Holston_River_Rambler

Long range RGEM backing the flow a little bit before one of the weekend's short waves. I'll post another pic when the prettier maps come out.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Annadel, TN 551 AM EST Tue Jan 13, 2026 Including the cities of Bristol, Johnson City, Kingsport, Knoxville, Deer Lodge, Frog Level, Greeneville, Sneedville, Mosheim, Blountville and even Petros 551 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...ROAD BRINE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST JAN 17 * WHAT...BRINE TRUCKS ON THE ROAD * WHERE...ALL OF EAST TN AND PORTIONS OF SW VA AND EASTERN KY * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST JAN 17 * IMPACTS...Brine streaks on the roadways will lead to white crust on your vehicle until rain washes it away before the snow. Brine dust in the air will make breathing healthy and fun! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Call 1-800-NO-BRINE for more details. Be prepared for brined roads and brine trucks. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveway, you might dust up some brine.

I think the kicker over the lakes is just too much and will swooshle it out to sea unfortunately.

Here ye go:

happy to, which wrf though

Just a random shower thought: This whole vort mess that's tangled up and been a pain for models.... is there a road where some of this mess turns into a 50/50 and suppresses a wave past.... let's say 200 hours or so?

Over on southernwx they’re posting the Ukie. It would not be a bad look for the late weekend system at this range.

Do we need to issue a road brine watch for the some of our areas?

I prefer 8->1/2/3 for the MJO, but's just me. I think tropical forcing has the best influence when it goes through 8 and makes a full tour through 1/2/3. I don't think we've seen it do that in a looonngg time. Looks to me like it is about to blow its load in the west Pac and crash again.

The thing that is particularly frustrating about this weekend, is that there was a run (12z Friday, 1/9, I think) where all 3 globals showed a pretty similar system. If it had just been one model, meh.... but all three?

RGEM is even spinning up a low in Louisiana in its la la range. as far as I can tell it is the only model with that feature: looped to see the spin:

Speculation post: If patterns run in cycles, it's been almost exactly 60 days since we had an anomalous shortwave dropdown over the southern Apps and drop some early season snowfall. 11/11/25: Jan 15 2026 Overall NA pattern isn't quite the same, but thus the: #speculative Would be interesting if we got another rerun of this in early March.

The Euro is definitely pulling on some stj moisture post 220 hrs or so.

Just based on the H5 vort and relative humidity maps it might be trying for something 200 hrs or so.

But let's also be fair to the GFS, the Euro (on left) also has some weird tropical critter in Pac, but the shortwave mess just ins't oriented in a way to draw from it.

Based on surface pressure maps from the Euro, I'm guessing it's a big old nope on the second system

@Carvers Gap Kingsport looks like it is about to get a decent squall.

Flurries IMBY as of now. Probably means John has an inch.

Some of the snow showers dropping out of KY have Special weather Statements:

Precip panels have finally populated:

The Euro still has substantial differences from the GFS I tried to get he loops as close as I could time stamp wise, but it still seems they are out of sync after a few frames.

I hope the metal snowman is still up.

At least the 6z Euro has a massive clipper dropping in late in its run Overnight ensembles still have both windows. I'm using the charts for TRI since both systems have looked better for eastern areas:

No thunder overnight. Not a good sign.

I was just thinking that we are entering the period where models sometimes lose systems or change them in some way only to come back 72 hours out or so. Something to do with wonky stakeouts data sometimes in the polar/ N. pac regions maybe? I also want to add that I’m sorry for what your going through Powell