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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS brings back some fond memories: NBM is a little over half that. IMO somebody is going to get 4-6" .qpf out of this in the TN Valley, just a matter if where the firehose sets up.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    NBM has the central and southern plateau at 4” of rain by early next week and close to 5.5” near Huntsville AL. will be interesting to see how that plays out with snow melt .
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is a pretty good one: https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/20/madden-julian-oscillation/
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also, was just looking at the RMM plots this AM and man the MJO made a big jump into higher amplitude: Here is the plot I posted a couple of days ago: Here is this mornings: That's a pretty high amplitude and the GEFS even has a member propagating into off the charts territory in 7 There is some convection trying to push into the Western Pac, but in all honesty, this image is straight up the La Nina tropical Pac look we've mostly had for several years now. Earlier in the winter, even when we had some of the more unfavorable phases, we at least had some convection near the dateline : The above image is from Dec 10, when the MJO was in a similar phase, but at a lower amplitude:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another thing that's pretty unlikely IMO, but has a smidge of ensemble support and occasional OP runs is that as this moisture feeds starts to wind down next weekend, some northern stream energy tries to phase with the last STJ shortwave as it kicks out. 12z CMC from yesterday probably shows the upside: But there are a few of EPS and GEFS members that see it too.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Both GEFS and EPS have around a 3" .qpf mean, most of it falling Wed - this upcoming weekend. I'm kind of ready to wash the brine and scuz snow/ ice off the roads. I wouldn't be surprised though if we have some snow piles in parking lots until the next pattern window after the first week in Feb.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I thought I was over it, then I saw it falling again. But yeah, usually I like it for 2 days and then am ready to wash it all away and start chasing days 10 GFS storms again.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Staring to get some pretty good light snow here. Reminiscent of clippers of yore. Somebody may get a good half inch out of this in the lower elevations, if the dendrites align just right.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I attempted last night. I should be old enough to know better.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I must have had some sleet mix in at one point too. Thankfully it gave the glaze a little bit of traction. Pretty good swath of precip swinging into north central TN now. Hope it can hold together.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    No worries. Just hope I don’t live through that while I’m here.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    No. Still in Kingsport then. I know about that tornado and try not to think about it though lol.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Slicker ‘n’ owl snot up here in Mossy Grove.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got some nice pictures of asperitas clouds over Frozen Head: From Oak Ridge: From petros: From Wartburg:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Meandered my way back to the Oak Ridge Kroger. Light sleet and freezing rain mix.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sleet reported by my neighbor.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Radar scope showing snow and some decent returns over my house. Sadly I am in Hardin Valley right now.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honestly I could see this starting as snow and being mostly snow for areas north of 40 if we get decent precip rates. Less forcing and we get freezing drizzle and rain. I feel like back in the ancient times this used to be a pretty common set up with WAA over a snowpack. Typically stated as snow but transitions to ZR pretty quick.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z RGEM: 4 run trend of RGEM is less qpf and a tick south:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    That gif is a little jerky, so here is a static image:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye olden Lake effect off of Cherokee, Norris, and Douglas:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I saw a weather station south of Sparta with a -17. Several -15s on that side of the plateau.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    There’s a weather underground station between statesville and auburntown TN already showing -6.
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