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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z Euro still with widespread 6 - 7.5" through TN and Ohio watersheds. Some areas 8+. WPC basically sums it up. And that discussion above as well. Just amazing how wide the 7 - 10 inch field is. Weathertree I think janetjanet mentioned that a run of the GFS yesterday broke the pattern down, but (janetjanet can correct me if wrong) I took that as just a hopeful mention of what that model depicted as a way out of this awful pattern. 6z GFS is back to this; Basically GFS think we are one of the most soaked places on earth over the next 15 days. Good news is that it's just one run of the GFS. That being said, the 0z Euro really flattens the jet after day 7-8 and that would help a lot. Maybe not totally shut off precip, but at least stop this training mess. The Euro control (Euro itself run at slightly lower resolution), keeps it coming though, but with a slightly more suppressed flow.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS with aims the highest QPF mean into N. Alabama as of 12z today. 8-9 inch mean into N. Alabama and 7 - 8 inch mean into N. GA.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright severe people, I'm coming over to play for a week or two. I have access to all these fancy maps and nothing to use them on for now. What would you like to see? I really don't know what to look for in terms of severe weather, so let me know. But if I'm going to post Kuchera snow maps for winter folks, may as well most CAPE/ shear/ K index (whatever that is, but think has something to do with severe) maps too. Euro Surface CAPE: Euro Deep Layer Shear: Euro K Index: Here are other Euro products I have access to, but don't know what half of them mean:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yes, I have summoned you! But in all honesty, would it be any worse than Flora or Heath or Jimbly-bob, or whatever the Weather Channel goes with? Maybe Old Gregg?
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    #Grumpycat
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Have a buddy in Wetumpka, AL. Tornado hit 3 blocks from his house.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally found the site that has all the neat stratosphere prog maps I've been seeing in different places. https://stratobserve.com/tht_pvstr_maps
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    A collection of realtime charts, some hard to find like AAM and GWO: http://atlas.niu.edu/ I'm not sure how to read some of this yet, but thought some might find it useful.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found a new toy for past MJO( some of you may already have this) : http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found a nice website for N. Hemisphere info: https://yannickpeings.wixsite.com/nhatmosphere/copy-of-october-november-1
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    So... is the Modoki off the table @jaxjagman? Basin-wide moderate, or are things still in flux? Source of my question: Does Modoki vs. normal El Nino make that much difference for TN valley in the long run in terms of Winter pattern? Just heard so much about Modoki over the past years (not necessarily on here) and had my hopes up for something unusual this winter.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found an interesting site from the University of Wisconsin with some non operation GOES 17 imagery: http://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=G17-ABI-FD-BAND01 Also, thanks to all for the good conversation lately (esp. Fall-Winter spec.), have been wanting to participate more, but swamped with work at this time. Although just catching up it looks like boring heat is the optimal word for now.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it's all trying to consolidate into a line now over the upper Cumberland plateau. Hopefully that puts and end to most of the tornado threat for those folks. No disrespect meant to any chasers in any way.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Cell in Monroe county, KY looks to be developing a hook. https://imgur.com/jomk03r
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I saw Michael Ventrice on twitter say he thought this was going to be the biggest outbreak so far this year, but I suppose he could have been hyping to get followers. I just don't know enough about looking at severe parameters to tell how significant this looks. Also since I'm on the other side of the plateau and all this looks to be moving W - E, usual that means everything has consolidated and weakened by the time it gets to the eastern valley. I was surprised by the T-storms this morning and maybe that indicates the atmosphere is a little more prepped that it may seem at first glance? At work in Harriman right now and there are a lot of clouds here and that usually (but not always) spells stability, at least for my neck of the woods. But looks like the deck is starting to break up on GOES 16.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this nice website that has some limited, but nice ECMWF data for the N. Hemisphere. I think it is all past data, but still useful http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this nice write up on 300 -250mb level while trying to learn more about what was causing the lift over SW VA this evening. https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/winds/JetStream_Stuff/300_200_chart.htm
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting find from a meteorologist in the MA forum regarding how the WPC generates their snowfall and other winter precip types probability forecasts: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seeing the link Carvers Gap posted in the speculation thread, made me remember a storm I was always curious about. I was in Kingsport at DB at the time and remember a what was probably a weird upper low that just spun over East TN. I remember the radar showing snow everywhere but Kingsport and the analogue of 3/26/99 seems to fit that bill. I wasn't into weather as much at the time, but enough to notice the weirdness of it. Any one have any memories of that one?
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    And I thought my waterfalls coming out of Cumberland county were full before: Sorry should have included the scale, 4.80 inches is the white
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dates used for the above composite: 2-9-58 1-1-96 3-5-93 1-22-66 12-17-66 12-19-69 1-14-78 1-12-79 1-14-87 2-06-60 12-26-86 12-16-63 12-25-70 1-1-88 1-25-96 12-10-73 1-6-78
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    One last hurrah on this for a bit, unless asked for more.. I will be happy to do it for any all future months (with John's awesome help of course)! Disclaimer out of the way, I went through the KU book at just put in dates for one week before every storm from the 20th century that looked like it had a great track, or produced a lot of snow for most of the forum area. I mostly aimed for Miller As, since, for me anyway in Knoxville (1996 was good in Kingsport when I lived there though), Miller Bs have been awful. (Jan. 2016 was rough for me in Knoxville, though I watched it with y'all). There was one year that had a storm with an awesome track that their book showed as rain, but I left it in since the track was great and may have produced a different result given different boundary layer conditions. I also put in Jan. 1996, since it was epic for some of us. I couldn't add in anything after 2012, because of the data restrictions on the site, so I couldn't add my two favorite Knoxville storm years, Feb. 2014 and 2015. Without further ado, 500 mb anomalies in North America one week before some of our best storms:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll also add this. As disheartening as it is, after looking at the NAO data today and having just looked at dates for big storms over the past few days, I think we want more mediocre NAO values. Some of the big dates had -NAOs, but most were under -1.0. But I think we've all agreed that it is as the big block decays that we get our chance(s). On the other hand there were no -NAOs below 3.0 in the winter in the period of record and I think only two on record at all, for any month. If this one goes that low who's to say what the outcome is. I also don't like the look of the little ridge poking up on that first image. Looks familiar to what is being modeled with this persistent mid continent ridge that connects to that NAO.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright, I chose dates that seemed to me to have the worst outcome (rain, no snow, warm) and I threw in a few others on John's list that I found to have also happened after a recorded SSW. For the ones that happened after a SSW I have added ENSO state and QBO since it was included in the SSW information and I thought, why not, and so then went back and added ENSO state and QBO for the others. I will also go back and edit my posts for the big snows to include ENSO state and QBO data so they match these. Here are my dates: 3-28-51: ENSO neutral; E QBO 3-12-54: had been El Nino, but in the FMA timeframe, dropped off quickly to 0.0; E QBO 3-6-69: SSW event on 13 March; El Nino; E QBO 3-30-70: ENSO Neutral; E QBO 3-30-71: SSW event 20 March; La Nina; E QBO 3-24-77: El Nino transitioning to Neutral; E QBO 3-20-80: El Nino transitioning to Neutral; E QBO 3-18-81: SSW event 4 March; ENSO Neutral; W QBO 3-26-81: ENSO Neutral; W QBO 3-1-2001: SSW event Feb 11; La Nina; E QBO To be honest it doesn't seem like any of those dates could have been big time snow producers for valley locations (could be wrong) and I will also add that many of the "worst" outcomes that I picked were at the end of March, so climo. may have played a part in those outcomes. I have attached images of composites of 500mb geopotential height anomalies for the time the -1.0 NAO began (top image), then the progression by one week (middle), and then by two weeks (last image).
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