Holston_River_Rambler

I'm curious as to how it is showing an ice storm for central and N. east TN with that track. Is it downsloping the midlevels, but locking low level cold air in? I hate ice, but meteorologically that would be something to see.

He can't get in board until go time. He said it himself a storm or two ago. The jinx would come into play.

Beautiful: It shows some mixing issues, but the soundings are mighty close to being all snow: Here's one over the Pellissippi area:

It's making the turn and looks like it will rake E TN. A solid NAMing!

1002 mb low over Pensacola at hour 72. That would be a straight up Miller A. woot woot!

yeah, what a south jump:

Looks like it is trying to pop a 1008 mb low around Mobile at hour 60.

Some of the subtle differences are starting to pay dividends at hour 57. Base of the vort is probably 150 miles south of 6z.

Noticeably more confluence over NE I would say at hour 45. It isn't much, but enough to make a difference.

I think there is a hair more confluence on the NAM at hr 39. Like 4 pixels worth, lol.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ There are lots of parameters to toggle at the top.

now here's a real weenie post, looks like the SREF members like em some gulf lows, lol: I count 16 gulf lows or gulf coastal lows and 8 inland ones.

I think part of the problem we are seeing with the lp locations, has to do with the fact that this big ball of energy is just dropping in from the NNW. Normally with a bowling ball system like this it rolls in from the 4 corners and so pops an initial low in TX or the Gulf, but this system already has a surface low dropping in and so as the energy makes the turn, that low gets confused ( I know its not alive, but hear me out) wrt which boundary to jump to. Does it jump up into the eastern TN valley? Does it jump down to the toasty Gulf coastal waters? Does it stay near its energy? And while all this is going on, the system is moving, so pretty soon the Gulf stream becomes an option too. I think we want this energy to drop in so far south that there is never a doubt about where the low pops: the Gulf. I wish I knew more about the physics and meteorology of surface low formation so I could convince myself that the warm Gulf waters would override these other options.

If the TN Valley had a motto for winter storms, that would be it, lol. Ligans aculas

As I was trying to find a picture to help Dsty's question (I was looking for an ideal situation for the eastern valley), I found this reanalysis image from Feb 2014: This energy is much stouter, but we have a similar HP to deal with: Here is the radar of what that produced Again the energy that is creating this storm is stronger, so there is more worry of WAA and downsloping, but notice in 2014 we also had a kicker dropping in. Sure I would like to see a 2014 repeat, but I don't think that is exactly where we are headed. I will say though that that storm was one of the top analogues the MA folks kept throwing around a day or two ago.

Nary a clue. I will say that I think the 6z Euro was pretty close to having a deform band move across the state, but I don't know exactly how to recognize those this far out. But if that happened we could get higher than 10:1 ratios.

And I understand that the 10:1 isn't realistic, but at this point I just don't care, lol. That were a run for many parts of TN

Pivotal's snowfall, 10:1 for the prettiest colors:

Here's what Pivotal did with the precip. type maps:

Just looking at the energy you would think it would spawn a low near Mobile that ran up the coastal plain.

Yeah I was about to say the center of the upper level energy on the 6z Euro was ~100 miles south of 0z at hour 81.

Maybe the UKIE will win this one. It's had the weirdest outcomes when compared to every other model and maybe that's the approach this system needs, lol.

@AMZ8990 is the 6z RGEM winner: 6z GFS seemed to take a really nice energy pass: and we get a 999 low just south of Atlanta, but the 850 low still makes a run at the eastern valley. However, the 850 low has been trending SE the past 4 runs: if we could get that 850 low to round the Apps, that would be nice. But as it stands this AM, on the GFS at least, that is ne Bueno for areas that would get downsloping from the Apps and be impacted by a piece of the low trying to slide up the eastern valley. 6z GEFS looks like it tries to have a few members be straight up Miller As, but the majority are still these Miller B messes: but like Tellico said last night, those members don't quite get the precip back over the Apps. 6z NAM looks like it is a little further south than the GFS, but still sends some energy up the valley.

I think the Sillin post is regarding the energy in blue, and that piece is important and the one that was sampled earlier today. But pay attention to the one I've circled in pink as the NAM runs. That is the primary vort in this set up, IMO:

IMO NAM will be interesting, it is slower in the primary shortwave as the above post suggests, but has some stronger vorticity at hour 24