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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    The highs I noticed several days ago still look like they're trying to come down and as y'all noted... them getting far enough south to produce a bit of wintry weather isn't impossible. I still suspect that once those highs deliver their cold anomalies somewhere in the US, that's the end and the N. Hemisphere will have sobered up. Currently the coldest 850 anomalies in the N. Hemisphere are over W Canada and just don't think there can be a reloading. This new -NAO that the current storm is helping along slows the 500mb flow, and it's effects eventually bring the highs down. Not that I want them at this point, (ok maybe a little if they can push the boundary south of the TN Valley) more trying to figure out when we finally shake all this and get into some consistently warmer weather. In the meantime though this week the SE ridge seems to have verified stronger than models had forecast. What looked to be a very wet and gloomy week in the eastern valley a week or so ago has ended up gloomy, but not so wet. The flow has been more SW - NE and so western forum areas have gotten more rain as the boundary has pushed NW. Is this a trend for how the boundary might set up for the future threats or does the current storm shake things up for the next couple of weeks as it kicks out the bigger cyclone in the Atlantic? Crankyweatherguy (I think a good follow for understanding large-scale hemispheric patterns) on twitter points out there is still plenty of snowpack in Canada for these highs to build on. Does this impact how far south the highs can make it in April? How does the energy end up timing with these highs? Looks like I should have followed my own advice in tracking. Never the first, since the "April Fool's" Storm is living up to its name. Not that I ever expected much out of it aside from hopefully a good track analog for a colder season. But I was looking at it as the last in the line of the nor'easters that came from the Strat driven -NAO, but now I think it is the first to help create a new, more typical -NAO. At least it's pulling the boundary through for a day or two for a break in the gloom! I speculate that the April 10 - 13 period has some legs for a storm in the E US. As to what that means a this range, who's to say? GFS keeps wanting to pop a large cyclone and although the details bounce around, it keeps showing up. Does it take a lower track after some previous disturbances carve out the trough? Is it the coveted "transition storm" in this case for a warmer pattern? I leave you with a crankyweatherguy image (taken from http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e032818.htm). That zonal yellow flow upstream looks mighty nice to me.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally managed to break the low clouds here in Knoxville for a bit today. I hit 80 too.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice thunderstorm about to roll through Knoxville at 9:25 PM: VIL on NEXRAD says a slight chance of hail... we'll see I'll add for PowellVolz and Jeff, that line of enhancement (already strong echoes) on a roughly W - E flow, looks familiar as it is rolling though
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I just heard some rumbles in Knoxville a few minutes ago. Just plain old cold with a relentless NE wind today. Big temperature gradient between the southeastern and the northwestern great eastern valley. Image is from around 730 PM.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    And on Kentucky's post too, some decent hail evident south for a time of Knoxville on NEXRAD's VIL product. Not sure how to use it to figure out hail size, but a small cell flared up for a bit. If there are that many hail producing cells in KY, even if it isn't large hail, wonder if they'll hold on into the TN valley? Image is from 4:17 PM, 3/24/18
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    We may find out. According to NEXRAD the southern edge of the blob of heavy snow is aimed at Blunderstorm. However, CC shows the Rain/ Snow line creeping precariously close to Honaker as well. Still got some snow Blunderstorm?
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting a little hopeful for you @BlunderStorm , at least through early afternoon. Even though warm air advection is apparent on SPC mesoscale analysis, it doesn't seem quite as pronounced at 850mb the further southeast you go along the boundary. In fact, the correlation coefficient on the Jackson, KY radar http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JKL-N0C-1-24 seems to show the rain/ snow line meandering southward, although stalling now a bit. Precip. rates in what's heading your way look good, so I wonder how this will play out since the more impactful warm nose looks to be still up toward Louisville.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I had to drive north to Oak Ridge that morning and it was amazing how different that little swath looked compared to surrounding areas. Also, even 100 feet made a difference that morning, driving through the gap in Sharp's Ridge, there was snow on everything on the ridge, but the cut off was almost exactly at the bottom.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Unfortunately for SWVA folks, after this AM's snow, it looks like roughly I-77 will become the dividing line this afternoon between rain and snow. Current observations show a slight but meaningful temp difference along this line: lower - mid 30s to upper twenties. All short range hi-res models show this line getting pushed back south between 7 and 9 PM tonight by high precip rates, but not by enough to help our folks out. For the March 30 - April 1 deal, still a lot of flip flopping as models try to figure out how the energy comes out of the southwest (as Jax noted yesterday), but I will say the trough east of Hawaii that Carvers has noticed that seems to correlate to good storm tracks for us, continues to show up. Like I said yesterday, not trying to hype something, more looking for meaning pattern indicators that we can save for nice storm tracks in more favorable months. Indeed the MJO seems to have said after it's near? record levels in phases 6-7 in February it wants to take a cruise through 8-3 again. Thanks for mentioning that index, hadn't thought about it in in a while. And yikes on those rainfall totals Jax posted yesterday. Glad we've had a bit to dry out from the earlier rainfall.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like SWVA folks are getting some snow this am, any reports up that way? Also if I'm reading Correlation Coefficient correctly (maybe not) looks like Tri could be seeing some snow as of 8 am ish
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Definitely looks like things are trending to some degree of a front end thump tomorrow AM for SWVA and maybe even NE TN. I think it will help y'all if it clears off a bit up that way before sunset and you get a bit of radiational cooling before the precip. begins. Also looks like as the low transfers across the mountains the thermal gradient Blunderstorm and I discussed in the Obs thread will set up between Marion and Wytheville. Will be interesting to see if it sets up in a slightly different way or angle given a different angle of approach for this storm. The front end bit comes through early AM, so hopefully that helps as well as some heavier rates indicated on some of the short range models. There was a little band that moved through central KY and central TN this AM with a similar orientation and set up to what is going to come through tomorrow morning and, at least on radar, (not sure if it reached the ground) that one over performed compared to earlier modeled depictions. In terms of further down the road: I've struggled with what say about it because as Carver's said last week, I think many people are tired of snow and cold (me included), but it is what it is and to extend his metaphor, it looks like the hungover N. hemisphere has now decided it needs what a month ago would have been an amazing 500 mb pattern in the heart of winter for our part of the world, to shake the headache. Like many of you I'm ready for 70s for highs and 40s for lows, so know I'm not all that thrilled about the rest of this, but patterns gonna pattern. A couple things I've noticed to add to what Carver's has posted this AM and yesterday. The "April Fool's Storm" (perfect title for a storm after this winter) has been showing up in some form or another for a bit, but as usual at long leads, models struggle with which piece of energy to emphasize. There have been a few runs (see 3/22 0z Euro) where it has taken a beautiful track (again if it were February) for east TN snows. I'm not trying to hype this storm, in any way, and I'm mostly interested in this for track and 500 mb pattern, what we need to look for to get a nice Gulf Low on a good track for my location. On the other hand, if everything plays out right, could be a good opportunity to chase some snow above 3000 or 4000 feet. Important to note also that even on the best tracks and model runs, this thing is still producing rain in the valleys. I also have begun over the past few runs of the models to notice some strong highs by April standards coming down out of western Canada. The overall look of the way these Highs are being handled kind of reminds me of how things were looking in late Dec. early Jan when those massive highs were dropping in. They never verified as strong, but the overall pattern and cold did verify. The difference here is that it is April and models not always in agreement in how far south those highs make it. Looking out beyond all this I think and I hope this period (11-18 day) where models are starting to pick up on these highs dropping in is the beginning of the end of this pattern. Here's why: GEPS, GEFS, and EPS all agree by the first of April the coldest 850 temp anomalies are in central and western Canada. If Canada manages to dump it out into the northern tier of the US or even occasionally further south, how will it reload; it's early April. Also, it's April, this has to end at some point, right?? The weeklies across both the American and European models seem to me to struggle with pattern changes, but do a good job once a pattern is established (as it is now). Overall big question for weather will be where does the boundary set up in the battle between spring and winter. The smart money is on over or just north of us, since it will be April. As Jeff said earlier in either this thread or the winter one, that = dreary, cloudy, drippy, chilly. 6z GFS shows just this. The 0z Euro mentioned above shows what could also happen if the boundary gets pulled south for a bit and some energy rolls thorough at the right time. Net result may be the same for the valleys, but for higher elevations it could be a different story.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hi-Res, short range models showing a little lobe of vorticity rotating around the larger cut off at H5, sweeping through the eastern forum areas around 12-3 PM (depending on your location). Will be interesting to see if we can get one last burst of enhancement from this.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    We've had some nice snow near downtown Knoxville, but that extra urban heat definitely takes its toll on anything's ability to stick. Not really disappointed for myself, but in fact happy that many of you are getting snow! If anyone wants to see something unique, go to http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=MRX-N0Q-1-200 this AM before the data expires and watch across north Knox county. There some weird mesoscale band that seems to set up after the flow turns as the front comes through yesterday afternoon and runs W to E from maybe Powell toward House Mountain. I've included an image that shows a piece of it and what to look for, but it really isn't evident until you watch the 200 image loop a couple of times. It seems to only last as long as the precip is flowing from W to E. Would be interested to hear any thoughts on this...
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    VA TECH webcam so we can live vicariously until everything changes over: https://vtnews.vt.edu/webcams/burruss.html Also, Le Conte apparently changed over at 6 PM LATE EDIT: Image of VA TECH and radar added for future reference for the band that moved through. I'd say at least an inch in under an hour. Reports in the SE subformum of Thundersnow just northeast in Salem, VA
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this nice write up on 300 -250mb level while trying to learn more about what was causing the lift over SW VA this evening. https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/winds/JetStream_Stuff/300_200_chart.htm
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interested to see if Blunderstorm gets any thunder with the precip moving that way. Very dynamic lift developing over NE TN and SW VA as evident on GOES 16 watervapor over the last two to three hours. May not be enough to cool the column enough for snow for his area, but still would be nice to see if some of that mid level dynamism is reflected on the ground.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    This upper low is already creating some nice instability. The clouds parted and the sun just came out for a bit here in Knoxville and I was able to get what looks to me like a thunderstorm cloud building up! This is looking WNW toward where the front is coming in from.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    When I can get Wunderground's wundermap to not act up, the temp graphs for weather stations are showing temps dropping pretty steadily after the front comes through. Looks like the front is just dropping of the plateau as of now.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Really interesting to see the boundary setting up between Abingdon and Blacksburg. I've always wondered why, if there is cold air damming going on, if it can make it to Abingdon, why it doesn't just keep draining down I-81? It's heavier and denser, right? Maybe it's not CAD, but the wind barbs in the included image seem to indicate a NE wind. I guess the warm air advection just beats out CAD after a certain point... Pretty easy to see too where the rain snow line is going to set up for those folks as the heavy precip develops and moves in.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I've always noticed there are two zones in the eastern subforum areas that seem to be geographic boundaries for weather. The first is the one you mention. It's like there's a balance point somewhere along I-81. Maybe just high enough in elevation to delineate two zones. There is also another one that seems to start at the border between Greene and Hamblen counties on I 81 in TN.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I agree with John, elevation and night will work wonders with this one. Some oddities though: Scott County, VA not in a WWA from MRX?? Don't know that I've ever seen that if Lee and Washington County, VA are in one. Jeff mentioned in the Winter Spec. thread, it's not just a NW Flow, (MRX in their AM discussion has even mentioned that beautiful phrase, "deformation zone") so even though some of the Hi-Res models show the central valley of East TN getting downsloped, I'm wondering if the radar verifies a little more fulsomely here. Also, there is a lot of energy floating around and interacting aloft, so wonder if there might be some squally surprises. For me in Knoxvegas just seeing some snow fall would be nice, getting a coating on grassy surfaces (the wording I used to hate) would be a solid win. The rest of this speculation is only aimed at SW VA, from Abingdon then N and E All high-res models are showing a strong area of precip developing over SW VA this evening near Marion and Wytheville as a strong short wave at 500 mb starts to go negative over the TN Valley (really nice location for many of us if it wasn't March 20). This upper energy consolidates with other pieces coming in from the NW and cuts off over central KY. Also, I learned earlier in the winter from following "crankyweather guy" that sometimes there can be a heavy band of snow along a little front? that forms as energy from a low transfers to the coast. Not sure at all about this part, but it looks to me to be part of what's enhancing the precip I'm talking about since a primary low is dying over WV and a new one is forming along the coast and there seems to be a line of enhancement between the two. The precip (as of 6z models) looks to be so strong that it quickly cools the column and changes everything over to snow. Looks dynamic to me, so maybe thundersnow where this happens? Almost entirely out of our subforum area, but if this moves just a hair back to the SW, maybe Blunderstorm and others in the far NE reaches of SW VA can get in on it? Either way it looks fun to watch develop and maybe even on webcams. The NAM is, as perhaps you'd expect the most amped, but ARW2, RGEM show a similar process.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    For my part I'm even less enthused with whatever snow potential there was for my local area (not much to begin with). I am interested in severe potential tomorrow. Will still take a few flakes if it I can get em, but trends over the past couple of days seems to be worse for central and southern locations in the eastern valley. It's still a potentially dynamic upper low, so maybe some surprises (for me a burst of snow for 10 minutes would count). In terms of storms tomorrow the 12z RGEM looks rather aggressive for TN and later for N. Georgia and I feel like it was the most conservative with its early depiction of convection yesterday (3/17). I cold also be comparing apples to oranges in trying to compare its depiction of convection to the NAMs. (only looking at the MSLP and precip maps). Hi-Res models seem to show some early cells racing ahead and eventual consolidation into a line. Hoping for a line by the time it gets across the plateau as those situations seem to be less damaging in my experience in that there seems to be less of a chance for an isolated tornado.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ask and ye shall receive:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Evening sunset spectacularness added:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Randomly was in Bristol/ Abingdon area today and managed to get a photo of a storm to my north in the distance as it went severe at approx. 330 - 4 PM (photo 1). On my way back to Knoxville another smaller storm developed right over downtown Knoxville and I was able to get a photo of it as well! (630ish) (photo 2).
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