Holston_River_Rambler

Going to be interesting to see what the NAM pops out at the end of its run, it’s digging the shortwave toward the NW Gulf.

Euro will try, but I suspect the kicker will keep it more positively tilted and flatter than the GFS.

Euro looks like it will pull more moisture west to me.

There is satellite imagery on it:

With regards to Sunday, our shortwave is near the North Pole right now and will have a rather complicated evolution: Using the 6z Euro as a neutral example: Starting location: Complicated evolution:

As soon as it tries to pop blocking over Greenland, it pops a trough over AK

I agree with folks that say this is likely a coastal plain storm as of now *until* I see more consistency and/or other more reliable models showing it. Trends have been our friend since early this AM, but they can turn into enemies quick. Especially wit ha complicated/ fast flow slinging these shortwaves at us.

QPF probability trend on GEFS: Questions to ask 1. what is the moisture source? that one has a pretty simple answer, return flow as the shortwave digs on the OP GFS: 2. What is the forcing? Shortwave dropping in further west to cause the return flow overrunning isentropic upglide strengthening jet: I think it all depends on how the shortwave drops in and then moves, those things determines by upstream ridging and downstream confluence

Some support among the GEFS members:

We'll see what ye olden Euro has to say. CMC did trend a bit west from 6z.

GFS about to pull the Sunday system back west quite a bit, I think.

Sorry if that was a lot, but what I was trying to say was that there is a very outside chance of an extra wave on Sunday. Also, to John's point about : If I saw this satellite without any other context, I would think someone in TN of the MA was about to get a decent snow: The dry slot from central MS and AL to the Cumberland Plateau is a little concerning, but still those are some colder cloud tops in the baroclinic leaf.

We need to hope for something like 6z GEFS member 13 and then a last minute NW trend. **Please note what I'm looking at is beyond what the RGEM is showing for Saturday (discussed above by John and others)** RGEM for Saturday: Long shot Sunday: Probably shouldn't be teasing John, but it does seem like some of the coastal areas have been doing better lately, lol.

But...... several GEFS and EPS members imply a potential NW trend, just maybe not enough for anyone in east TN:

Take heart John, 6z GFS gives Dirty Myrtle 4.4" !!

Yeah I just put it in Banter. That is some DGEX level stuff. True weenie dreams.

18z GFS: Just south of Pittsburg...

18z Euro for this weekend for primarily eastern areas:

18z GFS trending to back the flow for Saturday night too:

I pulled some soundings off the HRRR for the Bays Mt band. I may pull some more if it keeps showing it. I'm not good at reading soundings other than the bare minimum of hodographs and thermal/ moisture profiles/ DGZ, so I was wondering if there is any other info in these soundings that might add something to how we understand the band. Just for comparison here is a sounding just SW in northern Greene county: I'll be heading up to Kingsport Thursday AM, so hopefully I can do some more investigating.

HRRR has the Bays Mt band on it, I think...

Euro backing the flow a bit on the weekend shortwave, like the RGEM and CMC

GFS teasing us again with that eastern Pac connection around hour 160

Here are the pretty colors from 12z RGEM