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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    If I lived in some place like NYC of Boston, I'd be pretty pissed at that guy for posting something like that. I think 90th percentile means it is higher than 90 percent of all samples in the analog set. Here's what the same analog set has for percentage on sites getting greater then 4". I don't mean this in any way as a dig at you Powell, I just think that guy is farming for clicks from high population center snow weenies.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Google AI Weathernext 2.2e841369r16r4y1` trend over the past few runs. Ripped from another forum so you may have to look at the time stamps to see, but the current trend is a friend to you TRI folks: that is a 10:1 ratio too
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    And by “decent” I don’t mean anything too crazy. But by no means a whiff.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Precip maps looked like they had some decent snow over eastTN but I can’t tell how that compares to 12z
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not that I can see.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Trying to keep it fresh, salty, and buttery this evening.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    It could be lol.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was pretty vague but also pretty enticing. it looked “wild.” And was a “monster.” no idea what that means specifically, and especially for east TN, but it does at least sound like in shifted in someway
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    After what Bounycorn said on southernwx I think we’re all just sitting back and waiting for it lol.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like Google Weathernext v2.78665 pretty well held with the upper low bringing snow, but that's about it.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    New weather model/ data site: https://aguacerowx.com/app/
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    And if you want a good snow in East TN, that is exactly how you want it.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro ticked back west a bit, but like Tellico, I'm now in the "let's see how hi res models handle this" camp
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    We got NAM'd!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Visible satellite:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yo, Kingsport people, especially west Kingsport/ anyone in Hawkins county y'all seeing any Cherokee Lake effect snow? I've got some Watts Bar Lake effect snow here (posted in general obs) and a band from Cherokee aimed at KPT is showing up on satellite. I'll move this post later this AM. But thought more people would see it here.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some nice dendrites: https://i.imgur.com/WFmqpvQ.mp4
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting some Lake effect flurries off of Watts Bar this AM. Wondering if anyone else upwind is seeing anything. Looks like something similar off of Cherokee aimed at West Kingsport
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    There was a time late last week when the EPS actually liked the 4-6th window better than this weekend.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just as an example, look at this sigma anomaly (standard deviation from the norm).
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Probably what I'd go with too for now if I had to make and official forecast for 5-7 days out. As modeled, this is a highly anomalous system with extremely high end potential for someone in the eastern US. Highly anomalous things are just that, very uncommon. N. stream has been favoring cold and dry and at this range, so I'd go with the trend and only start to introduce some pops (20%) tomorrow if this holds.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think its possible, but how likely it is, that's another question.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS from 1/23 is probably the high end of what could happen at this point with some ticks west: Please note before you look below, this is from 0z GFS 1/23, not a more recent run
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the CIPS H5 analogs: I think it looks at the GFS's forecast and populates analogs from that. All CIPS has is the GFS as a base layer for comparison unfortunately.
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