Holston_River_Rambler

Nice slug of moisture incorporated into the Friday/ Saturday rain maker now: WPC edging up precip forecast:

Nice symmetry in the west Pac this am and it looksl ike it is having an impact where we want it.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL117289 Here's a recent publication I found. Normally just lurk here. So far, great outlook.

Euro is close but out to sea. Man I hope the GFS is on to something and it isn't just more feedback.

That lp track is the stuff drams are made of in east TN and the southern Apps. Just a tinge more cold air at that run.....

NBM is about the same as the WPC

hey we even have a slight risk for excessive rain for Friday through Saturday AM

Good looking moisture connection for this Friday/ Saturday system

Y'all got any of them Rossby waves???

6z AIs are a flashback to the old biases of the old OP Euro and GFS. GFS is progressive and dry with the eastern US and the Euro got shortwaves stuck in the southwest. If the new bias of the current models holds true (feedback cutoffs over the west coast and baja), pretty good run of the 6z GFS too. Ensembles still suggest best opportunities start around the 15th.

I was thinking the 6z GFS wasn't too far off from a similar soultion: A little progressive, but it is the GFS. Might be worth my time to look at individual ensemble members.

I've seen worse: And at least it managed a bit of snow on the NW side of that system.

12z Euro wasn't too bad either

GFS had an ideal fantasy situation. Caribbean tropical wave about to try and phase with a bunch of other shortwaves.

AAannnnddddd weatherbell:

Wait a minute, I was wrong. I found some snow on the COD algorithm

I particularly liked the 995mb low over the GA blue ridge with no snow anywhere in the eastern US.

And the past 25 years:

here's the zoomed out view over the past 175 years or so.

Not the dreaded PDO (Edit: this is the past 10 years)

One thing I'd watch with all the -EPO model predictions is whether or not, if and once we get one, it rolls back over to Eastern Siberia. I mention it because I saw it on the overnight GFS and it has happened that way a few times over the past few years. I remember one year where BAM was all in on an arctic pattern until this kept happening. But, as Jax said overnight, long range has been pretty rough on models (as I guess it usually is). In the past week we've had almost a whole decade of possibilities: Monday, 18z GFS = mini Jan 2016: Tuesday 12z GFS, we had a mini Feb 2021 ice storm: Overnight last night 0z GFS had us getting primed for the 2019 floods again: That's a lot of swings and extreme possibilities in four days worth of model runs. I know people say use ensembles, but I'm not necessarily interested in the safer smoothed out means, because they often hide things like the EPO ridge rolling over. I definitely agree that it would cut down on wild swings, but I'm kind of a sicko for long range OP runs. I'd like to see the RGEM and NAMs run out to 240hrs, lol.

Ah yes! I have found the jet charts! Sadly it does not look like it has been updated since early November Here is the link for someone if they can see something I didn't on the website for more recent info. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/awinters/realtime/D1_Deterministic_NPJPD.php

Do we not want tropical convection in the western Pac at this point? If Webb had #PolarVortex the above he would have had 2.1 million views! The maps Jax posted earlier seem to show the tropical convection potentially being enhanced in the region from Webb's image above. Jax, I know you know what I have circled, but I put the circle and arrow on there for people who may not. Not a good sign for the upcoming pattern though if we have brought out the GLAAM charts. (joking...)(ish) We may have to find the sacred jet vector charts soon so we can see if it is poleward or equatorward!

It's amazing how quickly the deterministics flipped. It seems like they were locked in on some sort of storm tracking east of the Mississippi for a week's worth of runs and the we had that massive storm on an 18z run Monday. I don't think there was any sort of a step down process. It's like they were drinking over Christmas and then sobered up and said "pattern conducive for eastern snow? No says I !" It may be the MJO is about to come out in 6 like y'all said over night. I saw GaWx mentioning that yesterday on the GFS suite's RMMs. Perfect timing I guess, lol. It looks like it is getting riled up on the less favorable regions: If that is really what is going on, it'll take it at least a couple of weeks to cycle through into the Western Pac and would line up with what the OP Euro and GFS (non AI) showed over night. La Nina and MJO over the Maritime continent seems to = ye olden qpf fire hose. The other thing I noticed was that the long prophesied jet extension isn't quite as extensive as promised and that I supposed that would tend to pull the whole pattern back west some too.

Very timely observation.