JustinRP37

You say nobody knows then attack me saying lot’s of questions and nobody knows and neither do I. Sure we don’t know what the exact temperature was 1,000,000 years ago at X location, but we can give you a fairly accurate range of what it was. I have dedicated my life thus far to science. I have worked hard to try and understand the natural world. I have studied climate modeling, looked at historical climates and patterns. Since we are from the tri-state area, I’d offer to meet you and introduce you to some of the hard working researchers that are working hard to not only to look into the past but also peek into the future. I have also given others access to scientific journals (anyone can reach out to me if they want something). Can I ask you though, what is so wrong about asking for cleaner air and water? Look up the Cuyahoga River fire of 1969 or what happened with DDT.

Why does having a discussion about this upset you so much and make you angry towards good people on this board? Nobody is attacking you. And we do have estimates of past climate. We know the earth has been warmer and colder in the past but the changes were always over thousands of years. Not a few hundred.

Actually we can answer that. The planet has been mainly a water planet at times in the past. Look at Arizona. Used to be deep under the sea. We know we have been through a lot. This isn’t anyone saying we have never. Just because humans were around doesn’t mean it wasn’t important or that we don’t know about it. Geology tells us a lot. But guess what, we can see what is coming based on current trends. Why do you think the military is spending billions on this? It isn’t a belief system. It is simply preparing for the future. Real question: how do you think we know where to look for oil and gas versus coal? Hint it has to do a lot with past hydrology.

Before calling sea level rise a lie, how about we look at some facts? You go on about humans not being able to comprehend millions of years, but this far the oceans have risen in this area by about 9 inches since 1950. That level of change wouldn’t be perceptible to the naked eye. But why don’t we go look at parts of the Jersey shore that now regularly flood with the larger tides? Why don’t we look at the fact that parts of the Florida Keys also food during normal high tides when they didn’t before. Again, as someone studying this stuff I’m not paid to make up data. We simple look at numbers.

“Models have been terrible.” “Did you X model has snow in 6-10 days!” 5 days later as everything shows rain and 40s: “I’ll wait until the storm is within 24 hours to get excited.” One hour later “did you see a coastal on the model for 8 days from now?” Remember there is more to a forecast than looking at models. Teleconnections don’t look great at all, but we’ll see. I won’t be excited until literally 36 hours out for any threat this year.

Thanks just wish there was some notification or something so I don’t think I’m going crazy. It’s tough with a 16 month old even making sure I leave the house with pants some mornings.

Just wondering, was there something I said in my comment that spurred it to being delete in a banter thread? I thought it was optimistic.

Hyperbole much? Outside of JB nobody was seriously saying NYC was becoming the new Buffalo. We had a few big years of snow, and the majority of the big winters had sustained positive temperature departures. Winter is our fastest warming season even with the increase in snowfall we saw for much of the past two decades, something I have studied first hand for my tick work. And climate models have been mostly accurate for our region in regards to increasing humidity, precipitation, and temperature. With that models also point out an increase in snow until the warming overwhelms.

I honestly think people use analogs way too much. Back in October NOAA released this: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north They honestly nailed this winter back in the beginning of October for us, but notice they bombed for Alaska. But that didn't stop JB and Twitter WX from saying EPIC COLD AND SNOW!! Perhaps we should all do what NOAA does: "NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are favored to change. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are expected."

They were actually pretty spot on this year though. Not one was sustained on showing cold and snowy, but we all had our reasons. I'm doing a lot of head scratching and I think I allowed myself to think that maybe they weren't seeing something right.

Social media I feel has been awful for meteorology as a whole. You get these very influential Twitter wx guys that hammer, hammer, and hammer what people want to see and hear. Let's face it even the people that absolutely HATE snow will click on a headline that says "Epic cold and snow this winter" versus a headline that says "Warmer and snowless winter coming up". These Twitter stars know this and have monetized it quite well. Some people are catching on, but there is always that one model run 295 hours out that shows an amazing pattern. I am happy, at least for the time being, that we have dried out and are stringing together sunny days. I feel like that is something that hasn't happened for a long time. But alas the thing many people forget is that years like this do hurt families that rely on the snow, from landscapers who plow, to people the work and support the skiing industry, to road crews that bank on some extra OT money.

It is too soon to forecast our summer but looking at the southern hemisphere summer, our current positive sea surface anomalies, a new record low arctic sea ice season already being forecast, and how influential the west Atlantic ridge continues to be it would not surprise me if this summer wound up +1 to +3 at the point.

Yeah I’ve made that argument before about warm and snowy. It seems that as long as there is snow the ACATT crew is happy which puzzles me. Snow cover is an important metric many glance over. Especially ecologically speaking.

Honestly, it doesn't surprise me but I don't condone death threats. People just need to tune out many of the long-range meteorologists that claim every winter will be cold and snowy. It sold for many years and since 2000 was almost always more right than wrong (at least for the snowy part). But I'm tired of people giving JB credibility. Go look at his commentary. It is ALWAYS about why it will be cold. It is his political statement, which is not backed up my science. Even the snowy places this year are now 'cold' it's just their climatology allows for snow this time of year even when warmer than average. An excellent scientist, whether they are a researcher, meteorologist, or even a medical doctor, does not allow 'beliefs' to enter into their thoughts. They look at data and present the data. Now we can debate how many people actually do that, but that is for a different thread. This season is frustrating, but there have been more than a few meteorologists that have called for a lackluster winter, so I think we should go out and appreciate that.

Eh I’ve thought about staying here but based on cost of living even making less, lifestyle is far better elsewhere. See what the earliest you can leave and collect some pension. But I just really hate our springs and cost of living. My goal is New England, upstate, or south. Right now south is winning, especially since we do travel a lot.

Using the same logic, they finished the season well below average for runs and hits for the league even with a few spurts. Same thing for this winter, will likely end up below average based on statistics. another negative is baseball is 162 games long whereas our snow season is less than 90 days.

We have had it before. Just stinks this will hopefully be my last in this area. We will see

I normally don’t give our weenie emojis, but if I could give out three, this statement would get multiple weenies.

This thread really blew up for a so so threat still days away and people be digging in like it is Thursday and we are right on the line...

We have just under 4 prime winter weeks left for the immediate metro-area. Let that sink in. Yes we can get snow, but the lack of 'winter' feel around here has been painful, right up there with 2011-2012.

The most shocking to me is how many days we have had where even the LOW did not go below freezing this month. It is quite shocking. I had to laugh at my wife today when she said it was cold this morning at 38 degrees when we went outside. I said we should be below freezing just about every morning this time of year.

The anomalies are warm except for Alaska. Yes AN in Canada is still BN for us but to get a BN stretch here there needs to be normal to below normal in Canada where our cold comes from. Look at the stats for Europe and Russia for this year. Then look at ours. This is highly unusual. Can it change? Sure but arctic sea ice is still well below normal for the time of year. I wouldn’t bet on any sustained cold weather this year, all I am saying. No hyperbole. Until models or actual data start showing normal to BN temperatures don’t call it hyperbole because the only hyperbole right now is saying that we will have a blockbuster February for snow. If we do reach or exceed our average for snowfall this year it will be because of one massive storm that likely melts within a week. I hope we can salvage that much. That is still on the table.

What is even more insane is the lack of cold air in Canada, Europe, AND Russia. Very seldom do we see this, at least not in my memory. It is shocking to me when people say cold air will be around? Where? Even in Canada it is much above normal. So even if that gets pushed here, it might bring us to normal. I honestly do not see February being below average so far. It just seems like the same people pushing the narrative. I really hope I am wrong. Hopefully we can get some cold nights so resorts can blow snow.

If you blindfolded me and took me outside today I would say it is mid April outside. Birds chirping on campus and I feel hot in my winter jacket.