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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Really pretty circulation with the upper low. I wish we had a couple more hours of light in Knoxville to watch it pass overhead: https://imgur.com/ov7qB8M
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I thought I heard some in Knoxville earlier. Wrote it off since the radar looked just showery earlier. But apparently some lightning:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found a really nice interactive website with lessons from NWS that breaks down how to read charts from the surface, up to 200mb. It even explains the cryptic Omega in a pretty easy to understand way. https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/constant_intro The same site has several other categories if you click on the drop down "Topics" menu.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    So this system next Friday/ Saturday looks a little interesting. Around half of the EPS members give some area in our region some snow with it, whether it be dynamic cooling snow as it wraps up the coast, or NW flow. As it stands now, it's not too far from being a big Gulf low riding up I 95. Curious to see how it evolves over the next few days, for better or worse. I'll post an Fv3 image here. Euro a little further west/ more cut off with the energy dig. Not a terrible look for 5 - 6 days.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally managed to grab an EPS stratosphere map (from the NE forum) for comparison. I think it's happening. EPS, GEPS, and GEFS agree. Big question is how big (warm) is it and does this affect us (mid-late Jan- Feb)? And how does it all evolve as it happens? I think it offers a reshuffle, but the question is, which deck did we start the game with, and which game were we playing? That is to say, how do our current and particular iteration of ENSO along with low solar and other base states this year impact and change this as it evolves?
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yep, Butler is the way to go. Wholeheartedly agree. I think the cold usually goes to Eurasia, but not always. I think I remember reading that it has something to do with the fact that Eurasia has more land in the high latitudes, but could also be misremembering something else. I think it did go to Eurasia at first last year and then it slowly bled west and helped create a block that retrograded into a big -NAO. As the flow blocked up, the storm track drifted south and eventually we got a good track, but it was something like mid March. I remember thinking, man, if that had only happened about Dec 25th... Well...... One of her papers suggests that on average SSWs in El Ninos, (no distinction made for displacements vs splits) tends to lead to Greenland blocking and -AO over the 60 days following and, if I'm reading it correctly, that this is more likely during a Nino winter than a Nina. https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf Of course a SSW still has to happen and Butler isn't sold that it will be a major one just yet. In terms of blocking I think I'd prefer a more amplified PNA ('93; hey I can dream) to get waves under us and aimed at the Gulf to reduce the risk of the dreaded Miller B or A/B hybrid (worse for my location because it gives false hope), but these can work for others in the area so I will be happy for them if they do well. And if I can get snow out of some wonky Miller B with uber cold, I'll take it. EDIT Here we go: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/ Butler's compendium in the public domain. Anyone can go in, select a date for a SSW and an anomaly, and get a reanalysis plot for 0-30, 0-45, or 0-60 days If nothing else it gives us a list of events for comparison.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    What's crazy about what it is showing right now is that it is not only showing one wave of warming, but another one, just as strong at the end, that pushes the SPV toward our half of the hemisphere. Maybe this is pretty subjective/ confirmation bias (i.e. maybe I've only paid attention when it was showing warming) but, I feel like it's been pretty solid, from even long leads this/ last month with how all the SPV situation has progressed so far.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I should have added to my "parts" above, a southern stream that just keeps on keeping. Remember when this system we were dealing with now, looked like it would cut to the lakes? If you'd told me that it would end up as a cut off rolling over our heads at that time, I wouldn't have thought it. Usually once we get a good storm (not trying to say everybody did, but it was favorable for some) we have to reset. We kind of are, but these lows taking the low road just don't want to stop.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I feel like everything is in a wait and see mode, like the parts in a rube-goldberg machine are being built and about to be set off. There's so much going on that seems to be setting up more and once it all starts, where shall it go? We have a Nino that is a little west based, a little east based for now: We have a stratospheric polar vortex that is getting manhandled and redirected like a Cobra Kai kid trying to fight off Mr. Miyagi. We have an MJO that is weakish (going by CPC latest discussion http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf, pages 16-17), but hopefully lining up to come back to the more favorable phases by early Jan. I think it will be interesting to see how all this plays out once it happens and how the models deal with it as it begins to impact their starting conditions. I feel like Gandalf and Pippin in Return of the King: Pippin: "It's so quiet." Gandalf: "It's the deep breath before the plunge."
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    If you're just wanting a NW flow cabin rental set up, I'd say Roan. In fact Roan Mt State Park has cabins to rent, but unsure of how they work in the winter. There are some cabins/ homes on the road up to Carver's Gap, but I think they may be buy or sell properties. Mountain City might not be a bad idea either. You're not too far from Boone, if there was a CAD type event. You're also close enough for a short chase to Abingdon/ Marion or Roan Mt. If you don't mind going to VA, some place like Wise usually does good in NW flow events.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    When I saw that on the NWS climate data, I thought I was reading it incorrectly. Didn't think there could be that much diff. across the state. As far as I can tell though, that was it. Also want to quickly ay that I was not trying to put words in anyone's mouth with my thought last night, just trying to say I saw what looked like a misunderstanding, so apologies if it came off as though I was trying to say anything else. No big changes as far as can tell this AM (EDIT for the above: mostly talking about cold returning overall and the strat. Carver's has got the 500 mb and temp trends covered). Stratosphere still looks like some sort of warming is coming, but actual effects at midlevels and surface/ how the warming itself evolves still up in the air. I would say that even if it happens (looks likely to me, though again how it plays out and eventual results are murky at best). One interesting feature that the GFS is struggling with is some cut off 500 mb energy over TX/ N Mexico/ Gulf in the day 8-10 time frame. GFS really wants it to just set there and spin for a bit. Today's 6z run it links it up with some N stream energy coming in hot and pops an east coast storm. This is just one run of one model at 8 -10 days so very, very unlikely at this point. But I am interested to see how this evolves. Having some energy sit over the Gulf or N. Mexico could get interesting in a variety of ways if the timing is good, but no point in talking details on anything like this I'd say until much closer. Sure it could get tapped into as part of a bigger storm, but it could also just scoot out to the Atlantic. Sometimes we use football analogies and I think a good one for this situation is the "if you want to beat a big team, keep it close into the 4th quarter". The longer that energy sits there, the more chances it has to cause mischief. It's there on the Fv3, maybe 5-6 6zGFS ensemble members have it, and I'd say maybe 30-40% of Euro ensemble members have it too, but everything deals with it in different ways at different times, as you'd expect with a cutoff at 8-10 days just close enough to the overall flow to be impacted by it.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I respect and value everyone who posts in this region. I honestly can't think of anybody here who doesn't meaningfully contribute. (Some other regions it can get a little wild and wooly). Looks to me like there's just been a misunderstanding. This form of social media is the only one I really care about because we all try and care.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Satellite snow image for this one. Perfectly clear air for it this evening:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I bet -0.5 overall by the end of the month. It's 11 days in and only a couple have been warmish/ average so far. Maybe average to slightly above this week and then the storm this weekend should keep us a bit below, then a week of average to ever so slightly below. Then it's only one week left in the month and even if that week isn't terribly cold it could be a little cooler and if there are storms, even if they are rainy, that still = cooler than average. Looks like for Knoxville average today is around 51 and that average only drops to 47 by the end of the month. I don't see a ton of days above the low to mid 50s coming up. As of today: Knoxville = -0.3 Chattanooga = -0.5 Tri-Cities = +0.4 Oak Ridge = +0.3 Nashville = -0.8 Clarksville = -1.1 Crossville = -3.2 Memphis = -4.4 Jackson = -4.2 Huntsville = -1.4
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://imgur.com/a/VYVrCG3 This AMs fog on GOES 16. It is COLD in areas that got snow in NE TN and SW VA. Some interesting observations on the NT microphysics setting: 1. Looks almost like the fog is blowing off South Holston lake. I've seen that happen on other area lakes when it is really cold and get lake effect snow. Dendrite growth zone has to be super low for it though. 2. At a couple of points there are some fun swirls that come of the SW edge just south of Knoxville 3. At around Knoxville, Muscle Shoals, and Jackson, TN among others there are little dots that pulse that the satellite picks up on. Normally I'd think it was the city, but then where are they for Nashville/ Chattanooga/ Memphis?
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    That wins the weatherwebs for the day! If we get thundersnow this year, this is becoming a signature.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    The question is, does thundersnow count?
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    If this big upper this weekend keeps looking like it will produce some nice elevation snow, I might take a little hike up above 5000 feet to see what happens. Yeah, as y'all pointed out, seeing different people saying that around Christmas time will be when a better pattern will start to set up. GFS starting to spit out big old highs in western Canada and dropping them down in it's fantasy range. I've seen those totally disappear as we get closer and I've seen them verify, but at maybe 10 to 15 mb smaller than the fantasy depictions. Case in point, Fv3 has one just 13 mb lower. Decent signal on EPS, GEFS, and GEPS for a storm (maybe a cutter for us) around the 20-22, so if a cutter verifies, it could bring down some cold and set up for something afterwards. MJO op. forecast looks like it just wants to basically do exactly what it did last month, at exactly the same time, so if it works out that way Christmas would put us on the cusp of phase 8. I think we might get another cutter, but further south around Christmas and then the next storm or so might be better for us, maybe around the New Year if this works out (NWS meteorologist for Louisville, KY: Of course all this assumes the MJO has a major impact on us and unfolds how I speculated above. The EPS MJO chart shows a lot of uncertainty. Everything from twisting back into phase 2, to jumping ahead to phase 6, to a high amplitude phase 4 are on the table on the EPS by the 23 Dec, even though the mean looks similar to it's progression last month. Wondering how the stratosphere will develop as well. Not been paying much attention over the past week, but man, even the ensembles (no access to EPS though) are honking that there will be a warming, but not a split. As I think Carver's has said (if I'm misrepresenting this I apologize) these can be wild cards and have effects that are felt at different times and different intensities across the N Hemisphere, so just something to watch at this time. I will throw this image out though. It is a composite of 60 days before and 60 days 500mb height anomalies after a SSW in 13 El Nino years (as far as I could tell no distinction made for SSWs that caused splits and those that caused displacements of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex, for new folk that is the large circulation at the very top of the troposphere over the N pole.) Looks like they tend to cause blocking at 500mb, but again that image is the average of 60 days over 13 events, so plenty could be different in this case and that's even if it happens. Link to paper I took the image from: https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Light snow in Knoxville.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 3k 12z NAM and RGEM are pretty aggressive with the secondary feature overnight. Though "aggressive" here still isn't much.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    It looks like the storm is about to pop a low off the SC/GA coast, so maybe, but not sure.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the expression is "rippin' fatties"!!!!!!!!
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Very heavy snow in east Knoxville.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just drove from east Knoxville toward Sevierville exit and there were a wide range of conditions. When I left, heavy snow was starting in Knoxville and continued until a hill just above exit 402. Then it switched over to more rain/ sleet. Turned around and came back. Back on the hill just east of Strawberry Plains it was all snow and I-40 was beginning to get some snow. Once I got back to Knoxville, some roofs and grassy surfaces had a little snow, but mostly rain and sleet with an occasional fat snowflake.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got snow now in east Knox. Not totally changed over, but getting there. Hopefully it will hold out
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