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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    We have the Carter's Valley snow hole and the Hardin Valley snow hole on the 6z GFS run: We also have a Strat split right now: With the potential for another one in the long range. Convection from last weeks western Pac kind of puttered out so we never saw the big SOI drop I thought we would, but I was pretty impressed by how the MJO just tanked into the COD this week.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the convection from last Sunday has pushed into the western Pac a little quicker than I was expecting. With that look I wouldn't be surprised if there is a huge SOI drop one day later this week or next weekend. Now to be fair the SOI was almost +20 today, but there is also a tropical cyclone creeping around near Darwin. Looks like there is also some decent convection firing in the eastern Indian Ocean, so I guess we'll see what that does as the week goes on. I still think we might have a window centered on the ides of March, plus or minus a few days before or after.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Mostly rain here with a little bit of very wet snow mixed in.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same mixed bag here in Bearden area. About to head back to Morgan county so I’ll be interested to see what it is doing up that way.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the Obed is living the dream today: https://fb.watch/bnGvZy9M-q/
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think we're in the worst of the "long range modeling having deteriorating looks" phase of Feb. Tropical convection is ugly, but chugging along: It still has to make it further east and not die out when and if it gets into more favorable reasons. I'm sure there will be a couple of tropical cyclones to delay it as well, but I think the second week of March holds some hope. There's some talk in the MA forum of a -AO as well. Or I could be totally wrong. But hey, at least the floods look like they end today for a week! And no one has 14 inches of rain, thankfully.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some pics from the book of faces of the Emory at Oakdale. Looks like it got pretty close: A creek that flows into the Emory at Oakdale: Source thread: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10228796306238170&set=pcb.2030041027163489
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Flood warning for Emory River at Oakdale.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just got the most vivid lightning since fall. That creates a special, off run of the TIMs model. 60%.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    More lightning and thunder now. 50%
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lightning off in the distance to the south. 40%.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thunder and lightning overnight. TIMs model is 30% charged.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    The only way this is going to work is if we get some nice thunder this week. Nary a rumble since I can remember. TIMs is out of juice.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sadly I cancelled Storm Vista, or I would show the Ukie. Euro tries for some last second magic for TRI though:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry I didn't mean that to come out as challenge to the "winter's over" statement. It could be for me, for all I know. I had just been thinking about the MJO for the past couple days and was thinking about making a post after I looked at it. I hadn't looked at it since last week and it just struck me how much it seemed to have progressed. If nothing else it seems to be persistent, but weak this winter, but it also seems to get sort of hung up for a bit in some areas.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    The real team to beat is team EPS member 18:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro was still a little bit south with the firehouse, so yeah somebody in the TN Valley watershed is going to get it. Hopefully nothing like the 14" amounts come to fruition anywhere.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the 0z EPS members really like the storm window y'all were talking about yesterday:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS seems to be trending a bit north with the worst rainfall this week. WPC seems to like that solution: Looks pretty much like the NBM, but hedging on the higher side. Seems reasonable to me. Will be interesting to see exactly where the firehose sets up.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    MJO convection, IMO, seems to be moving pretty well. It's taken it about a week and a half to move from the eastern Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent. The TC aiming at Madagascar is a big reason why the RMMs want to keep it in the Indian Ocean at this point, I think. Below you can see how the Euro ensembles really want to jump it to the MC, but the IMO TC is forcing whatever equation Wheeler and Hendon came up with to spit out a medium amplitude phase 3. I think in ~ 10 days the MJO wave is going to be back in the western Pac or close to it. Questions though: 1. How far does it make it/ Will it be a strong push? 2. How many TCs get spun up and potential weaken any convection associated with it? 3. Does it even matter in March?
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Quick thought: I wonder if there is a sort of funnel that is created by the extensions of the plateau, that helps focus lift, if the wind is NW/ NNW:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Antediluvian Flood Watch Podunk Weather Service Mossy Grove 757 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 ...The Podunk National Weather Service in Mossy Grove has issued an Antediluvian Flood watch for the following areas... TN Valley watersheds For the TN Valley watersheds ...including, but not limited to: Lancing, Nod, Deer Lodge, Frog Level, Carter's Valley, Oneida, Boring Chapel, Riverfront Seafood, Boozy Creek, Blackwater, Melungia, Knoxville, elevated river levels are forecast. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Stay tuned to further developments by checking TN Valley Banter often, look to your local augur, entrail reader, or even Raven Radio for further information. The next statement will be issued no later than 24 hours after the next bonkers GFS run. && TN065-182245- /O.NEW.KTYS.FL.Y.0027.220218T1037Z-220223T0018Z/ 757 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 ...ANTEDILUVIAN FLOOD watch IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THRU WEDNESDAY PM * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is shown on GFS runs * WHERE...TN Valley watershed * WHEN...From early this morning to Wednesday PM * IMPACTS...At 14.0 inches of rain the 0z GFS done went there. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Ark building prep is RECOMMENDED, but not MANDATORY at this time...
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I have a dusting on sheltered and elevated surfaces.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we can get some ice rafts going on the floods? I'll volunteer to buy the flamingo guy an orca floaty. 12z GFS
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    The means, the means for the CMC, Euro, and GFS ensembles for the TN valley river systems are from 4.5 - 6.5 inches. I think flamingo man riding his floaty in front of the fellini Kroger was pretty much peak flood action in Knoxvegas in 2019. I think I was looking at the means that far out that year, so I'm going to go dredge up those posts and see how that looked. But lordy the 6z GFS gave me flashbacks with where the firehose was aimed. And it wasn't at fantasy range:
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