Holston_River_Rambler

And of course now that the MJO is getting into the western Pac all that nice convection from two weeks ago (that it might have helped enhance) has died out, lol Although there is some south of Hawaii and east of Central America.

Thunder IMBY. You know what that means...

The 6z GFS shows what could be a downright magical pattern evolution. Not saying this going to happen, but I guess it is at least on the table. Imagine what would happen if the NAO block trapped a vort under it in a massive rex block on a continental scale: And then it retrograded west enough to keep us on the NW edge of a upper level SW flow, while maintaining cold air:

One of the interesting things about the strat PV disruption is that I think it is 100% related to this NAO block (not sure which is the chicken and which is the egg in this case though). However, long range strat PV is showing another sort of SPV evolution that might result in a warming and not just a split: GFS Euro: I think what we are looking at in the medium/ shorter range is more like what happened in 2018 when we had the nice blocking in March after the strat split or warming (can't remember which) in late Feb. the gifs above would be like more recent SSWs but they're pretty far out in 300+ hr "magical retrograding snowstorm on the 18z GFS" land, so who knows. It's such and awesome block, I hope someone one in the eastern half of the US gets hammered at some point. With such a big NAO, you might think we would be looking at an Archambault event as the block eventually breaks down. That is a summary of the nature of the events from the page below and was written in regards to a different event. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/pacific-archambault-signal-for-equinox.html I think these are the publications if anyone is interested. I may dig into one later when I have more time:

What in the world is that at the end of the 18z GFS: The ultimate -NAO storm?

The bright green is SO2

GFS and Euro wanting to show a bit of a split of the SPV. Looks like there is probably some relationship with the -NAO ridge developing. Euro: GFS: Here is the 3D model from the 0z GFS run last night:

In fact, we might want to go ahead and clear janetjanet a place off at the TN Valley weather table: There's that La Nina firehose we all know and love!

I don't know, I still think the MJO did a pretty good job delivering cold air here, even with the 8-1-2 in the COD. I DO think the horrible Pac on the long range Ops and Ens. has been impacted by where the MJO is now and has been for the past few days. Yuck: On the other hand Satellite looks kind of meh to me. I've seen much worse looks. I'm kind of surprised it registers this as a medium amplitude 7. It would be nice if we can get this NAO block to hold out long enough for whatever the MJO pass gets back to whatever produced this most recent cold snap and the one week long on in October. It was pretty stout. Wiped out + anomalies for the western part of the state and almost did it in the east: Now if we get through the next week and a half to two weeks and the Pac still looks awful on day 10+ or so modeling, Nina for the loss!

Happy Thanksgiving from Morgan County:

Some chatter about the long range EPS in the MA subforum, so I thought I would post it here. Interesting pattern if it verifies:

Remember when the Euro showed this? Pepperidge farm remembers:

Sorry for the flurry of posts, but just thought of one more thing to add. Well more of a question. Do y'all think there is a relationship between the upper level divergence forecast over NE South America and the Caribbean, and the -NAO that the ensembles are also wanting to build along the same longitude?

Out in ye olden tropics, looks to me at least like the MJO wave has moved into 5/6: At that pace it should make it to the more favorable regions in about 2 weeks. Still some convection holding on in the central and western Pac too. I don't have a clue what it is, but there seems to be some favorable aspect to that environment. I will be interested to see how all that looks in a couple of weeks. The RMMs suggest that it will do what it did last time and die out: The above is the GEFS, and the EPS looks pretty similar. But let's remember that the low amplitude treck it just took through the COD produced enough cold to probably even out the temp anomalies in November by the end of the week. The EPS and GEFS also want to argue for significant tropical forcing over NE South America and the Caribbean in about 10 days: Not really sure if that is MJO related or something else, but it will be interesting to see how and if that modulates the pattern.

The GFS has been handling the Friday system weirdly over the past few runs, but the Euro has been more consistent. Either way , the main low is pulled west of the TN valley, like Carver's said, but hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pattern and the GFS is holding the system back too much. It's November, cutters gonna cut. I feel like its always been some version of a cutter, just a question of can the whole shortwave eject out of the SW at once, and how much energy gets pulled in on the back side as it strengthens and pulls away. It is East TN and it is a chance for snow, so what can go wrong, may in fact go wrong, lol. Hopefully at least a good upslope for the eastern mts and NC.

Past that system, the GEFS and EPS seem pretty -NAO happy past day 10: Canadian ensembles, not so much:

it's a situation where it would be fun to see how many Ensemble members show such stout blocking and which don't, to give us the more washed out meh look. Is it like a big snow on the ensembles where one or two with major blocking skew the mean, or more of an even split? Not sure there is a model service that gives individual ensemble members H5 looks though.

You -NAO lovers are gonna love the 6z GFS: Of course it is still waaayyyy out there.

Is this the time where we talk about the Euro holding back shortwaves in the SW too long

12z GFS FTW:

Euro had an interesting evolution at the end of its run overnight: Obviously not a great look for anywhere outside of SWVA and elevations, but at least it's something. Hopefully it ends up better than the last one I was interested in, lol. GFS quite a bit different with its evolution of the system.

I am not totally 100% sold on fighting a crappy Pac just yet. Now, I may be 90% sold on it, but not 100%. I want to see what happens if the MJO wave can catch up to some of the convection in the Pacific. I suspect by this time next month the tale will be told. Seems like around this time for the past couple of years like I notice some convection in the better parts of the Pac and then it will just fizzle out. Could be that will happen in this instance too. One of the mets in the general forecasting part if the bigger forum seemed to think there was also a chance that the dying La Nina might allow for the MJO to make it to the better phases, at least later in the winter, since it had a strong pass this last time.

Interesting line up of convection in the western Pac: The majority of the tropical convection is still in what we would call phase 4 on the MJO RMM plots, but last time I looked a few days ago the whole tropical Pac was pretty empty. Maybe we can get some of that to hang around while the MJO wave slowly percolates eastward? Might help facilitate some of that blocking y'all been talking about. GFS pushes it even further east to the central Pac over the next few days: Euro does the same, but it eventually interacts with storms N. of Hawaii: Of course it could also be too early in the season for any of this to matter, but that's all I have while we wait to see how all this evolves over the next couple of weeks.

95/96 analogue will save winter and basketball! It is mighty!

I guess I should have looked at the 0z GFS before I went through all that above lol: