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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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Winter 2024/2025 February Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, I think the ICON was going to bring the second wave for more snow. It is the ICON alas. -
Webb going for the 2011 and 1974 analogs on X.
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Looks like the rain/snow line may be trying to slip south towards Kingsport with precip rates? @Carvers Gap
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Winter 2024/2025 February Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I found the link I posted for the above in links. It was the last thing I posted in links, lol. Doesn't work for me anymore sadly. -
Winter 2024/2025 February Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
For anyone looking for a convenient MJO site: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html I'll archive it in links too. -
Winter 2024/2025 February Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Load of sleet falling right now in Morgan County. -
Winter 2024/2025 February Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
RGEM throwing out 3" an hour rates in parts of SW VA tomorrow morning: NAM 3k not too far off: GFS looks even better towards High Knob: -
And so begin our semi-annual February floods: The firehose is poised and aimed. The creeks and streams runneth over. Puddles gather on low lying areas. Dams are pumping out 2-3 generators. The Holston River in west Kingsport this past Friday (2/7) The Obed today 2/9 MRX:
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Winter 2024/2025 February Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I'll go for it. -
Winter 2024/2025 February Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
@jaxjagman East Asia rule? -
Winter 2024/2025 February Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
16th - 17th looks like it has some potential to be one of the rare "shift south" storms with the massive -AO and Greenland block. Some small hits on the ensembles in a "wave riding a front" just in time situation for parts of TN for now. Probably not worth digging much deeper for now. -
Winter 2024/2025 February Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
We're good man! -
Winter 2024/2025 February Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Latest janetjanet outlook: Pretty cool page with a bunch of togglable functions on the experimental water page: https://water.noaa.gov/ Here's the page with the flood outlook products: https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-national-fho-archive?d=2025-02-08 -
Man, that storm had some staying power, it stayed alive almost to the NC coast: Part one from Gainesboro to Charlotte Part two Charlotte to the coast: Nightime Microphysics:
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2 deaths confirmed by MoCo EMS. Sounds like in the Deer Lodge area, but not sure.
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Hopefully that’s all you get. Meanwhile the cell in Sevier county is getting a hook.
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Looks like the main storm's couplet is trying to reorganize, and heading toward the Powell area.
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That foreground valley in the landscape picture I posted above is pretty close to where that last couplet passed
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Passed by, just a little wind, but I suspect the couplet passed juuusssttt to my north.
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New random couplet headed my way, yay!
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This will give y'all some idea of the terrain it is dealing with now: Vertical arrow is pointing at the valley that has the prison, and the horizontal arrow is approximate track, WNW --> ESE
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No, it was probably about 10 minutes NE of me.
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Looks like the circulation is passing really close to the prison near Frozen Head.
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A gif of the couplet from earlier: Most recent: Frozen Head has some peaks above 3000' so that may do a number on it.
