting. But believe it or not, not everyone does realize click online = money. A lot actually don't understand that.

See that is the number one thing I believe that drives these predictions in September and October of historic cold and historic snows. Many people don't realize this, but clicks = money. Nobody is going to read a headline that says "Mild winter and below average snowfall in the east". However, they will click if they see "Brutal cold and misery to control winter in the east". With that being said, we have been having a lot of historic snows of late. However, if you do look at temperatures they tell a different story overall. Winter 2014-2015 though was still about as end to end as we will get.

What bothers me the most is the constant, 'well everything is on track'. My forecast for much above normals snowfall is right on target. Grr. I think I'll be eating crow when I called for 100-115% of average snowfall this year. I think February is going to shape up about +1.5 to +2.5F overall. That would mean DJF ends just above average. We'll see. I am not seeing anything particularly sustaining of a massively snowy period. This would be historic and unprecedented at this point based on where we are in the season and what we have already received. If I was betting on that happening now, that would not be a safe bet. We would basically need a 6-12 inch snowstorm roughly every week into the beginning of March.

Exactly! One would think that with the month finish just about average for temperature for the month, yet we had two truly historic cold blasts, that would show you really how mild we have been overall. I cannot remember a winter month with two major arctic outbreaks that did not finish the below average for temperatures.