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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro wants to park the TPV over Alaska, but I could also see a situation where it is kicking energy out and is about to drop the TPV more toward the Aleutians: At least it kicks enough of a trough through to shut of the spigot.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it finally did, it is really trying to creep it toward the better phases
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we can get some blocking going, (but better placed this time) again if the WWB verifies and adds some momentum:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    And finally, my knee hurt and woke me up at 2AM, a sure sign a pattern change is incoming in approx. 2 weeks. Only 2/5ths joking.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    And to be fair to the oft maligned CFS, the Euro weeklies show a similar progression, but less amplified and one that starts further out in time. Let's not forget last year either, when the Euro weeklies had their tail(s)? handed to em by the CFS weeklies.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    And while we're looking at the CFS, might as well check out why it does that: Looks like it drops the SPV towards sea of Okhutsk/ Aleutians, by then splits it and a part drops into Hudson's Bay. Again, I don't necessarily have faith in any particular CFS solution, more of an experiment this time since I wish I had done it when the CFS was showing the current pattern at a long lead.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ok, so no one will probably believe me on this, and I don't blame you, but the CFS, three weeks ago, was already showing this trough in the SW pattern. I think it was even back when it was showing the MJO doing the big loop through 8 and 1. I remember because it looked weird to me that it would drop a trough there with that MJO progression. I wish I had taken a gif of it then, just to go back as see if it did ok with the overall pattern idea. In no way talking specific storms at 700 hour leads, but if nothing else a western ridge would keep us from being on the right entrance region of a sub tropical jet and keep the flooding at bay: Above image is the CFS pattern change
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hurricane PV: Euro 10hPa wind forecast, days 7 - 10
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    C'mon trough, swing east and dry us out: All ensembles have been doing this for a couple of days. Euro most insistent that the EPO is still bad, but even it is relenting on the PNA enough to hopefully dry us out. The base pattern has to change eventually anyway, right? If we flipped to this mess in early December, maybe we flip at the first of March?
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    To add to what Jax was saying, Euro this AM is aiming the RMM toward more favorable phases, but would like to see more consistency:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Uncle Nasty probably won't be too long, I can see it on I 24 traffic cameras heading up the valley. Hard to tell, but almost looks like it is already sticking to the medians,
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    mPing showing some reports of snow in Chattanooga and Dalton, GA
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    How far N and NW will it get? Looks like Chatt is about to get a good burst
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's another way to look at it too. They are working together, so the southern one might have been too amped if the N one wasn't suppressing it.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    The good news is that at least the ++++++++++++++++++++++NAO is encouraging last nights storm to git, git, git on out of here, like a blond squatch, so it kinda sorts acts like a 50/50
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think that's another piece of energy that's keeping the one we want to amp up, from amping like some of the models were showing a few days ago. The northern one is timed just right (our typical luck) to keep the southern one from digging and turning the corner.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Me too. Just trying to figure something out for why they would write that, lol. Sunrise at Chatt is ~730 am so should be primo time for anything to stick
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I had the same reaction though.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe they meant time of day?
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX mentioning sun angle: On Saturday, a h50 shortwave trough in cyclonic flow will move through the Tennessee valley. Increasing dynamics aloft from PVA and an 130 knot upper level jet to the south will allow for precipitation to develop across Georgia and move north. Temperature profiles favor this initial precipitation in the form of snow, however, as warmer air moves north, most of this initial snow is forecast to change over to a snow/rain mix and eventually all rain by the afternoon. The forecast snow amounts are uncertain across the southern valley while better confidence exists across the higher terrain above 2500 feet. Here snow amounts could range from 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts of 3+ inches above 4000 feet. Again as mentioned previously, much lower confidence exists across the southern valley regarding snow totals. While initial precipitation will be in the form of snow, it is expected that this will change over to rain as warmer air moves north. It is also expected that the snow will have a difficult time accumulating because of the warmer surface temperatures and higher sun angle. Because of the low confidence, felt it best to only issue a special weather statement for Saturday and mention snow showers for the valley of eastern Tennessee. As of this afternoon, total snowfall ranges around a dusting to less than a half inch of snow across the central and southern valley. Later shifts will monitor and may issue an advisory if confidence increases for heavier accumulations. The winter weather advisory for the mountain zones of TN and NC will go into effect at 12Z Saturday and will run through 00Z Sunday. Bolding from me.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like Euro came in with a little more moisture in the eastern valley than 0z. Had to make a run to the Wally World for milk sandwiches for the snowpacalypse so can’t post it. It has been consistently warmer in its precip outputs, but would be interested to see pivotal’s soundings
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tomorrow could be a fun one of those systems where a little extra RH gets sucked up the valley and lifted in the foothills areas
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET has it between 12 and 18z tomorrow
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET for tomorrow
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Been trying to dig though my gifs for a OP Euro of this one at 200+ range, but no dice.
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