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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out the streamer off of Lake Michigan on the UKMET, aimed right at Frozen Head
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the Ukie SLP gif. The gif jumps north at the end because the SLP drops off the SE sector view:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie also has that SLP reflection off the GA coast to pull on the Gulf low some, hopefully a good sign that a global sees that too.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I'm only out to 30 hours or so, and it is definitely SE some. Will post the gif when it finishes on F5 weather.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's popping a low pretty far south in the Gulf 1013 mb SE of Brownsville as compared to 1012 off the coast of Corpus Christi at 0z
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Ukie might be a good test for the front theory. Looks like it is already pressing it further south on this run compared to 0z. Only out to 12 hours for now.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe I answered my own question lol. Interesting to look at 10m wind on the same three mesoscale models: Nam 3k: WRF: RGEM: It does seem like there is a correlation between how far south the front makes it and how eastward the SLP moves. The WRF-ARW gets it a little further south and has the most easterly of tracks: It also gives a little more umphh to a surface low off the GA coast which tugs on the Gulf low a bit. Could be a question of how the convection impacts the SLP formation?
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is where it looks like the front is on the latest SPC mesoscale analysis's windbarbs:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good question, but I'm not sure how I could figure that out. I think it would have to be a mesoscale model. I'm looking at the RGEM and NAM and WRF on TT, but having trouble seeing it in enough detail on the simulated satellite. Here are the gifs with a fresh satellite. See what you think: 3km NAM: RGEM: WRF: Maybe there is a better parameter to figure out where the front is now? I'm not sure those cloud depictions are all that helpful since they seem pretty course. Current satellite (sandwich depiction with visible and IR)
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not looking at any other aspect of what the GFS is showing for now, that is some upslope heaven at 60 hours: a fetch at 850 right off of lakes Superior and Michigan
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    It gets really close to jumping it up the eastern slope of the Apps. The surface front has made it to around 100 miles (maybe) off the Gulf Coast, it will be interesting to see exactly where the SLP forms on that front
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    There is moisture over E TN up to 700 mb and even 500 mb over parts of eastern KY, so the upper low backing the flow could provide lift for it: 700 mb relative humidity
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    It is really bullish on the n stream upper low as it swings through
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z RGEM looks like it will come in a bit east as of around 40 hours into the run. Looks like more N stream interaction sooner on this run compared to 6z.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro showing some similar mixing, to the 3km NAM over western TN:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's almost SREF plume time boys and girls!!!! Above is for Crossville
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    For you western TN folks, the 18z 3km NAM looking interesting towards 10 PM and midnight Sunday night into the wee hours of Monday AM: Looks like it is associated with the 500 mb vort, as the N stream races in to try and catch it. Meanwhile, for those of us further east, the 18z RGEM still handling the secondary N. stream energy a little more aggressively: And it's not all upslope driven. Not quite sure if we get in the left exit region of the jet to the south over GA and the Carolinas, but we're close.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry I was talking about a different one, just as an addendum to what you had already said. Should have been clearer in how I phrased it.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS looked like it was seeing a signal for anther Gulf storm at the end of its run. Too far out to say much more than that for now.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I will say the 6z RGEM has an interesting solution at the end of its run. The initial low does run up west of the Apps, but N Stream energy drops in and cuts off and provides some lift:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking more and more like it will make a run up just west of or over the Apps. Still time for some surprises though. On the bright side, the EPS members see hope for at least a solid dusting for the usual upslope areas and even a chance for valley areas:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sunrise over our little N stream friend in the Gulf of Alaska:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    FWIW the 12z Ukie is even further east now, from being the furthest west:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is a little bit bantery, but it is a holiday, so why not? Aren't we in that weird window we sometimes notice between days 3 - 5 when models lose storms or flip-flop, only for them to pop back up.
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