Holston_River_Rambler

Somebody in the Mid Atlantic sub forum is going to need a change of pants after this run finishes

I think it will be pretty epic, but I was just thinking earlier I didn't want epic at hr 240+ But some of the ensemble members in the GEFS and EPS had similar solutions at 12z.

At least it kicks it out and doesn't totally cut it off, but yeah it could be in error. Kind of hope it isn't though lol.

I think this will be a good run.

Looking good through hr 231

Yeah, its got some room to grow.

We're the Keys source region!

First 12z Ensemble means: EPS: GEFS: Canadian ENS: EPS members: EPS members (2): GEFS members: CMC members:

Euro wasn't too far off IMO, suppressed, but not as bad as the GFS dropping a TPV over the outer banks. There have been some wild ensemble runs lately, I'll post once EPS members are in and we'll see what that looks like.

Well, Euro is running on Weatherbell, let's see what the wheel of NWP spins out for us now.

There's a frame with ocean effect snow in the middle Keys.

6z was even better.

Kind of a non sequitur from me this AM but we finally have the MJO as plotted on the RMMs moving out of 6: I don't really put a ton of stock in the RMMs alone, but from the perspective of model watching, I think they can kind of give us a plotted idea of the "numerical" part of Numerical weather prediction, i.e. models and where they're coming at the pattern from. I just found it interesting that whatever slew of variables it looks at had the value stuck in 6 for almost 10 days, despite model forecasts consistently trying to move it out and now it is finally chugging along.

That reminds me, I found something up in Kingsport yesterday:

@Met1985

Just looked at the 12z Euro and that looked nice.

Definitely quite a spread with tropical Pac convection, but it does seem to be trying to glacially slide eastward. First thought when I saw this was Darwin looks less stormy than Tahiti and sure enough we have a rare (for this fall and early winter) negative SOI today. Pretty good drop over the past few days too, relative to recent trends:

The only thing I can think to add is that the MJO RMM plots and whatever combo of factors that go into giving any individual day a place on the plot (OLR, wind anomalies, etc...) have been really stuck in low amp 6 for a few days now. I've not really posted much since I don't know what I can add at this time, but I have been watching the MJO and even though it's been slow it hasn't really gotten stuck over the past few weeks. It is now firmly stuck. Maybe those same "stalled" anomalies are competing with each other in how the OP GFS model resolves and propagates their influences them and causing some western trough tendencies? Feels kind of like I'm grasping at straws, but western troughs... ugh.

Euro AIFS ensemble? https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.15832

Right now it feels like watching another record -PDO.

That was some '96 like weather at the end of the 12z GFS.

Also, it is still "slikerin' owl snot" on my deck this AM.

Some interesting radar obs this AM. Ft. Campbell snow band overnight: A streamer off of Lake Michigan kinda sorta held together to make it to N. TN east of Nashville this AM: ZOOMed in:

Just walked out and same here, minus any flakes.

Flurries up here in MoCo now and a howling N wind.