JustinRP37

Social media I feel has been awful for meteorology as a whole. You get these very influential Twitter wx guys that hammer, hammer, and hammer what people want to see and hear. Let's face it even the people that absolutely HATE snow will click on a headline that says "Epic cold and snow this winter" versus a headline that says "Warmer and snowless winter coming up". These Twitter stars know this and have monetized it quite well. Some people are catching on, but there is always that one model run 295 hours out that shows an amazing pattern. I am happy, at least for the time being, that we have dried out and are stringing together sunny days. I feel like that is something that hasn't happened for a long time. But alas the thing many people forget is that years like this do hurt families that rely on the snow, from landscapers who plow, to people the work and support the skiing industry, to road crews that bank on some extra OT money.

It is too soon to forecast our summer but looking at the southern hemisphere summer, our current positive sea surface anomalies, a new record low arctic sea ice season already being forecast, and how influential the west Atlantic ridge continues to be it would not surprise me if this summer wound up +1 to +3 at the point.

Yeah I’ve made that argument before about warm and snowy. It seems that as long as there is snow the ACATT crew is happy which puzzles me. Snow cover is an important metric many glance over. Especially ecologically speaking.

Honestly, it doesn't surprise me but I don't condone death threats. People just need to tune out many of the long-range meteorologists that claim every winter will be cold and snowy. It sold for many years and since 2000 was almost always more right than wrong (at least for the snowy part). But I'm tired of people giving JB credibility. Go look at his commentary. It is ALWAYS about why it will be cold. It is his political statement, which is not backed up my science. Even the snowy places this year are now 'cold' it's just their climatology allows for snow this time of year even when warmer than average. An excellent scientist, whether they are a researcher, meteorologist, or even a medical doctor, does not allow 'beliefs' to enter into their thoughts. They look at data and present the data. Now we can debate how many people actually do that, but that is for a different thread. This season is frustrating, but there have been more than a few meteorologists that have called for a lackluster winter, so I think we should go out and appreciate that.

Eh I’ve thought about staying here but based on cost of living even making less, lifestyle is far better elsewhere. See what the earliest you can leave and collect some pension. But I just really hate our springs and cost of living. My goal is New England, upstate, or south. Right now south is winning, especially since we do travel a lot.

Using the same logic, they finished the season well below average for runs and hits for the league even with a few spurts. Same thing for this winter, will likely end up below average based on statistics. another negative is baseball is 162 games long whereas our snow season is less than 90 days.

We have had it before. Just stinks this will hopefully be my last in this area. We will see

I normally don’t give our weenie emojis, but if I could give out three, this statement would get multiple weenies.

This thread really blew up for a so so threat still days away and people be digging in like it is Thursday and we are right on the line...

We have just under 4 prime winter weeks left for the immediate metro-area. Let that sink in. Yes we can get snow, but the lack of 'winter' feel around here has been painful, right up there with 2011-2012.

The most shocking to me is how many days we have had where even the LOW did not go below freezing this month. It is quite shocking. I had to laugh at my wife today when she said it was cold this morning at 38 degrees when we went outside. I said we should be below freezing just about every morning this time of year.

The anomalies are warm except for Alaska. Yes AN in Canada is still BN for us but to get a BN stretch here there needs to be normal to below normal in Canada where our cold comes from. Look at the stats for Europe and Russia for this year. Then look at ours. This is highly unusual. Can it change? Sure but arctic sea ice is still well below normal for the time of year. I wouldn’t bet on any sustained cold weather this year, all I am saying. No hyperbole. Until models or actual data start showing normal to BN temperatures don’t call it hyperbole because the only hyperbole right now is saying that we will have a blockbuster February for snow. If we do reach or exceed our average for snowfall this year it will be because of one massive storm that likely melts within a week. I hope we can salvage that much. That is still on the table.

What is even more insane is the lack of cold air in Canada, Europe, AND Russia. Very seldom do we see this, at least not in my memory. It is shocking to me when people say cold air will be around? Where? Even in Canada it is much above normal. So even if that gets pushed here, it might bring us to normal. I honestly do not see February being below average so far. It just seems like the same people pushing the narrative. I really hope I am wrong. Hopefully we can get some cold nights so resorts can blow snow.

If you blindfolded me and took me outside today I would say it is mid April outside. Birds chirping on campus and I feel hot in my winter jacket.

But can you build a saltman?? We can build saltmen down here! And when we are done with the saltmen we can salt rim our glasses. It is great having salt delivery from the town. (Yes this is sarcasm as I am pretty sure my salt accumulation and snow accumulation are similar this year).

I can't say it enough, what the same forecasters banked on for much of the past decade + is we have been AN, mostly much AN for snowfall. It is a conformational bias, not that they are actually skilled with their LR forecasts. Go look at JB and see how many of his temperature forecasts actually verified? The majority of the time he was always cold and BN temperatures for winter as a whole. However, his snowfall forecasts verified even in warm winters because 1 or 2 big storms would bring us AN for snow. There were several pro-mets calling for BN to N snowfall this year, they just typically are ignored by social media and winter weather enthusiasts because we all love to hear about lots of snow. Problem was say AN snow year in and year out, you were mostly correct since 2000, but not always for the right reasons. There are many others that do the same. Again more snow, more cold = more likes and shares = more revenue.

You don’t have to tell me that it’s statistics. But look at the stats for winters with stats similar to where we are now. I don’t like using analogs but to say everything is going fine is like saying you can fight your own house fire when it has spread to half the house. Sure you might be able to do it, but would I take on that bet? Not likely. I would love to have the optimism of you and 88 but at some point we have to take a look and say hmmm this isn’t what the people who said we’d be above normal for snowfall said would happen this far. I gave many examples of why I thought January would be warmer in December and I was nearly laughed off the board. It sucked. I don’t like losing two months of my favorite season but me saying it will make a big comeback won’t make it happen. I said it yesterday that the Mets who routinely predict snowy and cold have been more right than wrong since 2000 not because of their skill but because it HAS been snowier, much more so than normal. It is a conformational bias. Long range forecasting is an imperfect science. Anything over 50% is a good long range forecast.

How is it still early? Over halfway through met winter and rapidly approaching 2/3rds over. We are behind big time. Can we force overtime (March) and get AN snow? Possibly but teleconnections don’t look good

39 pages for a minor storm. We are desperate!

Most people are not negative and anti cold, just realists. Many do not have biases, just present the data. If anything the board has a cold bias overall because most of us are winter lovers, just aggravated with this winter. Moving forward there isn't much to jump for joy with at least through the beginning of February if not longer. Here is to hoping.

Just odd that 3 miles makes that big of a difference because it is sad right now in Tuckahoe.

Figured it out. Tuckahoe area near Yonkers.

How do you upload photos? Mine won't allow it (too large). Looks like you have about the same 0.5 as me.

Show a pic then because I’m trying to upload one and there is still grass poking through and I’m on the tallest ridge south of White Plains.