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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Caveat, this post is aimed at the very end of the long range right now. As we start to transition back to a less favorable pattern in the long range, I thought I'd look at ye olden strat. Lots of run-to-run variability (that's code for I looked at two runs and am too lazy to dig deeper right now). There're the sort of disruptions we'd expect with the less favorable tropical forcing: 50mb: Nothing though that looks much different than it looked in the long rage in December. Indian Ocean convection looking healthy. I looked at it over the past 3 weeks (not the below gif) and there has definitely been a tendency for the convection over tropical Africa to move offshore in the past week, so I think it probably is the expected MJO wave started up again in its treck across the eastern hemisphere's tropics. Even though the RMMs have us in the COD, I suspect that is because there are competing areas of convection. Still some in the Maritime Continent into the western Pac. When and if that Indian Ocean wave propagates to the Maritime Continent, we probably torch, but hopefully we can avoid the heavy rains that El Nino baby's CFS plots from a few days ago showed. One point of interest that I noticed Raindancewx pointed out in one of the volcano threads, was that the volcano shook up the waters around Tonga and cooled them off: That little cooler area north of New Zealand. I've noticed that that area is a prime region for TC development when the MJO gets to phase 7, so it wil; be interesting to see how and if that changes anything when the MJO gets there again in late February.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Little bit of a leeside low in Upstate SC: Wonder is that is helping enhance this a bit AND I wonder if that means y'all will get another one of these tomorrow evening as the next shortwave rolls through?
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Players are still on the field for the big phased bomb from the 12z GFS. Shortwave in the southwest ejects out about 48 hours too quickly this time so a swing and a miss:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've seen worse and we're pretty used to the marginal set ups this winter at this point:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the happy hour GFS is trying to move the dreaded Lakes Low out a little quicker with the Tuesday system. Might be a realistic solution in the fast flow. That clipper is dragging some nice cold air behind it, so if we can time the southwest shortwave out just a tad slower, we might have something.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty good little band moving down the eastern valley: Look like Knoxville might even get in on the action for a minute
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was just wondering if anyone was getting any upslope moisture. One of the coldest frontal passage during the day time for me this winter.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I had a few crappie at 5 AM (sadly none were regulation keepers), but mostly big old fat rain drops.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do we think there will be a Nino next year? Will it be the sacréd Modoki? Will it actually behave like an El Nino or will the pattern have this sort of a "back loaded" look from our last Nino: I feel like this week and esp. what we're seeing modeled next week have actually been/are what we would expect out of a La Nina: fast flow and N stream, having to time everything just right. But, the STJ has also been active over the past couple of week and we certainly didn't have a front-loaded winter: Imagine if that had been based on 1971 - 2000 normals! I guess you could argue that the past 2 and a half weeks are our front loaded winter, but to me this is more of a middle loaded winter so far. That image does of course suggest that there's another variable in my question about next year's ENSO, but as strange as this may sound to some, let's leave that out for now since I don't want to stir the pot. I guess my question is, do we think the Pacific gradients are somewhat reset after the super Nino of Doom(c) in 2016? How's the AMO looking? Did the PDO flip this year?
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Any guesses what precip type I've had this morning?
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some GFS Fv3 levels of freezing rain:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's the La Nina we know and love:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    TIMs model is booting up for it's 0z run:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro manages to look kind of RGEMish and gets some qgf back over the mts: How much of that makes it to the ground is up in the air. It is a slight west jog from 0z.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not that anybody trusts the Euro at this point, but for those of use who are happy just to se snow falling, it gets the job done tomorrow AM for parts of East TN, SW VA and SE KY even the 6z GFS is trying: The only other models that are trying to show this are the WRF-ARWs, so it is what it is I guess.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    This may have been the little piece of vorticity John was talking about, but I'm not sure, so here is a frame from the 6z RGEM: Look at that tiny area of vorticity in the blue circle. Now watch what it does as the run progresses: It seems to be encouraging at least some part of the southern vort to interact with the northern one. It's a pretty subtle strand of vorticity, so something to watch on the very Hi Res models over the next few cycles.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I saw someone ask this in one of the other forum areas. They said to turn your phone sideways and for some reason that would show the location when it doesn't if your phone is vertical. Give that a try and see if it works. i ay be misremembering that though so if that is the case, apologies.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    It looked to me like there was the potential for a little more interaction early on, but that didn't work out at all. One positive note is that there has been a noticeable, but small trend with the jet streak to become stronger and move NW over the past few runs: We're pretty well positioned to be on the right entrance region if that amplification continues.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the GFS is going to be a tick better this run, based on vorticity changes at hr 51, but let's see how it plays out.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've figured it out. We've run out of thunder. TIMs model needs a reboot tomorrow night.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    You forgot that at the end of the run we got the ever fruitful Miller B to cap it off. <please read with sarcasm>
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if this ends up being like the December 2017 storm?
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    That being said, I agree with John, but the worst we can expect now is a last minute NW trend to help extreme eastern areas.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    But if i lived in the NC Triad area, I wouldn't get my hopes up and claim the GFS has saved the day: People talk about warning shots, IMO if I lived in the Raleigh Durham area, these are warning shots:
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