Holston_River_Rambler

Let's see what happens.

Biggest caveat I can see now for this clipper, would be the inevitable 2 hours of virga on the front end

I couldn't tell you why I think that's unusual, except in looking at these sorts of images over the past few years, that looks odd.

That is a very unusual water vapor image IMO:

I mean, this is the sacred and rare clipper, seem like it's been since the early 2000s that I remember a no muss no fuss clipper.

I'm halfway ready to pop an obs. thread for tomorrow. I'll play it safe and wait until around 7PM and see how things look.

If you take the 15z RAP verbatim,, I call 1-2" tomorrow for Kingsport, Bristol, and JC. Heading to Boone in the AM, so hopefully I get in on the action too!

12z RGEM pops a little band of moderate snow as far south as Morristown around sunrise tomorrow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE, HOLSTON'S WEATHER EMPORIUM, Mossy Grove, TN 6:30 AM EST ****YE OLDEN CLIPPER WARNING*** * WHAT...Light to occasionally moderate snow. Snow accumulations 1 to 4 inches, greatest across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 7 mph will produce pretty sights. * WHERE...Eastern KY, SW VA, and possibly Bristol, TN and Mountain City, TN The greatest additional accumulations will focus across the higher terrain of the High Knob and peaks on the KY and NA border above 2500 feet. * WHEN...Starting late this evening * IMPACTS...Plan on some snow covered and slippery road conditions as well as the comfortable ease of a clipper's accumulations. Hot chocolate is recommended for these trying times. SUMMARY...SW VA and eastern KY is in danger of getting hit by the first traditional clipper to hold together all the way to the southern Apps region in what seems to me like 7.5 million years. Some of the Hi Res models clip extreme NE TN too. Pretty much all the Hi Res models show the same thing, even the ever stingy NBM.

EasternLI had a pretty good post in the main forum ENSO thread last evening. It’s somewhat pro-wintry wrt the MJO handwringing of snow weeniedom across several wx forums right now. Read it or not, up to y'all, but it attempts to sort through some of the mixed signals on models later this month. I would try to summarize it, but have to get on the road early this AM.

I was thinking if this system was just 150 or so miles south this would be an eerily similar start to winter to Dec 1995.

Pretty obvious melting layer on radar this AM:

I hope you get to experience a 95-96 up that way @Carvers Gap. If I remember you said you were in Knoxville in 95-96? That is my favorite winter hands down ( I was in Kingsport). We got a 4-6" around this time in Dec '95, I feel like it was a clipper that over performed. It was an overnight deal.

Pretty decent NAMing for parts of SW VA at 12z. Especially areas NE of Abington towards Wytheville.

Some ensemble interest on the GEFS for Sunday night into Monday morning: As expected, Euro, not so much:

Interesting to see the trend for more return flow moisture for the Sunday night into Monday system on the GFS If anything the Euro is getting dryer It still has a little slug of moisture over S Alabama and eastern Georgia, but it doesn't really make it north. To be honest my choice to use 700mb is arbitrary, but is the place I see the biggest difference between the GFS and Euro on relative humidity panels: the 500 mb vort seems slightly more amped on the GFS, but not by much. NAMs and RRFS (thanks John for the heads up about ol Rufus) emphasize a second shortwave connected to the above, dropping in and enhancing upslope without much fanfare for the first shortwave the GFS likes. Here is Rufus and teh second shortwave in all Rufus's pixilated glory. I suspect the GFS is wrong about the first shortwave, since even the NAM in NAMing range isn't too interested, but could be nice for elevation areas in NE TN, SW VA, and especially Western NC if not. I think Carvers pointed out a run of the GFS yesterday that had like 6" in portions of that area.

Looks like a pretty defined Rain/snow line on Correlation coefficient showing up near John and Daniel:

The rain has arrived here in southern Morgan county. If i use my imagination there might be a very, very melted snowflake mixed in.

Dropped from 45 to 41 between Oak Ridge and my house. Not hopeful for MBY, but hopeful for places N and E.

I felt a moisture particle in the ridge of Oaks, so I started a sacrificial obs thread for tonight and tomorrow’s event.

I volunteer as tribute for an obs thread for this one.

HRRR was keeping me and I 40 north snow overnight but has trended NW and warmer since 6z. Both RAP and HRRR have a warm nose between 850 and 750mb: HRRR: RAP" That's not a huge one, but it's there. Keep in mind this is also just for my area in and around Knoxville, and Oak Ridge. Just one county to the north near Oneida, both of the above models keep snow around, but it does look to me like there is a NW trend the past few runs of the Hi Res models. On to 12z.

0z HRRR looking a little RAPish, about 40 SE with the snow wrt 18z: I'll wait until 12z tomorrow to get my hopes up for the inevitable flop though.

Like John said, probably the best run of any model for this potential event so far. An outlier for now.

I would say the 18z Euro ticked SE just a hair too. Apologies, I was still comparing the 6z and 12z.